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MODERNA INC (MRNA-O) COMPANY IN CONTEXT REPORT

Pharma. & Medical Research / Biotech. & Medical Research / Biotech & Medical Research

Report Date: 2021-Oct-01 Last Close

Avg Daily Vol

52-Week High

Trailing PE

Annual Div

ROE

LTG Forecast

1-Mo Return

384.86 (USD)

13.9M

497.49

48.0

--

72.4%

--

2.2%

2021 September 30 NASDAQ Exchange

Market Cap

52-Week Low

Forward PE

Dividend Yield

Annual Rev

Inst Own

3-Mo Return

173.6B

65.49

8.7

--

7.0B

58.0%

63.8%

VERUS OPINION

Hold

The Verus Opinion, provided by Verus Analytics Inc, is an empirically-derived and historically back-tested stock rating system with buy, hold, and sell opinions. To develop a rating, the quantitative system analyzes a company's earnings quality, balance sheet, and income statement, conducts technical and valuation analysis and evaluates the transactions made by the firm's management and directors (i.e. insiders).

The Verus Opinion covers 4401 companies, with 15.3% rated Buy, 64.8% rated Hold, and 20.0% rated Sell as of 2021-09-24. Verus Analytics Inc is a private independent research firm, unaffiliated with Refinitiv, that specializes in engineering institutional ratings systems.

I/B/E/S MEAN Mean recommendation from all analysts covering the company on a standardized 5-point scale.

Hold 16 Analysts

Strong Sell

Strong Buy

1

Buy

Sell

Hold

Buy

Strong Buy

6

Hold

6

Sell Strong Sell

3 0

PRICE AND VOLUME CHARTS 1-Year Return: 444.0%

5-Year Return: --

BUSINESS SUMMARY Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company that is focused on creating a transformative medicines based on messenger RNA (mRNA). The Company's mRNA medicines are designed to direct the body's cells to produce intracellular, membrane, or secreted proteins that have a therapeutic or preventive benefit with the potential to address a range of spectrum of diseases. The Company develops technologies that enable the development of mRNA medicines for diverse applications. The Company has created modalities, including Prophylactic vaccines, Systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, Cancer vaccines, Intratumoral immuno-oncology, Localized regenerative therapeutics, and Systemic intracellular therapeutics. Its diverse development pipeline which consists of 27 development candidates across its 24 programs.

Page 1 of 6 © 2021 Refinitiv. All rights reserved.

MODERNA INC (MRNA-O) COMPANY IN CONTEXT REPORT

Pharma. & Medical Research / Biotech. & Medical Research / Biotech & Medical Research

Report Date: 2021-Oct-01

PEER ANALYSIS

Currency in USD PRICE MOMENTUM

Verus Opinion Ticker

Price 2021-09-30

VALUATION

1-Mo Return

3-Mo Return

1-Yr Return

Market Cap

Trailing PE

FUNDAMENTAL

Forward PE

Dividend Yield

ANALYSTS

Net Margin

LTG I/B/E/S Forecast Mean

# of Analysts

Hold

MRNA

384.86

2.2%

63.8%

444.0%

173.6B

48.0

8.7

--

49.8%

-- Hold

Hold

IQV

239.54

-7.8%

-1.1%

52.0%

50.1B

76.8

25.7

--

4.7%

19.8% Buy

16 19

Sell

SGEN

169.80

1.3%

7.6%

-13.2%

29.4B

52.1

--

--

25.1%

-- Buy

19

Hold

CRL

412.67

-7.0%

11.6%

82.2%

23.1B

53.2

38.1

--

12.1%

14.0% Buy

12

Hold

ICLR

262.02

2.4%

26.8%

37.1%

22.5B

38.4

25.5

--

11.5%

11.4% Buy

14

Sell

ALNY

188.81

-6.3%

11.4%

29.7%

22.3B

--

--

--

-129.0%

7.9% Buy

20 11

Hold

TECH

484.57

-2.9%

7.6%

95.6%

21.1B

139.7

62.8

0.3%

15.1%

-- Buy

Sell

NVAX

207.31

-13.1%

-2.4%

91.3%

18.5B

--

9.6

--

-80.4%

-- Buy

Hold

PPD

46.79

1.0%

1.5%

26.5%

16.5B

65.0

29.2

--

4.7%

Hold

INCY

68.78

-10.1%

-18.2%

-23.4%

15.2B

45.3

20.1

--

12.4%

-- Buy

18

Hold

QGEN

51.68

-7.4%

6.8%

-1.1%

12.5B

25.1

24.8

--

22.0%

-- Buy

13

228.80

-4.3%

10.5%

74.6%

36.8B

60.4

27.2

0.3%

-4.7%

13.7% Buy

14.4

--

Average

6

15.3% Hold

10

PEER COMPANIES IQV SGEN

IQVIA Holdings Inc Seagen Inc

TECH NVAX

Bio-Techne Corp Novavax Inc

CRL ICLR ALNY

Charles River Laboratories ICON Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc

PPD INCY QGEN

PPD Inc Incyte Corp Qiagen

EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS -

-

PRICE TARGET

MRNA's current quarter consensus estimate has increased over the past 90 days from 7.95 to 9.44, a gain of 18.8%. This improvement is significantly greater than its industry average of 0.0% during the same time period.

