Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016 Title : Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro Approved by: Date PDF

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016 Department of Community and Environmental Resource Planning College of Human Ecology University of the Philippines Los Banos College, Laguna SUPERVISED FIELD EXPERIENCE HUME 198 Field Practicum Output of : Bacani, Anne Jellie V....

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016 Title : Climate and Disaster Risk Assess... Guillian Oliver Naredo

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

Department of Community and Environmental Resource Planning College of Human Ecology University of the Philippines Los Banos College, Laguna SUPERVISED FIELD EXPERIENCE HUME 198 Field Practicum Output of :

For the degree of Major in Title

: : :

Approved by:

Bacani, Anne Jellie V. Esquivel, Arge Louise Joy Naredo, Guillian Oliver B. Rico, Diannemar B. Bachelor of Science in Human Ecology Human Settlements Planning Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro Date

Prof. Efraim D. Roxas, EnP. Practicum Supervisor Prof. Cheamson Garret Boongaling Practicum Supervisor Prof. Sharon Feliza Macagba, EnP. Practicum Supervisor Prof. Ricardo M. Sandalo Practicum Coordinator Prof. Efraim D. Roxas, EnP. Department Chair, DCERP Dr. Raden G. Piadozo Dean, CHE

Recorded:

Date

Dr. Marison R. Dy College Secretary, CHE BACANI | ESQUIVEL | NAREDO | RICO

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

Supervised Field Experience in Human Settlements Planning University of the Philippines Los Baños College of Human Ecology Department of Community and Environmental Resource Planning

In partnership with Municipality of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board, Southern Tagalog Region

CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT OF MANSALAY, ORIENTAL MINDORO

TECHNICAL REPORT

Bacani, Anne Jellie V. Esquivel, Arge Louise Joy Naredo, Guillian Oliver B. Rico, Diannemar B.

December 2016

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Choosing the practicum option to end our undergraduate journey as Human Settlement Planning (HSP) Majors, we were completely clueless of how it would be- especially that we were immersed in a distant site and we were really out of our comfort zone. But it was definitely a wonderful experience, which we are very thankful for to the ones who, if not for them, this study would not be possible. A million thanks to Engr. Alrey Maning, the Municipal Planning and Development Coordinator of the Local Government Unit of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro for the guidance, accommodation, taking good care of us while on the site, and making sure that the whole conduct of the study would be convenient. Sincere gratitude to Kuya Ege, Kuya Nino, Kuya Melvin, Kuya Chong, and Tito Bebot for accompanying us to the 17 barangays we went to and for all the practical support while in Mansalay. We offer special thanks, too, to the DILG Coordinator of Mansalay, Ms. Maria Eloisa for not tiring out in helping us coordinate with the Barangay Captains. To Nanay Marlet and Tatay Nolie, Ate Rachelle, Tita Smile, and Maria Elizabeth (Nene/Bebe), thank you for keeping us emotionally healthy by providing "family" during our one-month stay in the municipality. For the technical guidance and assistance, we would like to thank Ma'am Elizabeth Bandojo, Ma'am Sharon Macagba, Sir Garret Boonggaling, Sir Efraim Roxas, Sir Ricardo Sandalo. Your intellectual insights and influence to us really inspired us to continue to love our career path as HSP Majors, and see its value for aiming the ideal UP graduate goal - to serve the people. To Friends, the TV show that helped us bounce back up the spring of stress while conducting the study, and to our friends, who encouraged us not to quit, who threw us despedida and welcome events before and after the on-site study, and who continued believing in us, thank you very much. To our family

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

and relatives who are really our biggest inspiration to graduate, we love you so much and all these efforts, plus our graduation, are for you. Above all, we thank the Almighty God for supreme protection, capability to endure hard times, good health, and wisdom. All the success would not be possible if not because of Him. - Team Mansalay

