Latam Politics Final Notes PDF

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19/09/2017: Populism in Argentina and Mexico ● Mexico vs. Argentina: the perfect dictatorship, elections exist but the outcomes the same ● Features of Populism: ○ Charisma of leader ○ Populism comes as a reactions to political exclusion ○ Strong polarization ○ Strong organization + hierarchy in mobilizing the lower classes; material redistribution to the lower classes ○ Restrictions against trade: economics foster nationalization of infrastructure, industrialization and protectionism ○ Corporatism: economic inclusion of cronies/ governmental ○ Electoral support ○ Tension with pluralism ● Peronism: expression of traditional populism: 2 leaders rather 1, movement and not party ● 3 branches, but labor was the crucial one for survival when out of power ● Electoral hegemony of Peronism, political instability due to polarization, majority of Peronist banned and instability incurred ● Cardenism: populism? Fulfilling revolutionary promises? ● Single leader, but organized party> movement ● Mexico: ○ Sequence of presidents following Mex Revolution: ■ Madero ■ Huerto ■ Carranza ■ Obergon ■ They’re all landowners and generals ■ Calles and Maimato (inclusion of labor leaders), national revolutionary party ■ Cardenas becomes the populist phase, land redistribution, labor rights and nationalization of infrastructure, meeting the promises of the revolution ○ Cardenism ■ Calles → PNR (National Revolutionary Party) and PMR (Party of the Mexican Revolution) ■ Cardenas and the swing of the pendulum, Calles need to appoint him to keep the support of the more radical groups in the revolution ■ Dedazo as a selection mechanism ■ Cardenas need of political support against Calles: concession to workers and peasants and arming of rural militia, which is inclusive populism, and there is economic redistribution. (land reform, higher wages, 1

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nationalization of oil) ■ Progressive labor code that was completely not enforced ■ Prevent the party from breaking in the choosing of the president ■ Cardenas organized this support in a party with a corporatist organization *labor, peasant, military & popular) geographically defined to include or displace regional caudillos (corporatism) → this is the formation of alternative political machines ■ New groups are incorporated into benefits (corporatism), but expected to be loyal to Cardenas (created an alternative labor union, caudillos, to oppose the opposition) ■ Bourgeoisie (civil labour union) ■ Teacher unions - still the strongest political force in LATAM ■ Electoral fraud Argentina: background ■ Conservative party kept winning all elections from electoral fraud ■ Oligarchy and export led growth was characteristics ■ Middle class party (UCR) demanded free, open and fair elections, 1912 electoral reform, UCR victory in 1916, successful democratization is in line with democratization theory ■ Cult of personality, yrigoyen, inclusion of middle class, electoral loyalty to UCR ■ Elections without uncertainty, radicals were always winning and became the predominant party ■ Continued economic politics for export led growth ■ 1930 military coup and return to electoral fraud ■ Great Depression closed avenues of income from export-led growth Peron enters the scene ■ Peron won by swing margin ■ Increased real wages and allowed organization of labor and provided social security ■ Was imprisoned by colleagues fearing his influence ■ Real Wages in Peronism increased/ peaked ■ Peronist policies: ● Expansion of infrastructure and nationalization of utilities ● Real wage increases ● Health and welfare benefits for workers through unions, but tight controls for union leadership ● Expansion of public health through hospitals free for all ● State patronage (growth and nationalization of railroads, phone and electricity) ● Eva Peron foundation (facing rejection from official charities) ● Cultural change (mechanisms, school curriculum) → language. 2

