ISCOR 200 - Class - These are my lecture notes of the past semester, which are not always full but PDF

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These are my lecture notes of the past semester, which are not always full but combined with class powerpoints are more than enough to be ready for the final exam....

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ISCOR 200 - International Security and Conflict Resolution Class 1

28/08/2017

- BOOKS - Ingredients of genius: • cooperation; competition; diversity; openness; 3rd place out of professional & private life; cites; stability (financial); risk; criticism

! Class 2: Divergent Thinking

30/08/2017

- Impact on global governance: MNCs, TNCs, but also NGOs (humanitarian and terrorist organisation)

- Divergent thinking: essential capacity for creativity, ability t see lots of possible answers & interpretations of a question. Not thinking in linear or convergent ways.

- Divergent thinking is much more than creativity. It is coming up w/ multiple unexpected solutions to problems, new lenses to look at issues. Convergent thinking is much more linear and entails narrowing of your perspective on taking issues in consideration. Need for collaboration.

- Collaboration: interdisciplinary. ! Class 3: Introduction

- “Life is a race between education and catastrophe.” George Orwell - Exam Francis Golton: who was he? Relevance in ISCOR studies. - Francis Golton: beauty map in Great Britain (London - Aberdeen) - Athens: reasons for being a genius-cluster - Interdisciplinary & multidisciplinary nature of ISCOR • interdisciplinary: involving 2 or more disciplines • multidisciplinary: using combination of several disciplines for a common purpose • innovation & creative thinking: combining ideas from diff fields to create smthg new !1

! Class 5: Global Governance

- global governance today - G20 now nicknamed the G19+1 because usually all the 19 countries agreed but the US was the only one disagreeing and opposing decisions

- Changing relationship among and between member states in world governance: BRICS and MIST (Mex, Indonesia, South Korea & Turkey)

• all these countries face their own internal issues: Turkey and complex situation w/ Erdogan, or Indonesia !

Power diffusion

- The changing nature of conflict • for the most part pre-WWII: interstate • post-WWII: intrastate Why? Changing Global Governance ???

Definitions of Global Governance:

- most agree on what it is not: it is not world govmt, not centralised rule-making authority w/ power over national states. No members gives up of their national sovereignty.

- Includes news actors: shift from hierarchies to networks - slaughter: “cooperative problem-solving by a changing and often uncertain cast’ New World Order

New World Order actors:

- IGOs: • formal group of sovereign states created by treaty or charter • not new: oldest 6-member central Commission for Navigation of the Rhine (1815) !2

New World Order Actors: trans-governmental networks

- Good vehicle to bridge gap between nationalism and globalism: can help promote - bipartisan foreign policy - democracy - rule of law - uniform econ regulations

Civil soviet: the third sector

- forms of association not imposed or directed by the states or market that exist at all levels of society

- they exist side by side w/ market and govmt • historical example: Eastern Europe and end of CW, Vaclav Havel “Velvet Revolution” & Solidarity in Poland Definition: Changing relationship among and between nation-states

Class 6: Power Transition Nation-States in the 21st century

- Persistence of Westphalian model of states • territory still matters • role in modern society - Power transition: “rise of the rest” - Criteria for rising powers: • economic • political stability • military • education • natural resources !3

14/09/2017

• health • demographics Criteria for rising powers:

- leadership - technologically advanced economy - high-tech military - diplomatic clout: bilateral and IGOs ! Class 7: Non Proliferation DRPK & Iran (Iran Deal)

- Vertical proliferation: qualitative and quantitative increase in weapons by the nuclear powers - Horizontal proliferation: acquisition of nuclear weapons technology and materials by nonnuclear states

- Undeclared nuclear weapon states: Israel - suspected programs: Algeria; Iran; Saudi Arabia; Syria - Weapons capable: Germany; Japan; Canada; Turkey; Switzerland; Sweden - Abandoned programs: Brazil and Argentina (under dictatorships); South Africa; Iraq (not in 2003, they had actually been wiped out after 1991 Gulf War); South Korea; Libya; Taiwan

- Former Soviet Republics: Belarus; Ukraine; Kazakhstan

• why would countries want NW? → security, deterrent, technological imperative, heavier impact on intl politics, recognition

