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What is the Demographic Transition Model? By Drew Grover | October 13, 2014 This is a series of 6 posts about the Demographic Transition Model – a fundamental concept in population education, which is covered in Social Studies courses, most notably AP Human Geography. Beginning in the late 1700s, something remarkable happened: death rates declined. With new technologies in agriculture and production, and advancements in health and sanitation, a greater number of people lived through their adolescent years, increasing the average life expectancy and creating a new trajectory for population growth. This sudden change created a shift in understanding the correlation between birth and death rates, which up to that point had both been relatively equal, regardless of location. Over the past 300 years, population demographics have continued to evolve as a result of the relationship between the birth and death rates within a country. The observation and documentation of this global phenomenon has produced a model, the Demographic Transition Model, which helps explain and make sense of changes in population demographics. Using the Demographic Transition Model, demographers can better understand a country’s current population growth based on its placement within one of five stages and then pass on that data to be used for addressing economic and social policies within a country and across nations.

What is the Demographic Transition Model? The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is based on historical population trends of two demographic characteristics – birth rate and death rate – to suggest that a country’s total population growth rate cycles through stages as that country develops economically. Each stage is characterized by a specific relationship between birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people). As these rates change in relation to each other, their produced impact greatly affects a country’s total population. Within the model, a country will progress over time from one stage to the next as certain social and economic forces act upon the birth and death rates. Every country can be placed within the DTM, but not every stage of the model has a country that meets its specific definition. For example, there are currently no countries in Stage 1, nor are there any countries in Stage 5, but the potential is there for movement in the future.

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What are the stages of the Demographic Transition Model? In Stage 1, which applied to most of the world before the Industrial Revolution, both birth rates and death rates are high. As a result, population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. In Stage 2, the introduction of modern medicine lowers death rates, especially among children, while birth rates remain high; the result is rapid population growth. Many of the least developed countries today are in Stage 2. In Stage 3, birth rates gradually decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s status, and access to contraception. Population growth continues, but at a lower rate. Most developing countries are in Stage 3. In Stage 4, birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. These countries tend to have stronger economies, higher levels of education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working women, and a fertility rate hovering around two children per woman. Most developed countries are in Stage 4. A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model Like any model, there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule and the Demographic Transition Model is no different. Additionally, there are things the DTM cannot reveal: the impact of other demographic variables such as migration, are not considered, nor does the model predict how long a country will be in each stage. But even so, the relationship between birth rate and death rate is an important concept when discussing population and any patterns, such as those provided by the DTM, that aid in understanding are helpful.

Demographic Transition Model Case Studies Over a series of five posts we will explain each stage of the Demographic Transition Model in depth and provide a case study for stages when there is a country that currently fits its parameters. Note: When reading about each stage, refer the Diagram on Page 1 to help you visualize the model.

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Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a low population growth rate due to a high birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and a high death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people). In this first stage, total population is in flux as a result of these variables’ dynamic patterns, neither being consistent from year to year. Because the birth rate and death rate are relatively equal to one another there is little change in total population. But why are both rates high? There are a number of factors that can influence a country towards a high birth rate and high death rate. Historically, high birth rates are attributed to societies that relied heavily on agricultural productivity or unskilled manual labor, because larger families meant a larger workforce. A high birth rate is often the response to a high death rate as a country seeks to achieve or maintain replacement level (total fertility rate at 2.1 births per woman). Through a deeper analysis of circumstances that lead to high death rates, demographers often point to the rate of infant mortality and life expectancy as rubrics for determining a high or low death rate. Infant mortality is high when medicine and maternal care are limited or insufficient, and life expectancy is low when sanitation and public health are not adequate. Social, environmental, and political action all have severe consequences during this stage in regard to population because the birth rate and death rate are so fragile. Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model is considered the pre-industrial stage, or pre-transition, and today no countries are classified within Stage 1 of the DTM. This is quite a feat given that for all of human history up until the 18th Century, all countries were considered within Stage 1.