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How do people learn about their leaders? Indoctrination ● 1946-55 (democratically elected) ● Reelection after changing constitution in 1949 ■ Eva Peron died in 1952: riots, polarization ■ Death of Eva, and with Peron out of power without redistributive capacity, cultural effect of Santa Evia, memories of Peronism, Peronist unions kept the Peronist identity even when the party was banned which led to electoral support ■ Despite coups and oppression electoral support was conserved, peronist identity survived ■ Fight for cultural appropriation and the narrative of history and facts ■ Consequences? Social polarization, impassible game (political instability) Similarities and Differences: ○ Economic Preconditions: relatively rich, legit domestic market for trade ○ Policies: generated political groups with functional purpose ○ Political legacies: Arg. swung between dictatorships and oligarchies/ militarist rule for decades, Mexico’s “pendulum” Economic Preconditions: ○ Dramatic decline in exports and imports, GDP share of exports fall dramatically as well (this is true for both Mexico and Argentina) ○ Similitudes? Like Cardenas in Mexico, Peron disliked opposition with a hegemonic drive, with limited competition, ending the Labor Party and the independence of the DCGT ○ Tension with pluralism ○ Sought loyalty of labour unions, incorporated labor unions in implementing policies ○ Differences? Mexico was way more stable. Revolution was institutionalized in Mexico, while there was a lot of political instability in ARG. ○ Stability due to the structure of the pendulum in Mexico versus Peron’s lack of structural support for his governance ○ Eva as a woman - breaking the rules of her time, born out of wedlock, before marrying Peron she was with other men; chauvinism and hate she received was way higher than Peron ○ Cult of personality is very high in Argentina Summary Classical populism embodied by Cardenas and Peron ○ Charismatic leadership connecting to the masses ○ Material redistribution to the lower classes, increase real wages and labor rights, Cardenas had land reform ○ Symbolic redistribution and cultural change, stronger in Peronism (its survival throughout oppression), but Mexico has revolutionary identity already ○ Nationalism and state-led development, both nationalized infrastructure and 3

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public utilities, and expanded public services Inclusion of urban workers and poor (rural poor depends on country), in the political system, also corporatist arrangements in their parties Tenison with pluralism, lack of opposition Argentina X free press (gerrymandering) Differences: institutionalizations of the party, bureaucratic difference

21/09/2017: Import Substitution, Industrialization and Corporatism ● Dependency Theory and Production States ○ Commodity-based, export led growth → raw materials after connection to international market: Arg, Bra, Mexico → oligarchy (arg) or dictatorship (Mex); railroads and infrastructures are built by foreign investors, and all connect to ports instead of connecting people/ towns ■ Limited participation in political system ○ Import substitution industrialization (ISI) with light industry (substitute goods that used to be imported → building up foreign exchange reserve): Peron in Argentina, Cardenas in Mexico, Vargas in Brazil ■ ISI goes well with populism: ISI produce for domestic market, generates much more purchasing power for the workers and generates domestic demand (have a domestic market now) ○ Deepening of Industrialization, heavy industry, government, JV’s and TNCs: capital intense development ■ Bureaucratic authoritarianism (arg, bra) - military repression to reduce consumption (higher savings, to increase investment) and labor costs → produce stability for foreign investors ○ Financial Capitalism: to keep promoting industrialization, OPEC, acquire foreign debt (cheap money) ○ For modernization theory, once you reach democracy you never go back ○ For dependency theory, once you get rich enough you cannot sustain democracy to encourage an environment good for intense foreign investment ● ISI ○ Development strategy to promote industrialization ○ Produce rather than import, produce domestically what it used to import before ○ Inward oriented strategy contrary to the theory of comparative advantage (not specializing actually reduces economic efficiency) ■ Developing country when possible should produce domestically rather than import goods, necessary conditions then: ● The government needs to have a policy to decide which goods need to be produced domestically ● The govt needs to establish trade protection so that these goods are cheaper than same imported goods (tariffs, quotas, permissions) 4

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Govt needs to subsidize the domestic production of those goods (eg/ cheap energy, tax rebates, low or negative interest rates) State intervention to provide subsidies, state ownership of public utilities → esp cheap energy Crucial policy tool : tariffs → force up price of imports Differential tax

Origin of ISI ■ 2 interpretations: ● Eclac: Intentional Public Policy ○ GD/ WW2: need of substitute imports ○ Structuralist view in economics, decline in terms of trade of commodities and thus LA, so ISI as a solution and faster road to development ○ State led process before industrialists require protection, as in advanced countries ● Unintentional Start (Diaz-Alejandro) ○ Growth in richer countries spur industrialization in the 1920’s available capacity in the 1930’s ○ GD has iscal effect on export taxes and restrictions on foreign exchange, import taxes (increase revenues and keep foreign exchange ○ ISI in Arg by oligarchic government of free market believers, without redistribution to working classes ○ Once industrial interest exist, they will require more protection (Hirshman) ■ ISI potential advantages? ● By the 1980’s the strategy collapsed, but why did it stick so long? ● Reduce exposure to volatility of international commodity prices; 98% of modern Venezuela’s exports is oil ● Declining in terms of trade (USD price of LA exports/ USD price of LA imports) → my exports will worth less over time ○ ISI lowers income elasticity of demand for primary goods ○ Technological gains from industrialization ○ Labor market structure, wage and productivity gains ● BoP problems if export value declines in relative to imports, reduce own purchasing power ● Infant industry with backward and forward linkages that generate more employment, jumpstart the entire supply chain ■ ISI Limitations ● Low interest rates generate a bias toward capital intensive 5

