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Kyoto Protocol and its Implementation in Pakistan
Hurdles and Expectations...

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Kyoto Protocol and its Implementation in Pakistan; Hurdles and Expectations Conference Paper · March 2010

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Kyoto Protocol and its Implementation in Pakistan; Hurdles and Expectations 1

Hadeed Ahmed Sher1, Sajid Iqbal1 and Dr. Suhail Aftab Qureshi2 Faculty of Engineering, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan, 2Department of Electrical Engineering, UET, Lahore, [email protected]

Abstract- In 1997 Kyoto protocol was adopted at the third session of Conference of the parties of UNFCC in Kyoto, Japan. This protocol restricts the industrialized countries and those in transition to a market economy agreed to limit or reduce their emissions. In Pakistan the government is also taking steps to reduce the pollution. This paper discusses the possible low carbon emitting electricity generation options by keeping in view the current energy scenario of Pakistan and the new energy policy announced by the Government of Pakistan for renewable energy promotion. Index Terms: - Biomass, Clean energy, Kyoto Protocol, Photovoltaic cells.

I.

INTRODUCTION

From the last few decades the global warming has become an important factor in industrial and scientific research. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) began to address this issue in the late 1980’s and was adopted at the United Nations Head Quarters, New York on 9 May, 1992. After a meeting held at Kyoto, Japan on 11 December 1997 the text of the protocol was defined [1]. On 16 February 2006 protocol came into force by the ratification of Russia, which met the requirement of ratification by at least 55 countries accounting for at least 55% of this industrialized group emissions in 1990 [2]. However it is interesting to note that USA, which is responsible for about 25% of the global greenhouse gases and Australia have not ratified the protocol. Figure 1 shows the country wise response for Kyoto Protocol. The U.S. President George W. Bush rejected the protocol as “fatally flawed”. It is also interesting to know that with the withdrawal of U.S.A. the European Union (EU) has toned down the opposition to the hot air sales. The expected reduction of world carbon emissions due to the Kyoto activities in around 300-350 Mtc [2]. In Pakistan environmental concerns are not among the top priorities. People are rather worried about unemployment, poverty and a sharp decrease in the standards of living and day to day survival. II.

KYOTO TARGETS AND STRATEGY

It is based on two mechanisms: 1. Joint Implementation or (JI) 2. Clean Development Mechanism or (CDM) Joint Implementation (JI) involves reduction that arises from project investment in other countries with their own Kyoto emission targets [3].

Fig. 1 Kyoto Protocol is accepted by almost every country except America and Australia.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) involves emission reducing arising from project investment in developing countries which do not have their own Kyoto emission targets [3]-[4]. These mechanisms are based on the principle that no matter where the gases come from the impact on environment is same, and the reduction in emissions should come from the places where it will cost the least. III.

LOW CARBON EMITTING ELECTRICITY OPTIONS

Since the Kyoto Protocol emphasizes mainly on pollution reduction so it is important to take a look at the options available for low carbon emitting electricity options and those which are feasible in Pakistan. The emissions from the fuel energy chain including fuel use for mining, processing and transport of fuels as well as for power plant construction and decommissioning has been analyzed in a number of studies. Table I lists the total typical results expressed in grams of carbon equivalent (including CO2, CH4, N2O etc) per kWh [5]. TABLE I

Energy/Technology LIGNITE 1990s Technology (high) 1990s Technology (low) 2005-2020 Technology

Plant Emissions

Other Chain Steps

Total

359

7

366

247

14

261

217

11

228

2 COAL 1990s Technology (high) 1990s Technology (low) 2005-2020 Technology OIL 1990s Technology (high) 1990s Technology (low) 2005-2020 Technology NATURAL GAS 1990s Technology (high) 1990s Technology (low) 2005-2020 Technology SOLAR PHOTO VOLTIC 1990s Technology (high) 1990s Technology (low) 2005-2020 Technology HYDROELECTRIC Reservoir (Brazil) Reservoir (Germany) BIOMASS High Low WIND 25% Capacity (Japan) 10% Capacity (Belgium) NUCLEAR High Low IV.

278

79

357

216

48

264

181

25

206

215

31

246

195

24

219

121

28

149

157

31

188

99

21

120

90

16

105

0

76.4

76.4

0

27.3

27.3

0

8.2

8.2

0 0

64.6 6.3

64.6 6.3

0 0

16.6 8.4

16.6 8.4

0 0

13.1 7.6

13.1 7.6

0 0

5.7 2.5

5.7 2.5

FACTORS INFLUENCING GREEN HOUSE GASES (GHG) EMISSION RATES FROM DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES

A. Fossil Fuels  Fuel characteristics such as carbon content and caloric value  Type of mine and location  Fuel extraction process  Pipeline losses for natural gas.  Conversion efficiency.