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Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a rapid decrease in a country’s death rate while the birth rate remains high. As such, the total population of a country in Stage 2 will rise because births outnumber deaths, not because the birth rate is rising. The decrease in death rate is commonly attributed to significant improvements in overall health, specifically access to pediatric care, which affects the life expectancy of the most at-risk demographic group — children. But along with basic healthcare, an expanded education system, gender equality, and technological advances in the areas of food production and sanitation also work to decrease the death rate. The transition to Stage 2 is still a relatively recent phenomenon in human history. Not until the Industrial Revolution did the first countries make the transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2. Since the mid-20th Century most of the world’s countries have not only made it into Stage 2, but have also continued to progress to Stages 3 and 4. Still, there are a number of countries that remain in Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition for a variety of social and economic reasons, including much of Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala, Nauru, Palestine, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 Case Study: Afghanistan In 2013, Afghanistan had one of the higher rates of natural increase (birth rate minus death rate; or net increase) in the world at 2.7% – much higher than any other central Asian nation. Data provided from the Population Reference Bureau had the Afghan birth rate at (35/1000) and the death rate at (8/1000). What is most significant here is that the death rate in Afghanistan is low and it continues to decline. Only a decade ago the death rate was over 20/1000, peaking around 2004. This fast reduction in the death rate is interesting to demographers because although life expectancy has risen quickly, one of the primary indicators of a lowered death rate (child mortality) remains high. Afghanistan currently has the highest rate of child mortality in the world, where one in ten children do not live passed the age of 5. Why then the decrease in death rate? Overall public health has greatly improved, and even though the child mortality rate is still high it is an improvement, as is the increased access to food and sanitation that has allowed adults to live longer. Quite remarkable for a country that has experienced so much war during the same time period. Looking beyond the numbers of birth and death rate brings the discussion back to the Demographic Transition Model’s focus on progress. Like Afghanistan, many countries in Stage 2 are categorized as “developing.” The rates of birth and death are both the cause and effect of social and political factors within a country. Afghanistan has experienced decades of war both internally, and externally, and this has had significant impacts on the overall health and health care system of the country. With continued improvement to both, the expected outcome determined by the DTM is a transition into Stage 3 where total population growth continues, but at a lower rate. The DTM does not provide a time table for transition, but the large gap between the birth and death may signal that the country is nearing the end of Stage 2. For that transition to occur, Afghanistan will need to address outstanding social and economic factors that lead to lower birth rates, most notably in the areas of education and the status of women. Afghanistan has a very high illiteracy rate and limited educational opportunities for women, both indicators towards a high birth rate. Without either of those issues being addressed, the country will remain in Stage 2, with a high rate of population growth. If the current growth rate continues the total population of Afghanistan is expected to double in just 25 years.

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Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model In Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model, death rates are low and birth rates decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s status and education, and access to contraception. The decline in birth rate varies from country to country, as does the time frame in which it is experienced. Some countries go through rapid transitions where the birth rate plummets by more than 40%, while others maintain a much more gradual decline. The rate of decline is dependent upon the economic and social factors at play – the quicker gains are made in areas such as education and gender equality, the faster birth rates decline. Lower birth rates combined with low death rates slow the pace of total population growth of countries within Stage 3. Though slow, total population growth will continue until birth rates are lowered to or below replacement level (total fertility rate at 2.1 births per woman). Education has been linked time and again to delaying women’s child bearing years, providing opportunities to women outside the home, and increasing a woman’s knowledge about her body and her health – all of which lead to smaller family sizes and ultimately a decrease in birth rate. Additionally, women who pursue advanced education are more likely to plan for smaller families or decide to never give birth. The combination of a shortened period for childbearing along with the ability to limit family size, whether by delay or contraception, together lower the birth rate within a country. For some countries sex and reproductive education is new to the public discourse and as its reach expands more women become knowledgeable to available care. Countries making the transition to Stage 3 all have some relative stability – economic, social or political. It has been debated whether or not these factors influence birth and death rates or if birth and death rates influence a country’s development. Regardless, stable population growth provides significant advantages for a country, offering opportunities to strengthen its economy as a prominent number of its citizens will be in their working years. As such, Stage 3 is often viewed as a marker of significant development. Examples of Stage 3 countries are Botswana, Colombia, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, just to name a few.

