Syllabus 390 PDF

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PROBABILITY AND ENGINEERING STATISTICS I Spring 2019 Dr. Sherri L. Messimer Office: OKT N 137 E-mail: [email protected] Office Hours: In Tech hall (if you don’t see me in my office poke you head into the main ISEEM office next door): M/W 1-2 Except Holidays (MLK and spring break) and March 23rd and 25th T 1-2 (except March 24th) Other times by appointment I will announce office hours for GTA once I know his/her/their hours Text: Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, Fourth or Fifth Edition, William Navidi: McGraw-Hill, Boston, MA, 2015/2020.

Course Description Engineering uses of probability theory, discrete and continuous probability distributions including the binomial, Poisson, hypergeometric, normal, uniform, lognormal, and exponential distributions. Application of statistical sampling and estimation of means, variances, and proportions. Statistics is primarily about exploring data and seeking meaning amid uncertainty. Probability is the description (e.g., models) of random quantities. We will attempt to learn by doing (experimentation) as well as by telling (lecture). Plan to work hard and to have some fun. We will cover chapters 1 – 6 and we will start in Chapter 2 and pick up Chapter 1 toward the end of Chapter 4. Depending on time constraints we may not covered Chapter 3. Please attend class and keep up with material. You should keep up with the material on a weekly basis. Homework will be assigned but not collected. I will post solutions or go over in class. If you don’t keep up with the material when it assigned I can almost guarantee you will not do well in the course! I will do my best to record classes on panopto but if there are technical difficulties I will NOT rerecord the class so it is in your best interest to attend. It has been my experience that students that attend class are far more likely to make high grades. There were several people who did not attend regularly last summer who failed the class but I don’t believe anyone who came regularly earned less than a C. Disability Services: The University of Alabama in Huntsville will make reasonable accommodations for students with documented disabilities. If you need support or assistance because of a disability, you may be eligible for academic accommodations. Students should identify themselves to the Disability Support Services Office (256.824.6203) and their instructor as soon as possible to coordinate accommodations.

Grading and Class Policies Task Minitab assignments (2 at 10 points each) Midterm Exam (February 20th ) 1

Points (%) 20 35

Comprehensive Final Exam (Tuesday April 28 8-10:30 am in our classroom)

45

Total

100

Grading typically follows the pattern: 90s A 80s B 70s C 60s D Below 60 F There is no automatic curving – for instance if you have a 59.99 average that will be considered an F. Homework: There will be 12 homework assignments, about one per week. I will post the homework assignments in Canvas (under Files, folder called Homework Assignments) about a week before it is “due”. I will NOT be collecting your homework. I cannot emphasize enough how you need to work the problems on your own before you look at solutions. Also on line solutions are notoriously bad so don’t trust them. When you come to me and say “I worked all the homework and I still failed the test” the first thing I’m going to ask is whether you tried the homework (and I mean really gave it an effort!) before you looked at the solutions! On the syllabus when it says “Homework X due” it simply means you should have it completed by that time. Minitab assignments: We will make use of a statistical software package called Minitab. It will be available on Chargerware or in the ISEEM lab. We will have two assignments that involve the use of Minitab and I will be providing detailed requirements for those when they are assigned. The due dates and assignment dates are listed below in the daily schedule. If you have access to another package, such as JMP, it will be acceptable to use that package but you cannot use EXCEL for these assignments even though it is possible to do so for these particular assignments. The reasoning is that you may be expected to use a package such as Minitab in your job (or another class) where you won’t (easily) be able to use EXCEL. I will be asking you to submit your assignment through TURNITIN (anti-plagiarism software) so watch for instructions on that. Exams: Any tests that are missed without either a certified medical excuse or my prior approval will receive a grade of zero. A medical excuse is NOT the same as verification of an appointment; the medical excuse must state that you are unable to attend class on the day of the exam. If you have questions about homework or other material, please ask. All material presented in class and assigned for homework or reading is fair game. (I have been told that for every hour you spend in class you should expect to spend 3 hours outside of class. For this class that means 3 hours in class plus 9 hours outside for a total of 12. If you have 4 classes you are looking at a workload of 48 hours for your classes. Keep this in mind when determining how much you can work (or play) outside of class). You may have one sheet of notes, handwritten, front and back, plus a calculator for the first exam. You may have two sheets for the final exam.

Grade Disputes: Once graded material has been returned, a student has 48 hours to challenge the grade. To challenge the grade, you must submit a typed description of the grading error, along with your name and email address. Final course grades will not be changed unless a numerical error has been made in computing the grade. There will be no “extra credit” or “makeup work” after the grades have been submitted. Do Not ASK!

2

Academic Honesty Academic Honesty: I will be providing a copy of UAH’s new policy on Academic Misconduct. When you enroll at UAH you agree to abide by the policies of the University. I may seem like a nice person (or not!) but I can assure you that if I catch you cheating you will receive a failing grade in the class and I will file charges. If the charges are severe you could be dismissed from UAH and unable to get a letter of good standing to go anywhere else. Think about whether it’s worth it! Cheating includes plagiarism and I will be checking for this on your minitab assignments. Plagiarism, in this instance, includes using another student’s work even if you alter it. Class Disturbances: I am instating a new policy on lack of attention during class. First of all I will remind you that you do NOT have to attend class. You will do better if you do and if you also pay attention.