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industries, not much employment with low savings rate, ie. low investment ● Industrial and urban bias in expense of agricultural production ● Government as employer of last-resort, fiscal consequence of intervention, inflation due to monetization of deficit ● Subsidies included differential exchange rates that furthered BoP problems → discretion on application, if there’s not enough accountability and corruption ● Subsidization: at some point BoP problems just worsen because run out of foreign reserves ● Dual labor markets and informality (people in formal employment, people in informal service) → overpriced services and goods due to ISI controls, plus informal sector is left out of labor policies ● Requisite of size for the domestic market, poorer and smaller countries cannot follow ISI ■ The Politics of ISI ● Creation of domestic market due to light industry ● Economic inclusion of working class and increases workers’ consumption power, so they buy these manufactured goods, demand for products and wages could be absorbed in prices for lack of competition ● Protectionism increase the cost of imported products ● Unionization is increased ● State-led growth: expansion of infrastructure beyond market demand/ incentives, which is at an inefficient fiscal cost ● State autonomy and nationalism ● Protected sectors lack incentive to become competitive internationally Corporatism ■ Unionization: new political actor in system, along with populist parties with support for political elites, establishment of corporatist arrangements ■ Defn: ● Representation by economic categories, rather than voters ● Reps are economic organizations rather than legislators, these organizations aggregate the demands and coordinate their collective action ■ 2 types of corporatism, Collier and Collier ● Societal corporatism: autonomous organization and inclusion by the state on policy making (originates from society) ● State corporatism: groups are organized with state incentives for 6

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their participation in policymaking, emerges to control societal interests ● Force businesses to organize at industrial level as well ● Organization happens because the government give incentives ● Cardenas: land was redistributed to peasants, but peasants had to organize in order to voice demands to state, but that’s because the government requested it Inducements and constraints ■ C&C measure state corporatism through inducements and constraints using as measures articles in LATAM labor laws ● I: subsidies to form groups - official recognition ● C: mechanisms to control demands and collective action ■ The more the elites need labor allies, the higher the degree of inducements versus constraints Measures of I&C ■ Degree of I&C reflects original balance of power in the bargain between union leaders and elites that included them in the system ■ Mex and Arg: inducements > constraints ■ Peron needed the unions to establish his original political coalition

26/09/2017: Failure of Political Incorporation: Revolutionary Politics ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

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Cuba is peculiar to LATAM because it refused to become independent Sugar based economy with slavery, very late independence, US occupation after SpanishAmerican war (Platt Amendment and sugar quota in US market) Connection between US and Cuba is much deeper than other countries Might explain the longevity of the revolution Left-wing turn under Grau San Martin, US backed Batista coup and influence (1934-59) 1956 Fidel Castro attacks the Moncada barracks, put to prison but amnestied in one year 1956 Granma departs for Cuba, 22 reach Sierra Maestra (mostly middle class young people) → began protests through guerilla warfare, media (NYT = crucial to gaining American support from general public) and support from Oriente squatters As support for Batista declined, multi-class coalition of support for democracy to end Batista’s rule, moderates and radicals work together Fashions self into leader of people resisting dictatorship The Cuban Revolution ○ Moderate start (Jan 1959) ■ Triumvirate, NY visit talk to united nations ○ Radicality → Agrarian reform (May 1959) ■ Expropriate all farmland exceeding 1000 acres ■ Redistribution of land through agency