 Fuel mix for electricity needs associated with fuel supply and plant construction and decommissioning. B

Hydro Power  Type (run of river or reservoir)  Plant location (tropics vs. northern climate)  Energy use for building the dam.  Emissions from production of construction materials, which are dominant for run of river and mountainous reservoirs.

C

Wind  Energy use for component manufacturing and construction of the installation.  Fuel mix for the electricity needs associated with manufacturing and construction operations, which are highly country and site specific.  The annual yield or capacity factor which identifies the effective productivity of the installation. The average wind speed is the key parameter when estimating the productivity of the installation ( a 50% increase in average wind speed roughly doubles the annual yield) [5].

D

Solar Photovoltaic (PV)  Quantity and grade of silicon used for cell manufacture.  Type of technology (amorphous vs. crystalline material)  Fuel mix for electricity needs associated with manufacturing.  Type of installation (roof type, façade, dedicated structure).  Annual yield and assumed life time of the installation which are important parameters when calculating emissions per kWh. Solar and wind power have relatively low emissions per kW, but high values per kWh due to lower capacity factors.

E

Biomass  Feedstock properties (moisture content and caloric value)  Energy use for feedstock production (growth, harvesting and transport)  Power plant technology.

F

Nuclear Power (light water Reactor)  Energy use for fuel extraction, conversion, enrichment, construction/decommissioning.  Fuel enrichment by gas diffusion, an energy intensive process can increase nuclear chain GHG emissions by a factor of 10 compared to the centrifuge process [6].  Fuel mix for electricity needs associated with the enrichment step; highly country specific since it depends on the fuel mix in the local electricity generation system (e.g. France derives 76% of its electricity from nuclear energy, with low emissions) [7].

3  Fuel reprocessing and recycle can reduce the total nuclear chain GHG emissions by 10-15 % relative to once through fuel cycle. V.

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN PAKISTAN

A Hydro Power The total hydroelectric potential in the country has not been fully investigated but estimated to be 40,000 MW [8]. This includes all kinds of dams on the irrigation system of Pakistan. Pakistan has an installed hydroelectric capacity of 5026 MW of large, 437 MW of medium and 253 MW of small plants mostly in the northern areas of Pakistan. This is almost 15% of the identified potential. It should be noted that the unit cost for a hydroelectric power plant is very cheap and it is environmentally safe so we need invest in this field in order to cope with the requirement of Kyoto protocol. B Wind Commercially exploitable wind resources exist in many areas of Pakistan especially in Southern Sindh and coastal belt of Baloachistan with average annual speed exceeding 7-8 m/s along the Keti Bandar-Gharo corridor [8]. It is interesting to note that no commercial wind farms are in operation however some micro wind turbines pilot have been tested for community use [9]. C Solar, Photovoltaic and Thermal Almost all Balochistan, Sindh and a vast area of Southern Punjab receives abundant solar irradiation on the order of over 2 MWh/m2 and 3000 hours of sunshine per annum which is at the highest end of global isolation averages [8]. Unfortunately there is no major contribution in this field also. D Biomass It includes bagasse, rice husk, straw, cow dung and municipal solid waste. Pakistan large agriculture and livestock sector produces enormous amount of biomass in term of crop residues and animal waste such as bagasse, rice husk, straw, dung much of which is currently collected and used outside the commercial economy as unprocessed fuel for cooking and household heating. In addition municipal and urban population produces a large solid waste which can be used to produce useable methane gas and electricity [8]. In contrary to the above information only sugar mills in Pakistan use bagasse for cogeneration purposes and have recently been allowed to sell surplus power to the grid up to a combined limit of 700 MW [8]. No other significant commercial biomass based technology is presently employed for energy production/use in the country beyond experimental deployment of biogas digesters improve cook stove and other small scale end use applications. VI.

REVIEW OF POWER POLICIES OF PAKISTAN

Government of Pakistan announced various power policies during the years 1994-2004 [10]. These policies offered a wide range of choice for fuel/energy source and technology. But up

till 2006 there was not even a single standalone policy focusing the environmental issue. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) was created in May 2003 to act as the central national body on the subject of renewable energy [8]. It announced a policy for the development of renewable energy products in Pakistan. The main objective of the Board is to facilitate, promote and encourage development of renewable energy in Pakistan with a mission to introduce alternative/renewable energy at an accelerated rate to achieve 10% share of RE in the energy mix of the country [8]. Other then the policy announced by this board there is no such main policy about clean energy production in Pakistan. Further it is interesting to know that none of the power policy of Pakistan contains any guidelines for the Kyoto Protocol and there is no such agency in the country that forces the power producers to limit their gas emissions [10]. The policies of Pakistan should be crystal clear about the possible limitations offered by the ratification of this protocol. VII.