• why wouldn’t countries want NW? → expensive, environmental concerns, negative reaction (sanctions), problem of non-state actors, nuclear taboo, but sometimes states feel more secure w/out nuclear weapons

3P + T + E ≠ WMD 3P: Power (security); Politics; Prestige !4

T: technology E: economics

- Security risks of proliferation: • risk of nuclear war in conflict prone regions • risk of escalation to superpower conflict • accidents • environmental hazards and safety hazards • terrorist threats; theft; sale of materials; brain drain

! Class 8:

21/09/2017

Non proliferation: reasons why countries seek capability

- Natl Secu - Assert Natl Indep or Status - Domestic pol - Technological imperative

NPT 1970: 3 pillars

- Nonproliferation → The NPT is a nuclear bargain between nuclear states and non-nuclear states. It started with the original 5: US, France, China, UK, Russia. The 4 that followed: NK, India, Pakistan, Israel.

- Disarmament → Commitment from 9 nuclear states to eventually disarm; get rid of their nuclear weapons

- Peaceful uses of nuclear energy

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Nuclear Weapons Free Zones:

- Latin America: Treaty of Tlatelolco 1967 - South Pacific: Treaty of Rarotonga 1985 - Africa: Treaty of Pelindaba 1996, into force 2009 - Southeast Asia: Treaty of Bangkok 1995 - Central Asia: Treaty of Semipalatinsk 2006 - Also intl treaties that prohibit nuclear weapons in Antarctica (1959), outer space (1967) and on ocean seabed (1972)

• had we not specified ocean seabed as a free zone, there would have probably been nuclear weapons attached to it

! Class 9: Obama’s Non Proliferation Legacy?

26/09/2017

Famous speech in Prague in 2009: Commitment to a world w/out NW. Rhetorical commitment, not likely to happen in Obama’s lifetime, disarmament cannot be unilateral but rather a joint act. Obama was the first US President when to Hiroshima, to reaffirm a commitment to nonproliferation. He did not apologies but had a symbolic meaning.

New START: Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, 2010 Treaty Tenets

- Part of a process leading to Global Zero; “signficant step”, bridge or way station to deeper reductions

Nuclear Security Summits: Achievments: Part of Obama “nuclear spring”; focus on HEU and Pu

- Commitme to former pledges, or so-called “house gifts”; Ukraine, Kazakshtan, and other ‘Mexico, Chile, Vietnam, Canada) to remove HEU

- US/Russia separate deal on Pu; US/Japan deal !6

Challenges to Obama’s Legacy: Nuclear modernisation?

- 30 year $1 trillion plan to modernise nuclear weapons arsenal - US maintains an arsenal of about 1750 strategic nuclear warheads

EXAM: ID:

- Iran/JCPUA - BRICS/ MINST - Sir Francis Galton - United Nations → global gov, IGOs, values & challenges - G20: transgovmental organisation - Civil Society - NPT - Chapter Athens - Nuclear Ban Treaty Essay:

- Nonproliferation - regime, obama legacy - Divergent thinking/ Genius - Global Governance: - diffusion/ transition - Haas - Nonpolar/multipolar/bipolar

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! Class 10: Iran Deal Update - JCPOA

28/09/2017

Calling it a “deal” is an embarrassment. Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It is an agreement, not a treaty. JCPOA: July 14, 2015 Today, 2 years after the JCPOA, White House considering to walk away from the agreement. Israel as biggest US ally today, although US absolutely opposed to creation of state of Israel in 1948. I.

Background on JCPOA

- Secret meetings set up by Sultan Qhaboos of Oman between US representatives (Jake Sullivan & William Burns)

- 3 years later, the JCPOA signed on July 14, 2015 - JCPOA: agreement between Iran and P5 +1, 159 pages, UNSC R2231: 104 pages, July 20, 2015

- JCPOA is a non-binding agreement, not a TREATY like NPT or NAFTA — did not need Senate approval.

• Obama sent it to the Congress, although he knew he did not have to do it. He did for domestic consumption. Agreements between US and other world leaders do not require Senate approval, Senate ratifies treaties.

