Subject Guide MGMT2000 5 Business Decision Analysis - Subject Guide 2021 PDF

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MGMT20005 Business Decision Analysis SUBJECT GUIDE Semester 2, 2021

Prepared by Dr Zahra Hosseinifard [email protected]

Department of Management and Marketing (Amend Faculty/MBS details and logo below as relevant for UG/PG subjects)

Faculty of Business and Economics

Subject Outline Introduction Welcome to MGMT20005 Business Decision Analysis (BDA). This subject provides both the conceptual frameworks and practical illustrations of business analysis techniques including decision trees, simulation and optimisation. These frameworks will be applied to various decisions faced by organisations, with applications in the areas of entrepreneurship, strategy, operations, marketing and finance. Subject Overview and Aims The overall aim of this subject is to teach students the frameworks and techniques of decision analysis. Drawing on these frameworks and techniques, students will be able to analyse various business problems and, based on these analyses, make effective decisions. Students are also expected to be able to interpret the resulting solutions and communicate with people from different backgrounds in plain language.

Learning Outcomes Learning Outcomes and Generic Skills To view the subject objectives and the generic skills you will develop through successful completion of this subject, please see the University Handbook:

https://handbook.unimelb.edu.au/2021/subjects/mgmt20005/

Eligibility and Requirements To view the eligibility and requirements, including prerequisites, corequisites, recommended background knowledge and core participation requirements for this subject, please see the University Handbook:

https://handbook.unimelb.edu.au/2021/subjects/mgmt20005/eligibility-and-requirements

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Academic Staff Contact Details Please see the subject LMS site for full contact details of the teaching staff in this subject. Subject Coordinator Contact Details Name: Dr Zahra Hosseinifard Email: [email protected] Consultations: to be advised Email Protocol Please note that we are only able to respond to student emails coming from a University email address. Please do not use personal email addresses such as gmail or even business email addresses. Emails from non-University email addresses may be filtered by the University’s spam filter, which means that we may not receive your email. All correspondence relating to this subject will only be sent to your University email address. Note that you must first activate your University email address before you can send or receive emails at that address. You can activate your email account at this link: http://accounts.unimelb.edu.au/. While academic staff endeavor to address queries received via email, it is more appropriate to resolve substantive questions during lectures and tutorials and during normal consultation hours. With this in mind, we encourage students to attend all lectures and tutorials and to familiarise themselves with the consultation hours offered by the lecturers and tutors in this subject.

Lectures Lecture Times On Wednesdays at 9am, the lecture recordings/materials will be posted in Canvas

Lecture Participation Requirements Students are required to listen the lectures’ recordings and attend the tutorial sessions through Zoom each week during the semester. Students are expected to read the equivalent chapters of the recommended textbooks and the lecture slides and attempt the questions in the lecture slides in order to effectively participate and contribute to the discussions during the tutorials.

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Lecture Schedule Week

Date

Topic

Required Reading

Further Reading

1

28 July, 2021

Introduction to BDA & Decision Tree

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 13

Clemen & Reilly (2014), Chapters 1-3

2

4 August, 2021

Making Choices

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 13

Clemen & Reilly (2014), Chapters 4-5

3

11 August, 2021

Value of Information

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 13

Clemen & Reilly (2014), Chapters 12

4

18 August, 2021

Utility Theory and Risk Attitudes

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 13

Clemen & Reilly (2014), Chapters 14

5

25 August, 2021

Introduction to Linear Programming (LP)

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapters 1&2

-

6

1 September, 2021

Sensitivity Analysis in LP

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 3

-

7

8 September, 2021

LP Applications

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 4

-

8

15 September, 2021

Network Models

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 6

-

9

29 September, 2021

Integer Programming (IP) Applications

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 7

-

10

6 October, 2021

Monte Carlo Simulation I

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 12

Clemen & Reilly (2014), Chapters 11

11

13 October, 2021

Monte Carlo Simulation II

Anderson et al. (2019), Chapter 12

Clemen & Reilly (2014), Chapters 11

12

20 October, 2021

Revision

-

-

Lecture Slides / Materials Lecture slides will be placed on the LMS page for this subject under “Modules” with each week’s heading in the Canvas.

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Recorded Lectures Audio and video recordings of lectures delivered in this subject will be made available via LMS. These recordings allow you to revise lectures during the semester, or to review them in preparation for the end of semester exam. You can access recorded lectures by clicking on the Lecture Capture menu item on the LMS page for this subject.

