ATAR - Lecture notes 6 PDF

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1. Describe the 6 main forecasting approaches raised in the PDMA chapter. Which is the best and why?

2. The ATAR / ATR model often underpins many approaches to forecasting. What its strengths and weaknesses....

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1. Describe the 6 main forecasting approaches raised in the PDMA chapter. Which is the best and why? a. Jury of execution opinion: Top-down forecasting b. Delphi method: Expert opinions, data collecting c. Sales force composite: Bottom-up forecasting d. Assumption-based modelling: Attempts to model the behaviour of the relevant market environment by breaking the market down into % of likely actors e. Scenario analysis: An analysis involving the development of scenarios to predict the future. (Exploratory – Present to future, Normative – Future to present) f.

Decision trees: Various contingencies and their associated probability of occurring are determined typically in a subjective fashion

2. The ATAR / ATR model often underpins many approaches to forecasting. What its strengths and weaknesses. a. Strengths i. Aligns financial metrics and marketing goals ii. Provides detailed information to the marketer iii. Allows marketing flexibility in achieving the financial goals iv. Sensitivity testing v. Adapted to different industries and business models b. Weaknesses i. Assumptions may be challenging to produce ii. Relies upon multiple assumptions iii. ‘Tweak’ the profitability or ROI iv. More accurate for product line extensions and product improvements v. ATAR terminology may be misunderstood...