Case Study on Forecasting Technique of mana PDF

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With due admiration I am pleased to inform you that I have effectively finished my 3 months'
internship at Daraz Bangladesh, under the supervision of Mr. Barish Khandaker, Head of Content
management and Head of Onsite. The subject of my internship report is Content management of
Da...

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Case Study on Forecasting Technique Q.1. According to your judgement, what kind of demand patterns do your business of the products follow? Out of the above 3 forecasting methods (discussed in the case study), which one should be more suitable to your company? Justify

Ans. It has always been more important to gain sustainable competitive advantage by succeeding to survive in the new economic order in which businesses experience rapid changes and transformations in their internal and external environment. I am currently working in mobile phone industry (Walton Mobile) and today, mobile phone sector is an extremely dynamic and innovative sector both in the world and also in Bangladesh where demand is changing every day according to new models and competition is experienced. As a result, this industry has become one of the toughest works to make proper forecasting compare to other industries. There is a lot of factors that affects the projected sales every month. Currently, my company is following weighted moving average method for forecasting the demand as error rate is better than other methods. However, research has shown that using more reliable, realistic, and quantitative methods such as time series or regression analysis to gain the ability to make demand forecasts based on short periods are insufficient for businesses in the mobile phone sector. In several researches, it has been found that the quantitative demand forecasting method, which allows to estimate the demands with higher precision and accuracy level, is the "machine learning" method. According to the result of the researches, it can be said that it is possible to use the "random forecast algorithm" to find demand forecasts related to sales of a new mobile phone product offered for sale to national and global markets.

Q.2.What social, economic and business parameters affect your business the most? Identify three most important parameters, which affect your business. Ans. There are a massive number of factors that are affecting in mobile phone business which makes the forecasting most difficult to do. The top three important parameters are as follows: a. Technology and Specification: The technology of mobile phone changing rapidly which is making the life cycle of a single product is shorter than any other products. Sudden arrive of new technology reduce the demands of the old running products sharply.

b. Price: Mobile phone customers are highly price sensitive. As a result, the profit margin is becoming narrowing and a slight deviation from the forecast demand costs a huge loss. c. Education level of customers: Mobile phone demand highly depending on the education level of the customers. For example, in Bangladesh most people are still buying 2G feature phone rather than 4G smartphone. Despite the purchasing power, the other reason behind this is because they don’t know how to operate the 4G smartphone and also don’t know the benefits of using 4G smartphone....