Has the Philippines undergone the demographic transition from the last 10 years? Why or why not? PDF

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This document answers if the Philippines undergone the demographic transition and how the pandemic affect its demographic profile...

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Fulo, Ivanne Alecxyz G.

The Contemporary World

IR356

Mrs. Bernadette Poquiz Essay on Demography

1. Has the Philippines undergone the demographic transition from the last 10 years? Why or why not? ✓ According to the report, the Philippines has thus far been unable to achieve a comparable demographic transition to that of the majority of its Southeast and East Asian neighbors in the past decades. The United Nations classified the demographic transition as a shift from high fertility and mortality rates to low. Furthermore, the Philippines is in Stage 2 of the demographic transition model, which is marked by a fast decline in deaths — caused by rapid advances in education, public health measures, and food production; while the number of births remains high due to poor sex education and lack of contraception. Also, the living conditions appear to be stagnant. Thus, the country is rapidly approaching the end of its demographic window of opportunity. Instead of a demographic transition, the Philippines could fall into a demographic trap. Without vigorous government measures to reduce the country's total fertility rate, as well as policies targeted toward producing more opportunities, the window of opportunity presented by the demographic transition would disappear quickly without us even realizing it.

2. How did this pandemic affect the demographic profile of the Philippines? Site some examples. ✓ It is possible that differences in demographics, socioeconomic conditions, surveillance systems, and policy responses contributed to the initial severity of COVID-19 outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared to many high-income ones. The progression and impact of the pandemic are significantly correlated with the population's demographic composition, notably with the age structure of the population. Apart from age structure, demographics can provide insights on the significant gender disparities in COVID-19 mortality that must be understood—with men being at a higher risk. But then, more recent data indicate that the pattern is altering, emphasizing the younger age groups (25 to 34 and 35 to 49). Additionally, researchers believe that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic will have a minor impact on demographic trends. The Commission on Population and Development, often known as POPCOM, predicts that the country's population will reach 110,881,756

by the end of 2021. That represents a projected 1.31% increase compared to the current population of 109,480,590 at the start of 2020 — a slower growth rate than the 1.68 % increase in 2016 and a 1.45% rise between 2019 and 2020. With this, the Philippines continues to have one of the fastest population growth rates in ASEAN and still has "lingering issues" connected to climate change, migration, and teenage pregnancies. The pandemic's long-term lockdowns and disruption of family planning services may increase unwanted pregnancies and population growth.

References: Caldwell, J. M., de Lara-Tuprio, E., Teng, T. R. et al. (2021). Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 14, 100211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100211

Davis, B. (2021). What countries are in stage 4 of the demographic transition model? Mvorganizing.Org. https://www.mvorganizing.org/what-countries-are-in-stage-4-of-thedemographic-transition-model/

Dowd, J. B., Andriano, L., Brazel, D. M., Rotondi, V., Block, P., Ding, X., … Mills, M. C. (2020). Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 202004911. doi:10.1073/pnas.2004911117

Mapa, D. S. (2015). Demographic Sweet Spot and Dividend in the Philippines: The Window of Opportunity is Closing Fast. UNFPA Philippines. Retrieved from https://philippines.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pubpdf/Demographic%20Sweet%20Spot%20and %20Dividend%20in%20the%20%20Philippines_FINAL_DRAFT_Ver4_OCT2015withcover_0.pdf

Santos, D. (2020, December 30). Philippine population growth slows to 1.3%, but COVID-19 may turn things around. CNN Philippines. https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/12/30/Philippinepopulation-growth-slows-down-.html

University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI) and Demographic Research and Development Foundation, Inc. (DRDF). (2020). The changing demographics of COVID-19 infections and deaths: how age and sex structure, living arrangement and family ties intersect. Retrieved from https://www.uppi.upd.edu.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/COVID-19-Research-Brief07.pdf....