Tutorials Tutorial Times Tutorials start in Week 1 and end in Week 12. Please refer to the LMS or https://sws.unimelb.edu.au/2021/ for the date and time, of your tutorials. Tutorials will be delivered on 2 modes: on-campus and live online through Zoom. Note that you can attend the tutorial session being allocated to you. Tutorial materials are placed in “Modules” under each week’s heading in the LMS (Canvas). Get to know your tutors since tutors play an important role in advising the lecturer on student performance at the end of the semester. Tutorial Participation Requirements Students are required to attend all the tutorials during the semester. Different from other management subjects, this subject requires extensive practices on questions, so it is important that students are thoroughly prepared for the tutorials by completing all set exercises. Tutors will maintain both attendance and participation records. The subject coordinator reserves the right to use nonattendance/contribution as a decision criterion when finalizing grades in marginal cases. Tutorial Schedule There are multiple streams of tutorial in each week. It is important to stay in the tutorial that is allocated to you. Tutorial questions will be made available before lectures start, while tutorial solutions will be posted after the final stream of tutorial. Please check the “Modules” in LMS for detailed information. Private Tutoring Services Faculty has become increasingly concerned about the existence of a number of private tutoring services operating in Melbourne that heavily target University of Melbourne students enrolled in FBE subjects. Students are urged to show caution and exercise their judgement if they are considering using any of these services, and to please take note of the following:

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Any claim by any of these businesses that they have a “special” or “collaborative” or “partnership” style relationship with the University or Faculty is false and misleading. Any claim by a private tutoring service that they are in possession of, or can supply you with, forthcoming University exam or assignment questions or “insider” or “exclusive” information is also false and misleading. The University has no relationship whatsoever with any of these services and takes these claims very seriously as they threaten to damage the University’s reputation and undermine its independence. It is also not appropriate for students to provide course materials (including University curricula, reading materials, exam and assignment questions and answers) to operators of these businesses for the purposes of allowing them to conduct commercial tutoring activities. Doing so may amount to misconduct and will be taken seriously. Those materials contain intellectual property owned or controlled by the University. We encourage you to bring to the attention of Faculty staff any behaviour or activity that is not aligned with University expectations or policy as outlined above.

Assessment Assessment Overview Your assessment for this subject comprises the following: Assessment Task

Individual or Group

Assignment 1

Due

Weighting

Individual

5pm, 3 September 2021 (Week 6)

15%

Assignment 2

Group

5pm, 23 October 2021 (Week 12)

25%

End-of-semester examination

Individual

Examination period

60%

(Hurdle requirement) Assessment Details 1. End-of-semester examination (60%) This will consist of questions like the worked examples done in lectures and tutorials. Further details will be provided as the examination approaches. Note: Hurdle requirement means students must pass the end of semester examination in order to pass this subject.

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2. Individual assignment (15%) The assignment will involve using the decision analysis models to solve decision-making problems. In this assessment, students should demonstrate sufficient understanding of the theoretical principles, including problem identification, model selection and design, application, and the ability to draw meaningful inferences based on the model output. This assignment will be available on LMS (Canvas) during week 3. 3. Group assignment of up to 3 students: A 3000-word report (25%) The assignment is designed to allow you to demonstrate that you can effectively analyse business problems, apply mathematical modelling approaches such as LP and IP to formulate the problems. You must master Excel “Add In” features such as Solver to obtain the optimal solutions, generate a sensitivity analysis report, and suggest courses of action for management. The report should include the following sections: •

Introduction – description of the business optimisation problem. Problem set will be provided later.

•

Methodology – description and illustration of the mathematical modelling approach for the problem.

•

Implementation – formulation of the problem by using the mathematical modelling approach, application of the Excel Solver to optimize the mathematical model, and execution of the sensitivity analysis.

•

Discussions and Conclusions – suggestions for courses of action to the selected company as well as the evaluation of the mathematical modelling approach.

•

References

•

Appendix (if required)

The total length of the report (or executive summary) is a maximum of 2,000 words (excluding figures, tables, references, and appendices). It is important to pay special attention to spelling, grammar, and punctuation, to avoid ambiguity and confusion. The assignment must be word processed in 12-point type and double-spaced. Please leave a margin of 3cm on both the left- and right-hand sides for marker’s comments. Students can include relevant graphs, tables, and other exhibits as appendices. They must be clearly labelled, and will not be included in the word count. This assignment will be available on LMS (Canvas) during week 6. Assignment Submission Assignment submission is via the LMS Assignments link for all written assignments.