HURDLES AND EXPECTATIONS OF KYOTO PROTOCOL IN PAKISTAN

Following are some of the major barriers offered by the current energy scenario of Pakistan for the ratification of this protocol. A

Awareness Barrier.  Low awareness and confidence level in alternative/renewable technologies  Low awareness of benefits of renewable energy i.e. low public acceptance

B

Economic Barrier.  Lack of demonstrated economics of renewable energy based energy supply.  Lack of significant field demonstration i.e. economic risk  Economic analysts ignore hidden or indirect subsidies on pricing on resources

C

Financing Barrier.  Availability of project finance is a challenge: performance or asset-backed  Lack of price guarantees  Pooled investments are not encouraged  Investors demand high rates of return due to perceived risk  Long permitting process is a financial risk

D     E

Institutional Barrier. Lack of dedicated institutions Ill-defined role of policy-making institutions Conflict between institutions Projects not based on most cost-effective scenario, but on political will

Policy and Regulatory Barrier.  Lack of long term and consistent policy  Conflicting laws and policies  Lack of utility commitment

4  Lack of tax incentives – credits, write-offs, holidays, favorable import tax  Lack of price subsidies and guarantees  Inconsistent pricing structure  Contradictory interconnection rules and procedure, wheeling, tariff  Little concern for emission reductions  Lack of standards and norms that would facilitate international trade and regulations C

Other Barrier.  Lack of experience and familiarity amongst decision makers  Lack of confidence and attitude of electricity supply industry  Low utility buy-back rates  Remoteness from areas of high energy demand  Lack of knowledge - administrative procedures and project authorization VIII.

CONCLUSIONS

By adopting Kyoto protocol Pakistan can make valuable achievements to change the local climate as it has only 3-5% forested area. Following points should be considered for the optimum implementation of Kyoto Protocol in Pakistan as far as the electricity generation is concerned.  Governments/utilities must identify the need essential for developers to know the Kyoto Protocol and low carbon emission options.  There should be one or two first demo projects essential to reduce perceived risk and uncertainty for developers. Both technology and economics must be demonstrated  NGOs, aid agencies, suppliers must play a major role in providing technical expertise and subsidies for reducing pollution.  Develop and adopt best practices and standards  Lending agencies must play a major role in issuing power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utilities and prefer to purchase electricity only from those Independent Power Producers (IPPs) which have made their pollution level low.  Local governments must setup mechanisms to develop renewable energy resource information i.e. to set up separate ministry and financing institution  Developers should form a group to present them to governments/utilities  Governments/utilities should provide incentives and subsidies to those which are initializing their work according to the Kyoto Protocol.  Implementing agencies could be integrated utilities, decentralized or public distribution companies, and rural electric cooperatives.

REFERENCES [1] B. Eliasson, M. Robertson, “The global environment issue and the Power Industry”. unpublished. [2] A. Bernard, S. Paltsev, J. Reilly, M. Vielle and L.Viguier, “Russia’s role in Kyoto Protocol”. unpublished. [3] Issues in the negotiationg process- Kyoto protocol mechanisms: Joint Implementation, The Clean Development Mechanisms & Emissions trading. July 25, 2001 [4] OECD Environmental Directorate & IEA, Designing the Clean Development Mechanism; operational & institutional issues. Paper from the 2000 forum on climate change. [5] Spadro, J. V., Langlois, L. and Hamilton, B. “Green house Gas emissions of Electricity Generation chains; assessing the difference” IAEA Bulletin, Vienna, Austria, 2000. [6] International Energy Agency (IEA) Nuclear Power in OECD, Paris, France, 2001. [7] Centre of Geopolitics of Energy & Raw stmaterials, Scenarios of Nuclear power growth in the 21 century, ISBN 2-9518078-0-5, Paris, France, 2002 [8] Policy for Development of Renewable energy for power Generation. Published by Alternative Energy Development Board, Ministry of Water and Power. Govt. of Pakistan. 2006 [9] Akbar M., “Wind Power Plants the fuel savers” vol. # 52 April –June 2006. New Horizons, Journal of IEEEP. [10] Qureshi, S.A. and Majeed, A, “Power Policies and Potential Available for Power generation in Pakistan” vol. # 50-51 October –March 2006. New Horizons, Journal of IEEEP....