- JCPOA has prevented a potential attack by Israel or US on Iran’s nuclear facilities, true to this date.

- Iran reduced number of centrifuges from 19 000 to 6104. All of them are IR-1s Iran’s fortgeneration

- Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3,67 percent for at least 15 years - Iran agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10 000 kg of low-enriched uranium to 300 kg of 3,67% LEU for 15 years

- Iran need 3-5% enriched uranium for its Busher plant and 20% fuel for the medical isotope research reactor - has neither

- The US and P5 lost NOTHING, just agreed NOT to impose more sanctions and release Iran’s own assets

- Yet imposed more sanctions on Iran in 2017

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- Iran lost everything, about $200bn investments in its nuclear program, mostly i enrichment facilities over 30+ years

- Israel which was so opposed to JCPOA before July 2015 has been silent since then - The US and Israel have been happy since Iran’s path to NW has been blocked true to this date - IAEA has been happy w/ Iran since signing of JCPOA w/ its continuous inspections of all Iran’s nuclear facilities, true to this date

II. IAEA evaluation of Iran’s performance

- IAEA has been happy with Iran, Iran did no violation. - Note: the IAEA in its latest report of August 31, 2017 made no mention of Iran’s ICBM program, terrorism & HR issues as they are not party of the JCPOA.

- Note: The IAEA is the Ultimate Authority if any NPT nations compliant w/ NPT - update on JCPOA and Iran’s ICBM threat III. P5 evaluation of Iran’s performance

- Since July 14, 2015 - Germany: if US walks away from the deal, the JCPOA will still stand. IV. US evaluation of Iran’s performance

- Candidate Trump was critical of JCPOA which he called “one of the worst deals ever made by any country in history” & threatened to dismantle it

- Trump advisors have warned him that pulling out of JPCOA was more complicated and less advisable than he had indicated during the campaign

- State Dept Certification April 18, 2017: Tillerson letter to Paul Ryan (speaker of the house) → this letter confirms that the conditions of Section 135 of the AEA of 1954, as amended by the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, enacted May 22, 2015, are met as of April 18, 2017.

- Since the new admin has stated Iran has complied w/ JCPOA in the past 2 years, the same advisors recommended to go after Iran on new issues such as terrorism, ballistic missiles and HR.

- Trump declared that even if Iran is meeting the terms of its deal w/ Obama admin & other world powers, “they are not living up to the spirit of it” !9

- So on June 15, 2017: the Senate’s Iranian sanctions legislation imposed new restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program, also aiming to punish Iran for supporting terrorism and JR violations, the vote was 98-2.

- The new US sanctions were awkward as it came after rIrnian overwhelmingly re-elected Rouhani (May 19), who has tried to expand the econ w/ West, 73% national vote

- Note: JCPOA & R2231 are silent on issues such as terrorism & HR - Iran firing ICBMs will be addressed later R22331 - William Burns: there are serious risks that deal could unravel, “death by a thousand cuts” is that William Burns fears could be the fate in store for the agreement

- Burns says he is concerned by the “chipping away of trust in the agreement from all sides”, “it’s a fragile enough envmt as it is”

- Rouhani and his foreign minister, Zarif are going to be very good at driving a wedge between US and Europe if it appears US is unreasonable party said Burns.

• White House not acknowledging it which is a pure lack of respect for an emerging power.

- Now in 2017 XXX - Major banks, concerned about US policy on Iran, have stayed clear of Iran - Prevailing view in Wash seems to be to let the agreement remain in place but to press on Iran so it does not get the commercial advantages expected

- The aerospace industry is a good example, Booeing proposed sale of 80 jets XXX - In a separate confrontation, the Trump admin included Iran in it'd travel ban on migrants & refugees from six Muslim-majority nations

- The mood in Europe is different, while Airbus must wait on the US because of the Americanmade parts in its planes. Washington does not have similar leverage over some of the other companies that are forging ahead into a market of 78 million ppl (Siemens AG has spend a $1.6bn agreement to build trains)

- On July 17, 2017 Trump Recertified that Iran is complying with JCPOA this is the second time US admin has certified IRan’s compliance w/ JCPOA V. Iran ICBM program, threat XXX

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VI. European View of JCPOA

- Sept 17, 2017 XXX - Unilateral action - JCPOA

! Class 12: Middle East In-Security Democracy and the Arab Awakening Major countries/ players w/in region; regional rivalries → Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. But also major actors outside of the region: US, Russia, France, EU as a whole.