But if you do attend, these are the rules: First, I do not want to see you cell phones out at all. Keep them in a bag or a pocket. If you must take a call (or receive a text) during class please let me know beforehand. I don’t want you to use your cell phones to look at the notes on canvas during class as it is too tempting to go do other things. Second, I don’t want to see you doing homework or other activities (for this or other classes) during class. Third, if you are on your computer you should only be looking at slides for this class. IF I CATCH YOU DOING ANY OF THESE YOU WILL LOSE 3 POINTS PER INFRACTION OFF THE FINAL GRADE IN THE COURSE. Which means that after 3 times you have basically dropped a letter grade. In class participation is expected. I will be calling on you to answer questions. Please refrain from talking among yourselves as this is disruptive to others. Please do not leave the class unless it is necessary – again it is disruptive. Please feel free to ask questions or provide input to the class.

No tobacco products No “loud” food including chips and ice There is a document called “Rules of Class” that you need to sign and return to me.

Note: I reserve the right to make any and all necessary changes to this syllabus at any time during the course of the semester. If any changes are made, an updated copy will be either distributed in class or posted electronically. I will not change the dates of exams or of Minitab projects without 100% buy-in from the class though and the final exam cannot be changed.

Class No

Date

Topic (tentative – please keep up with what is actually covered each day)

1

January 7

2 3

January 9 January 14

Go over syllabus and rules. Start Chapter 2 Probability 2.1-2.3. See Canvas, Files, Chapter 2 part 1. Continue Chapter 2 2.1 – 2.3 Homework 1 “due” Continue Chapter 2 2.4-2.5, Discrete part of 2.6

4

January 16

Rules of the Class Must be returned (and signed!) by end of class today. Failure to do so will result in a 10 point loss (one 3

letter grade) off your final grade in the course. You may sign, scan, and email but taking a picture and sending is NOT acceptable.

5

January 21

6

January 23

7

January 28

8

January 30

9 10

February 4 February 6

11 12 13

February 11 February 13 February 18

14

February 20

15

February 25

16 17 18

February 27 March 3 March 5

19

March 10

20

March 12

21

March 17

22

March 19 March 24

23

March 26

Finish Chapter 2 Homework 2 due. Start Chapter 4 Commonly Used Discrete Distributions – Binomial, Poisson, Hypergeometric, Geometric Chapter 4 Continue Commonly Used Discrete Distributions – Binomial, Poisson, Hypergeometric, Geometric Homework 3 due. Chapter 4 Probability Distributions – Continue Chapter 4 with Normal Distribution exponential, uniform, Point Estimation Chapter 4 Probability Distributions – Continue Chapter 4 with Normal Distribution exponential, uniform, Point Estimation Homework 4 due. Complete Chapter 4 – Central Limit Theorem. Go back to Chapter 1 and cover descriptive statistics Homework 5 Due. Continue Chapter 1. Assign Minitab Exercise 1. Go over Minitab Homework 6 due I will answer questions about homework. No “review” class. You should be prepared to ask questions. Exam I covers material through February 13th . Closed book, 1 page hand-written notes, 8.5 x 11 inches paper Go over exam solution. Start Chapter 5 if time. We will cover sections 5.1- 5.9 over the next few classes. Keep up with what we are actually covering to make sure we are covering all these sections in case I have to delete some of them due to time constraints Continue Chapter 5, go over Z and student t distributions Homework 7 due. Continue Chapter 5 Minitab Exercise 1 due – will be turned in through canvas. More instructions with assignment as to format. Reminder – if you copy someone’s you will automatically fail this course! Is it worth it for an assignment that counts 10% of your grade?? Continue Chapter 5 Homework 8 due. If we are on schedule we will cover Chapter 3 – if not we will catch up If we are on schedule we will cover Chapter 3 – if not we will catch up Homework 9 due. If we are on schedule we will cover Chapter 3 – if not we will catch up Work problems or catch up No class – honor’s day. Also no office hours (I will be out of town from March 20-27 but GTA will be in class on March 26th) GTA will talk about Minitab 2 exercise and answer questions about assignments 4

24

March 30April 3 April 7

25 26 27

April 9 April 14 April 16 April 21

28 April 28

Spring Break – UAH closed Homework 10 Due. Start Chapter 6 – depending on time we will cover many of the sections (but definitely not sections 14 and 15) I will give you an update at this time. Continue Chapter 6 Homework 11 Due. Continue Chapter 6 Minitab Exercise 2 due at beginning of class. Chapter 6, Do correlation from chapter 7 if time Homework 12 due. Last day of class – come prepared to ask questions Final exam 8-10:30 am. Closed book, closed notes, 2 pages front and back of handwritten information (can be whatever you like)

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