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) in coordination with the Municipal Planning and Development Office of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro partnered with the Department of Environmental Resource Planning to formulate a Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) for the said municipality. The integration of CDRA into the Comprehensive Land Use Plan is crucial in formulating

climate and disaster risk-sensitive plans and zoning ordinances

(HLURB Supplemental Guide Book, 2015). Using CDRA,exposure, vulnerabilities, and risks of the five exposure units(population, urban use areas, natural resources, lifeline utilities, and critical point facilities) were analyzed and provided with policy recommendations that address the municipality’s needs in terms of climate and disaster adaptation and mitigation. The Municipality of Mansalay is a second class municipality in Oriental Mindoro with a population of 54,533 as of 2015 (Philippine Statistics Authority). The HLURB Supplemental Guidebook (2015) provided the procedure for conduct of the CDRA. The researchers conducted a five-step process involving: 1) collecting hazard and climate change information; 2) scoping of potential impacts: 3) exposure database development; 4) climate and disaster risk assessment, and; 5) identifying decision areas and corresponding policy interventions. Steps 1 and 2 were accomplished prior to site deployment and were validated through FGDs upon arrival on site. Step 2, along with attribute data gathering, was accomplished with the aid of the Municipal Planning and Development Office on site. After the analysis of the susceptibility of the five exposure units, likelihood of occurrence score was assigned and the severity of consequence were identified together with officials from the 17 barangays of the municipality; resulting to the level of risk per exposure unit. The resulting risk from the scoring led to the identification of decision areas which will serve as priority areas in policy recommendations.

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

The Municipality of Mansalay Oriental Mindoro is susceptible to climate change and the hazards it brings about such as Flooding, Landslide, Tsunami, storm surge, and drought.

Data gathered from the climate projections of

PAGASA (2011) indicate increase in temperature for all seasons; increase in rainfall during the wet months in 2020 and a significant increase during the Amihan season in 2050.On the other hand, climate projections also indicate a significant decrease during the summer months of 2020 and 2050. There will be a significant increase in terms of number of days exceeding 35 degrees Celsius; decrease in the number of days with rainfall less than 2.5mm; and an increase in number of days with rainfall greater than 150mm. The climate projections indicated that there will be more extreme weather events as years 2020 and 2050 approach. The municipality is highly exposed to Landslide having 94% of its total land area exposed to the hazard, although its occurrence is observed to be very seldom. Flooding on the other hand is observed in coastal barangays and areas near river systems, although majority of barangays reports Flooding in times of typhoons and heavy rains. In terms of Tsunami, seven barangays are exposed to its inundation area. Barangay Waygan has the highest risk in terms of Landslide. Barangay Panaytayan, on the other hand, has the highest exposure to Landslide due to its high elevation and steep slopes. Furthermore, Barangay Wasig was identified to have the highest risk in terms of Flood. Barangay Sta. Brigida and Wasig were observed to be high at risk when it comes to Tsunami.

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENT ..................................................................................................... iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... v Acronym ....................................................................................................................... viii INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 1 A. Background of the Study ..................................................................................... 1 B. Rationale ................................................................................................................ 2 C. Locale of the Study............................................................................................... 3 D. Objectives of the Study...................................................................................... 10 E. Scope and Limitations......................................................................................... 11 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE ................................................................................. 12 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 21 Operational Framework.......................................................................................... 22 Tools and Techniques ............................................................................................. 34 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ........................................................................................... 32 A. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment .............................................. 32 B. Disaster Risk Assessment .............................................................................. 51 History of Previous Disasters ............................................................................. 51 Hazard Susceptibility......................................................................................... 55 Exposure and Risk to Hazards ......................................................................... 61 i. Population................................................................................................... 62 ii. Urban Use Areas......................................................................................... 78 iii. Natural Resource-based Production Areas............................................ 95 iv. Lifeline Utilities........................................................................................... 116 v. Critical Point Facilities.............................................................................. 144 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... 161 CONCLUSION …...……………………………………………………………….…….…... 169 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................. 170 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 173 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................ 178 A. Risk Tables........................................................................................................... 179 B. Organizational Structure................................................................................... 232 C. Gantt Chart ……………………………………………………………………….... 233 D. Budget Allocation ............................................................................................ 234 E. Photo Documentation ..................................................................................... 236

