Cone of Uncertainty PDF

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MGMT 6118- BUSINESS ANALYSIS IN THE AGILE ORGANIZATION CONE OF UNCERTAINTY

Submitted by,

Sanju Philip (0984689) 02/14/21 Submitted to,

Prof. Jeanne Riviere

Table of contents Sl.no

Description

Pg.no

1

Introduction

3

2

Cone of Uncertainty

3

Advantages of using the cone of uncertainty

4

4

Different stages in the cone of uncertainty  Initial Stage  Refinement Stage  Completion stage

4

5

Role of Agile

5

6

Core Concept

5-6

7

Value of Cone of Uncertainty

6

8

Conclusion

6

9

References

7

3-4

Introduction According to the article by [ CITATION Fer20 \l 1033 ], the cone of uncertainty was first used by Steve McConnell to define the concept in his Software Project Survival Guide when he addressed it as a normal estimate type organization system having certain uncertainty ranges and are accessible in the form of cone illustration. The early stage of a project starts by having a lack of awareness and confidence through what other possible alternatives to be used. There are different types of variables such as showing what kind of software to be implemented or which exact requirements need to be addressed is usually assessed in a project. These variables are unclear at the early stage of the project. When the project moves into the next stages, all variables and estimation become more accurate and its level is precise. This event of uncertainty can be referred to as the cone of uncertainty and will show exact details while moving on to a further stage.

Cone of Uncertainty The cone of uncertainty is being performed by both the project managers and analysts to estimate projects. It is a graphical illustration of the uncertainty movement based on the duration of the project or to address differently if the progression of the reliance that can be for estimates.

[CITATION Con20 \l 1033 ]

The graph shown above illustrates the most common representation of the cone of uncertainty with time on the x-axis and the calculation of variance on the y-axis. Here, the horizontal axis portrays certain project milestones such as the initial stage, description of the approved product, the accomplishment of the user interface project, the achievement of the detailed plan and software. Similarly, the vertical axis represents the estimation of variability showing the degree of errors made by the experienced estimators during various stages of the project. According to Steve McConnel, the role of software evaluation is not to predict the outcome of a plan whereas to regulate the main target of a project which is more realistic to allow the project to be controlled to meet them.

Advantages of using the Cone of uncertainty According to new research by [ CITATION Fer20 \l 1033 ], there are certain advantages for using the cone of uncertainty.     

It helps to minimize the ambiguity It shows the most possible estimates It assists in the calculation of a high and low range of probabilities By using the cone of uncertainty, it will also help us to understand the risk that is affordable and funding of increment. It helps to strengthen the value of additional research.

Different stages in the Cone of Uncertainty 1. Initial Concept Under this phase, the variability of estimation is high at the beginning and the level of professional expertise on different facts is not been attained. The initial phase is based on the assumptions like showing the requirements of people, their level of skill needed for the estimation. 2. Refinement Stage It is the stage where the idea of the variables and concept of the project is achieved. When the project moves to the next stage, the definition of the project turns to be more understandable compared to the first stage. Many errors can be eliminated in this stage by minimizing the factor by 0.25x inaccuracy in the estimation process. 3. Completion Stage It is the last stage where we can minimize the uncertainty to a higher level when the axis moving forward with time. The more we complete the project, the lower will be the uncertainty. The plotting of these variances over a certain period results in the shape of a funnel in the

graph. The funnel of uncertainty means the process of minimizing the risk by ascertaining assumptions.

Role of Agile [CITATION Con20 \l 1033 ] notes that, the agile and the cone of uncertainty are powerful

combinations as the agile helps to allow teams to deliver on a conclusion. The role of agile in the cone of uncertainty helps to increase the capability to understand the constant iterations and deployment so that the team can authorize it to access more rapidly and to know about the market to minimize the uncertainties

[CITATION Env15 \l 1033 ]

Core Concept From the article [CITATION Con20 \l 1033 ], Narrowing the cone of uncertainty is an important and difficult concept that illustrates the best-case accuracy which is possible to have in a project using software estimation at different points. The cone describes the errors in the projections created by trained estimators. There is no proper estimation done or no control is accomplished when the cone of uncertainty cannot be narrow down to minimize errors. The removal of variables is the only way to narrow down the cone. Poorer elimination of variables will take more time and result in a wider cone. According to new research by [CITATION Agi20 \l 1033 ], the Fibonacci sequence is also another concept that represents uncertainty. The adjusted numbers used during planning poker have only a slight difference with the cone. But they are both well-matched to illustrate the risk and the uncertainty.

[CITATION Agi20 \l 1033 ]

[CITATION Agi20 \l 1033 ]

Value of Cone of Uncertainty The cone of uncertainty provides certain values that minimize the estimation of the uncertainty using certain measures like continuous assessment, optimizing tracking and estimation within the cone. Cost, schedule, risk, specific requirements are the main factors that describe the estimation of the project and it is different from one case to another.

Conclusion The cone of uncertainty depicts a simple fact. The closer we get to an event; the more we will learn about it. This will help to make better predictions and assumptions about this event in the future. For the development of a project, a fund is also essential for the success of every project. Therefore, the future estimation of the project will be more accurate.

References

Construx. (2020). The Cone of Uncertainty. Retrieved from https://www.construx.com/books/the-cone-of-uncertainty/ Döbrich, S. (2020). The Fibonacci sequence and the Cone of uncertainty. The Fibonacci Sequence. Retrieved from https://blog.agileskills.de/en/the-fibonacci-sequence-and-thecone-of-uncertainty/ Envoc. (2015). The Envoc Agile Glossary. Cone of Uncertainty. Retrieved from https://envoc.com/think/the-envoc-agile-glossary Fernandes, T. (2020, March 16). Learn About the Cone of Uncertainty Framework. Retrieved from https://medium.com/pm101/cone-of-uncertainty-framework-78927c1840f...