GEOG-2034 - Notes - 6 - Ideological Differences II PDF

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Prof: KL Stiles...

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Daniel T. Eisert

GEOG-2034

6 – Ideological Differences II GEOG-2034: Geography of Global Conflict October 8, 2019 (Week 7)

Class Business Philippine Insurgency: ‘OEF-P’

Current event due next week. Test starts tomorrow and is due on Friday. - Conflict going on for four decades. - 120,000 people have been killed. - Key geographic location in the Pacific (Chinese sea expansion). - There’s always been a Muslim population in the Philippines. In the southern part, 20% Muslim, 72% Christian on the main island, Mindanao. Moro National Liberation Front founded in 1969 and was focused on Mindanao. It is a separatist movement. MILF, Maute Group, Abu Sayyaf (splinter group) – Islamic state, no negotiations with the government. Abu Sayyaf wants continuous jihad with a pure Islamic state. Maute Group is ISIS dominant (bombed U.S. Embassy). In 2014, the Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro (CAB) - ___?___, Identity, and Resources - Mindanao would govern itself - Highest poverty rare in all of the Philippines - Resources would be split between the island and the national government. - Supposed to take effect in 2017. New elections occurred and it never happened. - The E.U. came in to help build an economy but without many restrictions. - The women were going to finally be involved. The more the females in a country are involved with peace agreements, the better the success (according to a U.N. study). New splitter group had locals involved, ISIS involved, Yemen involved, etc. The government is fighting 3-4 different groups with similar goals. Maute Threat in Marawi - Town looked like Syria/Iraq; Marawi was devastated. - One of the first major city attacks (in the countryside before). 2018: Bangsamoro Law signed - 75% resources stay local; 25% goes to the government - Islamic financing (interest free money; they see interest as a Western concept). - Now, the MILF (less extreme) is helping the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. - U.S. is there trying to fight off the very extreme groups. U.S. interests are at stake.

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Daniel T. Eisert

GEOG-2034 ISIS is helping jihad expanding. They are teaching tactics over the Internet. LOTS of countries with ISIS or ISIS affiliate activity. Not a ground war, but rather an ideological war. UK’s MI-5’s Terror Report measures terror threat level. - Commonalities of low treat levels: homogenous populations -

Putting ISIS people in prison doesn’t change them. Lots of Islamic extremists in Europe. A vast majority of these people are first generation immigrants (their parents immigrated there). - Enclaves of Muslims in Europe Muslim Brotherhood won the Presidency in Egypt after Mubarrak. About ½ of the ISIS attacks (~211) were planned against the United Kingdom. Issue: how to stop attack without violating the attacker’s rights.

ISIS Cyber War

There are lots terrorists who are not convicted from terrorist act. Law enforcement is starting to arrest possible terrorists on smaller things to stop an attack… but released at some point Anonymous Hacker Group: super decentralized group of hackers. - Attacked 149 ISIS/Islamic extremist websites - Flagged/attacked 101,000 Twitter accounts. - Delete/destroy 5,900 videos on the Internet. - Made several reports to the U.S. government. - Infect ISIS websites. - 10,000 ISIS accounts in one day (WOW!). - ~500 tips/day about extreme things online. The Western governments have had a hard time stopping ISIS groups online (e.g., the page is taken down and then they make another), so the Anonymous Hacker Group is doing a lot. Another group in Florida would do similar things in the 1990s. September-December 2014, (height of Caliphate) ISIS was using between 46,000 and 70,000 Twitter accounts. In September 2017, U.K. P.M. May wanted to aim to remove ISIS accounts within two hours. They created the Counterextremism Project in July 2018. There were 3000 ISIS videos with 164,000 views. 60% of the accounts were active even after

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Daniel T. Eisert

Terrorist POWs

GEOG-2034 the videos removed. 79% lived less than 2 hours but still generated 94,000 (??) views. 91% of videos were uploaded more than once. Google, YouTube, Microsoft, others have given $5 Billion in grants to NGOs to fight terrorism. US DHS has created an anti-terrorism tutorial for companies. Turkey has ~1,000 POWs from 50 countries. What do you do with women and children of ISIS fighters who didn’t commit any terrorist acts? They probably supported ISIS somehow. Children have been brought up in ISIS schools.

Promotion of Democracy

Lots of non-radical people become radicalized in prison. 87 non-democratic countries have moved towards democratization 1990s-2000s. 1990s-2000s: US promotes New World Order – nations share responsibility for freedom and justice. Democracies rarely go to war (war is costly). Lots of stakeholders in a given nation’s foreign policy. President George W. Bush’s Forward Strategy of Freedom - Lend support to pro-democratic forces in the Middle East - Established National Endowment for Democracy (NGOs for Middle East) - Lack of SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement – U.S. military tries you if you commit a crime overseas, not the foreign government) = chaos today (reason we left Iraq). 2/3 of the world’s poor lives in the Asian realm of the Pacific. 30% of the nations are in poverty. Civil Defense Force Operations see slide 54 of the advantages and disadvantages. 2017 survey in Jordan (mostly of young people), 50% want the U.S. to help them fight terrorism, 4% support Hezballa, 40% want a liberal interpretation of Islam, 85% think Arabs states join play a roll in Israeli peace talks and be less radical in working towards an agreement, 33% of Jordanians want to work with Israel, 55% support Hammas (down from 72% in 2014), 2% have a positive view of Iran, 58% want good relations with the U.S.

Sun Setting on GITMO?

People just want political and societal security. NOT ON US SOIL = CONSTITUTION DOESN’T PROTECT THEM 775 prisoners (at the height) – some sent back to Bolivia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq 41 prisons = $85 million/year (~$2 million each) 1/3 released returned to war Comparison: Rudolph Hess in jail (1947-1987); sole prisoner 1966-87 ~$1.7 million/year (ex-Nazi)

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