Demographic Transition Model Stage 3 Case Study: Morocco Like many countries tagged with the moniker “developing” Morocco progressed through Stages 1 and 2 of the DTM relatively quickly. After regaining its independence in 1956, Morocco transitioned into Stage 2 (high birth rate and low death rate) and remained there until the mid-1970s at which point the fertility rate began to decline from its peak of 7.4. By 1990 that rate was down to 3.7 and today it is around 2.7 children per woman – a substantial improvement in a very short time. This decrease in fertility rate is observed as the result of societal ideals evolving around contraception and the status of women. Increased access to contraception and the expansion of women in the work force both have led to the steady decrease in birth rate over the last four decades. The transition has occurred simultaneously with other demographic changes including an increased life expectancy and the movement of people from rural to urban communities. Since the 1980s both Moroccan men and women have seen life expectancy rise almost 20 years. Death rates have too been affected by continued advances in medicine and public health. For instance, child mortality rates have dropped tenfold since the 1970s and consistently decline annually. Still, as declining death rates were the focus in Stage 2, declining birth rates are the primary foci in Stage 3 of the DTM and the decline is greatly attributed to the increase in economic and social mobility of women. There is no timetable for progress from Stage 3 to Stage 4. Many countries remain in Stage 3 even with fast growing economies and ever-changing social dynamics. This is because although birth rates can drop rapidly it takes even longer, if ever, for them to become on par with the country’s death rate. It takes the combination of economic, social, and political forces all working in tandem to make the move out of Stage 3. Any barriers to continued progress will prevent movement and create stagnant countries, at least in their placement within the Demographic Transition Model. 5

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Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model In Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), birth rates and death rates are both low, stabilizing total population growth. The decline in both birth and death rates of most Stage 4 countries have been attributed to strong economies, highly educated citizens, ample healthcare systems, the migration of people from rural communities to cities, and expanded employment opportunities for women. As these factors play out the total fertility rate decreases until it reaches replacement level (2.1 births per woman), at which point the country enters Stage 5. It is understood that countries in Stage 4 of the DTM have experienced significant economic and social advances allowing for reduced family size in relation to decades prior. Though both the birth and the death rate are ever declining, countries in Stage 4 do house large populations – a result of progressing through Stages 1-3. With a large population annual growth can still be significant even with a small rate of natural increase. Additionally, the decline in birth rate and death rate isn’t always consistent, nor are both always in decline. Both rates are susceptible to outstanding circumstances such as pandemic or environmental disasters. That being said, Stage 4 of the DTM is viewed as an ideal placement for a country because total population growth is gradual. Examples of countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition are Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the U.S.

Demographic Transition Model Stage 4 Case Study: Argentina Since the middle of the 19th Century, Argentina has maintained a strong economy, keeping on par with Western Europe and North America. Much of the country’s development in economic and social mobility has been steady, combining with the technological and medical advances that allow for a quite rapid progression through Stages 1-3 of the DTM. Through industrialization cities became the epicenter of life, causing internal migration as people move from rural to urban areas. Due to the limited space within cities, and the changing demands of work, smaller family size becomes an indirect result of urbanization. Argentina’s transition to Stage 4 is unique when compared to the rest of South America because of how early it was accomplished – the birth rate has been in decline since the early 1900s with the only exception being the “baby boom” post World War II. Today Argentina’s rate of natural increase is 1.1%. Though this figure is below replacement level the country still has a higher birth rate (19/1000) than death rate (7/1000), so total population will still rise. But why the early decline in birth rate? The simple answer: gender equality. Argentine women have been protected, at least in theory, by a civil code that outlaws gender discrimination since 1869. Women maintain a relatively high level of employment and educational opportunities in relation to men. Gender equality and a high status of women are large components of lowered birth rates. And while the Argentine government has historically been against contraception, today condoms and birth control are widely available without cost. Low birth rates and low death rates characterize the countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model. Not since Stage 1 of the DTM have birth rates and death rates been so equal in value, the main difference being that in Stage 4 total population is already high. Countries will remain categorized as Stage 4 until they reach the point where death rate exceeds birth rate, the definition of Stage 5; but there is no formula or estimate for how long that transition will take.

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Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model What happens when the birth rate of a country declines to the point where it is lower than the death rate? Answer: entry into Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) – theoretically. In Stage 5 of the DTM a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death rate becomes higher than the birth rate. The negative population growth rate is not an immediate effect, however. Based on demographic momentum, in which total population growth increases even while birth rates decline, it will take a generation or two before a negative population growth rate is observed. In this scenario it is the economy that is the driving force behind further limits on family size and the use of contraception. Whether persuaded by the high costs of raising a family in cities or the enticing opportunities of employment that delay childbearing, birth rates decline well below replacement level (2.1 children per woman). What occurs is an aging citizenry that ...