The chart indicates where analysts predict the stock price will be within the next 12 months, as compared to the current price. 500 400

During the past four weeks, analysts covering MRNA have made 1 upward and 2 downward EPS estimate revisions for the current quarter.

12-Month Price Target

HIGH 384.86 MEAN

300 200 100

LOW

0.00

Current Price (USD)

Mean (USD)

349.00

High

490.00

Low

85.00

Target vs. Current

-9.3%

# of Analysts

12

Price Target

EARNINGS PER SHARE

Currency in USD Actuals

Estimates

16.00 HIGH

Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing a company's earnings by the number of shares outstanding. Analysts tend to interpret a pattern of increasing earnings as a sign of strength and flat or falling earnings as a sign of weakness. The charts provide a comparison between a company's actual and estimated EPS, including the high and low forecasts.

12.00

MEAN 6.46

8.00

LOW

2.84

4.00 -0.59

-0.69

0.00 -4.00

20-09

20-12

21-03

Actuals

21-06

21-09

21-12

9.439

10.830

High

11.470

13.720

Low

8.280

6.210

12

12

21-12

Estimates

80.00

Annual

60.00 40.00 MEAN

20.00 -1.55

LOW

-1.96

-20.00

2021

2022

Mean

29.310

27.100

High

33.000

48.060

Low

22.840

14.790

16

17

# of Analysts

0.00

© 2021 Refinitiv. All rights reserved.

21-09

Mean

# of Analysts

HIGH

Page 2 of 6

Quarterly

2019

2020

2021

2022

MODERNA INC (MRNA-O) COMPANY IN CONTEXT REPORT

Pharma. & Medical Research / Biotech. & Medical Research / Biotech & Medical Research

Report Date: 2021-Oct-01

ANALYST REVISIONS

MEAN ESTIMATE TREND

Last 120 Days

Q 21-09

Last 30 Days

# Broker Upgrades

0

# Up Revisions

# Broker Downgrades

2

# Down Revisions Avg Up Revisions

1 2 6.3%

Avg Down Revisions

-12.5%

Q 21-12

Y 2021

Y 2022

Price Target

Current

9.439

10.830

29.310

27.100

349.00

30 Days Ago

9.422

10.740

29.690

25.480

286.00

90 Days Ago

7.945 18.8%

8.845 22.4%

24.810 18.1%

18.090 49.8%

181.00 92.8%

% Change (90 Days)

Next Expected Report Date: 2021-10-27

EARNINGS SURPRISES Comparing a company's actual earnings to the mean expectation of analysts results in a difference referred to as a 'positive' or 'negative' surprise. Research has shown that when a company reports a surprise, it is often followed by more of the same surprise type. Surprise Summary (Last 12 Quarters) Surprise Type

Amount

Percent

Positive Quarters (> 2%)

6

54.5%

Negative Quarters (< -2%)

4

36.4%

In-Line Quarters (within 2%)

1

9.1%

Surprise Detail (Last 6 Periods) Surprise Type

Announce Date

Period End Date

Actual EPS

Mean EPS

Surprise (%)

Positive Positive Negative Negative

2021-08-05 2021-05-06

2021-06-30 2021-03-31

6.460 2.840

5.955 2.387

8.5% 19.0%

2021-02-25

2020-12-31

-0.690

-0.346

-99.4%

2020-10-29

2020-09-30

-0.590

-0.426

-38.5%

Positive

2020-08-05

2020-06-30

-0.310

-0.351

11.7%

In-Line

2020-05-07

2020-03-31

-0.350

-0.353

0.8%

ANNUAL REVENUE A pattern of increasing sales in conjunction with a rising EPS may influence a buy recommendation, while flat or falling sales and faltering earnings may explain a sell recommendation. A rising EPS with flat or falling sales may result from increased cost efficiency and margins, rather than market expansion. This chart shows the sales forecast trend of all analysts and the highest and lowest projections for the current and next fiscal year.

Actuals

Estimates

40.0B

2021

2022

Mean

20.1B

19.8B

High

22.0B

36.6B

Low

16.9B

12.6B

2406%

2367%

16

16

HIGH

32.0B 24.0B MEAN

16.0B LOW

8.0B 0.00

60.2M

803.4M

2019

2020

Forecasted Growth # of Analysts

2021

2022

FUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS -

MRNA's net margin of 49.8% is substantially above the Biotech & Medical Research industry average of -309.9%. MRNA's operating cash yield of 163.0% is substantially above the Biotech & Medical Research industry average of 22.4%.

-

MRNA's current ratio of 1.2 is substantially below the Biotech & Medical Research industry average of 7.5. Moderna Inc does not currently pay a dividend. Of 672 firms within the Biotech & Medical Research industry, it is among the 670 companies without a dividend.