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Please note that you are required to keep a copy of your assignment after it has been submitted as you must be able to produce a copy of your assignment at the request of teaching staff at any time after the submission due date. Penalties for Late Submission and Exceeding Word Limits In order to ensure equality for all students, assignments and examinations (where relevant) must be submitted by specified deadlines. Late submissions will attract the following marking penalties (unless approval for late submission has been granted): All assignments (excluding examinations): 10% penalty per day of the total maximum mark for the piece of assessment. Examinations: Late submissions will attract a 10% penalty of the total maximum mark for the exam for each 30 minutes immediately after the submission deadline (e.g. an exam submitted two minutes after the deadline will lose 7 marks of an exam worth 70%). Submissions made or attempted 1 hour after the submission deadline will not be marked. Students who were prevented from submitting due to technical difficulties will need to apply for technical consideration with supporting documentation. Students who were prevented from submitting due to technical difficulties will need to apply for technical consideration with supporting documentation. Assignments that exceed word limits may also attract a marking penalty in line with University policy. Students with a genuine and acceptable reason for not completing an assignment (or other assessment task), such as illness, can apply for special consideration (see Policies below). Assignments that exceed the word limits by up to 10%, inclusive of footnotes, will attract a marking penalty of 10% of the marks that would otherwise have been awarded. Assignments that exceed the word limits by more than 10% will attract a penalty of 50%. Feedback Feedback prior to submission: Students are able to seek assistance from the tutors to ascertain whether their assignment conforms to submission guidelines, through Consultation sessions: dates are available in the LMS (Canvas site) under ‘Staff information’. Feedback after submission: Your assignment feedback will be returned within 3 weeks of due date in a rubric via LMS (Canvas) with an overall mark together with comments.

Subject Resources Prescribed References This subject draws content from the following prescribed textbook: Anderson D.R., Sweeney D.J., Williams T.A., Camm J.D., & Martin K. (2019), An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making, 15th Edition, SouthWestern Cengage Learning.

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You can purchase the hard copies of the book online via the publisher’s website https://cengage.com.au/. The publisher also offers e-Books and e-Chapters with lower prices. The publisher also offers some discounts with discount coupon code: STUDYSMART. Supplementary Readings Below is another useful textbook, particularly useful for the topic of decision analysis. Clemen R. T., & Reilly T. (2014), Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools, 3rd Edition, South-Western Cengage Learning. There are several professional communities in business analytics and decision science, such as Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), The Operational Research Society of UK, and Decision Science Institute (DSI). Students can find in their websites a number of cases and examples in which decision analysis helps organizations achieve better operational and financial performance. There is a specific journal called INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics (previously titled Interfaces) which publishes research works on the applications of business analytics and decision science. Students are encouraged to explore these materials throughout the semester. Society in Australia: The Australian Society for Operations Research (ASOR) offers National conferences and several talks. ASOR offers free membership for students.

Academic Integrity Academic Honesty The University maintains high academic standards in its courses and subjects and expects students to conduct themselves in a manner which is fair, honest and consistent with the principles of academic integrity, particularly when undertaking assessment and research. http://academicintegrity.unimelb.edu.au/ Referencing All sources used for a written piece of assessment must be referenced. This is to acknowledge that your material is not based entirely on your own ideas, but is based, in part, on the ideas, information, and evidence of others. This is desirable as you are attending University in order to learn from others. You will be required to use the APA system or Harvard System of referencing. The library has prepared a website to help students correctly reference: http://www.library.unimelb.edu.au/recite It is important that all material you present for assessment is referenced correctly. Material that has not been referenced correctly may be considered to be plagiarised, and as such may be penalised. We will also look for evidence that material included in the bibliography has been used in the assignment.

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The Academic Skills Unit has produced resources to assist students with referencing https://services.unimelb.edu.au/academicskills/undergrads/top_resources The Library also provides advice on referencing: http://library.unimelb.edu.au/cite

University Services Timetable MyTimetable is a class timetabling system that creates individual timetables for students based on submitted class preferences, ensuring everyone has an equitable opportunity of getting their preferred class timetable. You will use this system to create your class timetable prior to each study period. By following a preference-based model, students who have other commitments, such as employment or carer responsibilities, or who are returning or living overseas during the timetabling period, aren’t disadvantaged by their limited availability. When allocating class timetables, MyTimetable also takes into consideration factors such as class size limits and potential clashes to ensure all students are equally accommodated. Further information is available on the web at https://students.unimelb.edu.au/admin/class-timetable Stop 1: Connecting Students and Services Stop 1 is here to provide you with a range of support services throughout your university degree, from help with enrolment, administration and wellbeing to advice on building your skills and experiences. https://students.unimelb.edu.au/stop1 Academic Skills Academic Skills offers a range of workshops and resources to help you with study skills including researching, writing and referencing, presentation skills and preparing for exams. Visit their website via http://services.unimelb.edu.au/academicskills. Service Finder The University of Melbourne offers one of the most comprehensive student support networks in Australia. Use this site to locate a wide range of services http://services.unimelb.edu.au/finder Student Counselling Students attend counselling to talk about personal, emotional, or mental health issues which might be affecting their study and life. The University’s Counselling and Psychological Services (CAPS) provides free, confidential, short-term professional counselling to currently enrolled students and staff. https://services.unimelb.edu.au/counsel/individual

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Student Equity and Disability Support Student Equity and Disability Support provides services for students who need ongoing support with their studies. They understand that adjustments to learning and assessment are sometimes required to allow all students to reach their full potential. Learn more about the services provided, how to find support and ...