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■ Nationalization of economy, CDRs, literacy campaign, approach to USSR ○ End of Contestation ○ Expropriated US oil, US retaliation of removing sugar quota, then counterretaliation of expropriating (nationalizing) all US businesses in Cuba, Cuban embargo (October 1960) ○ Rural development, education reform (literacy campaigns), health care expansion (clinic in every village) ○ Cuban government ordered American oil refineries to refine oil from the Soviet Union, but they were ordered by the Treasury Department not to do so ○ 1961 Bay of Pigs Invasion ○ Revolution sees itself as bastion of nationalism against US imperialism (had a history of US oppression) ○ Exit option: all Cuban elites who were fighting against revolution in Cuba had better life in US ○ Both exit option as well as strong nationalism w/ historic background helped Castro stay in power 3 lessons from the revolution according to Che Guevara: ○ Popular forces ○ Peasant support, land reform ○ Clear justification of lack of democracy: development of social consciousness is necessary through “vanguard class” and the masses Women are not part of political organization: “wives as part of general sacrifice” to achieve destiny of revolution Post Cold-War Commodification of Che Guevara Legacy of Cuban Revolution ○ Fight in Colombia remained until 2016 (FARC last to make peace, but mostly a Cold War phenomenon) ○ Structural conditions (necessary> sufficient): geographies matter ○ Social density of student population and leadership ○ Process of land tenure, availability of peasants ○ Successful revolutions sustained by multi-class coalitions - Cuba, Nicaragua, Mexico ○ 1960s: armed struggle as a political alternative to impose political incorporation (from democracy to revolution) ○ The ideological factor of guerilla warfare is extremely important: communism died off after Cold War (the international revolution) 1960’s: global youth rebellion ○ Voluntarism, revolutionary thought ○ Change of repertoire of collective action in Latin America ○ Generational divide, regional diffusion of military tactics ○ Political parties were not paying attention to youth; electoral solution did not seem hopeful 8

Eg. in Cuba Batista did not allow for fair competition Armed struggle existed in democratic settings as well: eg. Venezuela, although it’s easier to mobilize guerilla warfare/ revolutionary forces against dictatorships ○ Consequences? ■ Private and public ■ Militarization of politics, politics as war, end of dissent ■ Danger of being the neutral: the struggle of the military and paramilitary, security issues ■ Weakening of competitive and electoral politics, repetition of coups and subsequent brutal repression ■ Military began to be more repressive ■ Widespread diffusion of military regimes in LATAM and oppression ■ International reaction: US: from Alliance to Progress, to National Security Doctrine ■ LATAM used to be “backyard” of America, under control of US, but then there are civil wars and appearance of Communism in LATAM ■ Alliance to Progress: Kennedy → appearance of communism is because there is lack of equality, promoting progressive reforms in LATAM countries ■ The US moves to National Security Doctrine after communists were democratically elected in Chile ■ There is a shift in policy: defensive, espionage, military training Chile Institutional Legacy ○ Export-oriented growth through mining → oligarchic regime, weakening of presidentialism, and gradual expansion of suffrage ○ Chile won 2 wars against its neighbours and expanded its territory which facilitated expansion of mining ○ There was a fragmented party system ○ Weakening of presidential power, parliamentary system, gradual expansion of suffrage peculiar also because there are a lot of political parties ○ Socialist party of Chile: populist, homegrown and not necessarily tied to the international socialist revolution ○ 3 ideological poles: left, centre (DC) and the right ○ Right and left parties are much older than the centre ○ Kennedy and Alliance for Progress, reformism > revolution, fear of the left. Right did not field a candidate in 1964 (all right voters switch to centre parties) ○ The CDP becomes more powerful ; Frei, and his revolution in Liberty ■ Chileanization of copper ■ Land reform ■ Popular participation: include excluded peasants ■ Expansion of vote (no literacy requirements) ○ US: liked the reformist government of Frei, Chile received heavy aid under ○ ○

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Alliance ○ Political polarization → 1970 election, candidate was more radical than Frei, right fielded their own candidate again ○ Right (ALESSANDRI), DC (Allende with Popular Unity) → ideological and class polarization ■ Upper class voted for Allende much less than average and lower class ■ Lower classes and workers preferred Allende ■ Left and right contestation became stronger ■ Allende and Alessandri → voters motivations are both ideology-based ○ Allende became minority president with 36.2% vote Political Radicalization and Democratic Breakdown ○ The Cuban Road: Cuba is still an example for left-wing governments, shows the viability of armed struggle ○ Diffusion of Cuban model in LATAM and US reaction (Kennedy: AFP to DNS) ○ The Chilean Road: failure of legal road to socialism (US pre-emption), diffusion of the institution of military r...