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

LIST OF TABLES Table 1. List of Land use category and area covered ………………………………....6 Table 2. Indicative likelihood of occurrence score matrix …………………………. 26 Table 3. Severity of consequence score matrix ………………………………………. 26 Table 4. Risk score matrix …………………………………………………………………...29 Table 5. Climate change projections for the municipality of Mansalay ………… 32 Table 6. Summary of projected changes in climate variables and the Potentially affected exposure units in Mansalay ..................................................... 34 Table 7. Summary of climate change impacts in the five exposure units ………. 36 Table 8. Summary of previous disasters in the municipality of Mansalay ….……. 52 Table 9. Hazard susceptibility inventory matrix.......................................................... 53 Table 10. Summary of Flood risk database of population ...................................... 70 Table 11. Summary of Landslide risk database of population ................................ 72 Table 12. Summary of Tsunami risk database for population ................................. 74 Table 13. Summary issues matrix for population ....................................................... 77 Table 14. Summary of Flood risk database for urban use areas............................. 88 Table 15. Summary of Landslide risk database for urban use areas ...................... 90 Table 16. Summary of Tsunami risk database for urban use areas ........................ 92 Table 17. Summary matrix for urban use areas ........................................................ 94 Table 18. Comparative agricultural crop areas and production ………...………. 99 Table 19. Natural resource-based production area Flood risk database ........... 107 Table 20. Natural resource-based production areas Landslide risk database ...109 Table 21. Natural resource-based production areas Tsunami risk database...... 111 Table 22. Natural resource-based production areas drought risk database …. 113 Table 23. Decision areas and policy intervention for natural resource-based production areas ....................................................................................... 115 Table 24. Summary of Flood risk database for lifeline utilities................................ 132 Table 25. Summary of Landslide risk database for lifeline utilities ……….............. 135 Table 26. Summary of Tsunami risk database for lifeline........................................ 138

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

Table 27. Summary issues matrix for lifeline utilities ................................................. 140 Table 28. Summary of Flood risk database for critical point facilities .................. 152 Table 29. Summary of Landslide risk database for critical point facilities ............154 Table 30. Summary of Tsunami risk database for critical point facilities ...............156 Table 31. Summary matrix for critical point facilities ............................................. 158 Table 38. List of existing evacuation centers and its capacity ............................ 159

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Location map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro ........................................... 5 Figure 2. Land use map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro ........................................... 7 Figure 3. Elevation map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro ........................................... 8 Figure 4. Slope map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro ................................................. 9 Figure 5. Operational framework for the climate and disaster risk assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro ....................................................................... 22 Figure 6. Impact chain diagram for the forest areas .............................................. 42 Figure 7. Impact chain diagram for the agricultural areas .................................... 45 Figure 8. Impact chain diagram for the coastal areas ........................................... 47 Figure 9. Impact chain diagram for the urban areas .............................................. 50 Figure 10. Flood susceptibility map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro ...................... 58 Figure 11. Landslide susceptibility map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro ............... 59 Figure 12. Tsunami susceptibility map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro .................. 60 Figure 13. Tsunami susceptibility map of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro .................. 61 Figure 14. Flood exposure map for population ........................................................ 65 Figure 15. Landslideexposure map for population ................................................. 66 Figure 16. Tsunami exposure map for population .................................................... 67 Figure 17. Flood risk map for population ................................................................... 69 Figure 18. Landsliderisk map for population ............................................................ 71 Figure 19. Tsunamirisk map for population ............................................................... 73 Figure 20. Flood exposure map for urban use areas ............................................... 82 Figure 21. Landslideexposure map for urban use areas ........................................ 83 Figure 22. Tsunami exposure map for urban use areas ........................................... 82 Figure 23. Flood risk map for urban use areas .......................................................... 87 Figure 24. Landsliderisk map for urban use areas ................................................... 89 Figure 25. Tsunamirisk map for urban use areas ...................................................... 91 Figure 26. Flood exposure map for natural resource-based areas ...................... 100 Figure 27. Landslideexposure map for natural resource-based areas ............... 101 Figure 28. Tsunami exposure map for natural resource-based areas ................. 102 Figure 29. Drought exposure map for natural resource-based areas ………...… 103 BACANI | ESQUIVEL | NAREDO | RICO

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Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment of Mansalay, Oriental Mindoro 2016

Figure 30. Flood risk map for natural resource-based areas ................................. 106 Figure 31. Landsliderisk map for natural resource-based areas .......................... 108 Figure 32. Tsunamirisk map for natural resource-based areas ............................ 110 Figure 33. Droughtrisk map for natural resource-based areas ........................... 112 Figure 34. Flood exposure map for lifeline utilities (roads and bridges) ............... 120 Figure 35. Flood exposure map for lifeline utilities (power and water networks).121 Figure 36. Landslideexposure map for lifeline utilities (roads and bridges) ....... 122 Figure 37. Landslideexposure map for lifeline utilities (power and water networks) …………………………………………...…..123 Figure 38. Tsunamiexposure map for lifeline utilities (roads and bridges) ......... 124 Figure 39. Tsunamiex...