Middle East as a region:

- Difficult to define: Arab & Islamic unity both myths - 6% of Arab world controls majority of wealth: function of oil and globalisation - Major regional powers: • Turkey: Europe/ Asia, secular, Sunni, Turkish • Egypt: Africa, divided, Sunni, Arabic • Iran: SW Arabia, Islamic theocracy, Shia, Farsi • Saudi Arabia: Sunni, Arabian Peninsula, birthplace of Islam

United in problems:

- lack of econ depmt/ growth: • even in oil-exporting countries, unemployment is very high; 10% world population; 2% output: oil not labor intensive, lack of FDI

- Population explosion • lots of unsatisfied young people; Youth Bulge - Water & water politics !11

• More important than oil: climate change also becoming an issue - Democratic growth • despite Arab awakening, the democratic deficit is growing in the region.

Democracy as least bad alternative?

- broad global consensus about the principle of liberal democracy?

Democracy and the Arab Awakening:

- Democracy « moves in forward and backward leaps and plateaus » (P. Khanna) - Arab Awakening (Arab Spring) represents serious challenge to authoritarian rule → thousands of ppl reunited in city squares to get rid of dictators

• problem w/ Muslim Brotherhood were a new autocratic rule has been implemented after Egyptian dictator was ousted

- But it also produced pattern of protest, repression and even civil war

! Class 13: Lecture on Asia Asian Security, DPRK, Burma

NK has 4th largest army in the world. US pulling out of agreements, of Asia. PRC would like to remain as a buffer between NK and US, represent the peninsula, therefore they want to preserve the status quo. China is having 5 year plan conclave w/ leaders and politicians discussing events and situation for a week or so.

! Class 14: Conflict Resolution - Luca Dal Pubel Conflict resolution: refers to all methods to resolve conflict in a non adversarial way

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Refers to process of resolving a dispute or a conflict permanently, by providing each sides’ needs, and adequately addressing their interests so that they are satisfied with the outcome. Definition of conflict: «!opposition between individuals and groups on the basis of competing interests, different identities, and/or differing attitudes.!» (Schellenberg, J. 2001) Conflict occurs when two XXX

«!Conflict is the state of being challenged by human differences!» (Littlejohn & Dominici 2007)

- Attitudes - Concerns - Goals

Types of conflict: 1. date conflict 2. interest conflict 3. XXX

Sources of conflict:

- Econ conflict (over resources: oil, water, minerals, metals, food) - Value conflict (ideologies, values, pol views) - Power conflict (power struggle, control) (Daniel Katz, 1965)

! Class 16: Negotiation XXX When parties negotiate, they usually expect give and take. !13

While they have interlocking goals that cannot be accomplished independently, they usually don’t want/ need exactly the same thing. This interdependence can be either win-lose or win-win nature.

Positional Bargaining vs. Principled negotiation: Positional bargaining: negotiation over positions XXX

Concessions & Persuasion: Allow yourself room to make concessions. Don’t go w/ a «!first and final offer!». Make bilateral, not unilateral concessions, make sure you get smthg in return.

! Class 17: Negotiation Key negotiation principles:

- Best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA) - Reservation price: minimum or maximum both sides are willing to go in a negotiation - Bargaining Zone - Zone of Possible Agreement

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SIMULATION Hostage: 1977 → 12 members of religious group seized 3 buildings in DC, and took 134 hostages. Mosque, DC City Hall, HQ Leader had been target of brutal attack, several of his children were murdered. Revenge for murders. Control buildings. Use of force is not recommended; many hostages, terrorists are armed. Taking out water and electricity will affect the hostages also. 1. Look at: who is in the conflict? 2. What are the parties demanding? 3. What does each party want and why? 4. What could each side do in order to get what they want?

5. Is there a reservation price? 6. What is the best alternative? Plan B?

! Class 19:

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