FUNDAMENTAL METRICS Profitability MRNA

Debt Industry Avg

Dividend MRNA

Industry Avg

Revenue Growth For year over year ending 2021-06

6532%

0.0%

Current Ratio For interim period ending 2021-06

1.2

7.5

Gross Margin For latest 12 months ending 2021-06

86.2%

78.9%

Debt-to-Capital For annual period ending 2020-12

4.1%

0.0%

Return on Equity For interim period ending 2021-06

72.4%

-54.8%

Interest Funding For interim period ending 2021-03

0.2%

-1.4%

Net Margin For latest 12 months ending 2021-06

49.8%

-309.9%

Interest Coverage For interim period ending 2021-06

613.6

-41.3

Page 3 of 6 © 2021 Refinitiv. All rights reserved.

MRNA

Industry Avg

Div. Growth Rate For year over year ending --

--

6.1%

Dividend Payout For latest 12 months ending --

--

59.7%

Dividend Coverage For annual period ending --

--

2.8

Current Div. Yield For latest 12 months ending --

--

0.0%

MODERNA INC (MRNA-O) COMPANY IN CONTEXT REPORT

Pharma. & Medical Research / Biotech. & Medical Research / Biotech & Medical Research

Report Date: 2021-Oct-01

RELATIVE VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS -

At 48.0, MRNA's current Trailing P/E is at a 65% Premium to the S&P 500 index average of 29.0.

TRAILING PE

-

At 8.7, MRNA's current Forward P/E is at a 59% Discount to the S&P 500 index average of 21.3.

FORWARD PE

The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four most recently reported quarterly earnings. Trailing PE 5-Year Average: S&P 500 Index Average: Industry Average:

FORWARD PEG

The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four upcoming quarterly consensus estimates.

48.0 -29.0 --

Forward PE 5-Year Average: S&P 500 Index Average: Industry Average:

The Forward P/E divided by the five-year forecasted growth rate. Forward PEG 5-Year Average: S&P 500 Index Average: Industry Average:

8.7 -21.3 --

>50

>50

>50

45

45

45

40 35

40 35

40 35

30

30

30

25 20

25 20

25 20

15

15

15

10 5

10 5

10 5 = -0.1 and < 0.2) with the S&P 500 index. The stock has, however, shown average correlation (>= 0.2 and < 0.4) with the market in the long term. - Over the last 90 days, MRNA shares have been more volatile than the overall market, as the stock's daily price fluctuations have exceeded that of 99% of S&P 500 index firms.

Peers

Last 90 Days Best Worst # # Largest Daily Daily Days Days Intra-Day Return Return Up Down Swing

Last 60 Months Best Worst Monthly Monthly Return Return

MRNA

17.1% -15.6%

21.2%

126.4%

-32.0% -18.9%

34

30

CRL

2.1%

-5.6%

37

27

6.7%

23.1%

ICLR

4.5%

-4.3%

36

28

12.1%

18.0%

-15.2%

IQV

2.9%

-5.1%

33

31

5.6%

32.2%

-22.7%

SGEN

4.4%

-4.9%

31

33

6.9%

34.9%

-27.2%

S&P 500

1.5%

-2.0%

33

30

2.2%

12.7%

-12.5%

RISK METRICS Magnitude of Returns

Volatility

Daily Returns (Last 90 Days) Best 17.1%

Standard Deviation Last 90 Days

Worst

Last 60 Months

-15.6%

Monthly Returns (Last 60 Months) Best 126.4% Worst -32.0%

Beta (1-Year) 5.21

0.78 0.85

Correlation vs. S&P 500 Last 90 Days

-5%

30.65

Negative Days Only

1.26

Last 60 Months

28%

Beta vs. Group

0.92

Positive Days Only Negative Days Only

0.75 1.12

Correlation vs. Group Last 90 Days Last 60 Months

24% 39%

Intra-Day Swing (Last 90 Days) Average 6.7% Largest 21.2%

PRICE ANALYSIS

SEASONALITY

Relative Strength Indicator (scale 1-100, 100 is best) Last 1 Month Last 3 Months Last 6 Months

Page 4 of 6 © 2021 Refinitiv. All rights reserved.

Correlation

Beta vs. S&P 500 Positive Days Only

MRNA 48 56 57

Industry Avg 49 48 49

Average Monthly Return (Last 10 Years) Oct 0.3%

Nov 73.1%

Dec -17.8%

Company Avg Industry Avg

-3.8%

4.6%

0.3%

Industry Rank

121 of 123

41 of 124

85 of 123

MODERNA INC (MRNA-O) COMPANY IN CONTEXT REPORT

Pharma. & Medical Research / Biotech. & Medical Research / Biotech & Medical Research

Report Date: 2021-Oct-01

PRICE PERFORMANCE

Currency in USD

Daily close prices are used to calculate the performance of the stock as compared to a relevant index over five time periods. 1-Week

1-Month

MRNA

MRNA

NASDAQ 100

-15.3% -4.1%

14,690

52-Week High

497.49

15,676

52-Week Low

65.49

11,053

- Moderna Inc has a Price Momentum Rating of 8, which is significantly higher than the Biotech & Medical Research industry average rating of 3.6. - On 2021-09-30, MRNA closed at 384.86, 22.6% below its 52week high and 487.7% above its 52-week low.
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