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Unit III : Impacts of Climate Change: Effects of Climate Changes on livingthings – health effects, malnutrition, human migration, socioeconomic impacts- tourism, industry and business, vulnerability assessment- infrastructure, population and sector – Agriculture, forestry, human health, coastal area...

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Unit III: Impacts of Climate Change: Effects of Climate Changes on living things – health effects, malnutrition, human migration, socioeconomic impacts-

tourism,

industry

and

business,

vulnerability

assessment-

infrastructure, population and sector – Agriculture, forestry, human health, coastal areas IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVING ORGANISMS Humans and wild animals face new challenges for survival because of climate change. More frequent and intense drought, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming oceans can directly harm animals, destroy the places they live, and wreak havoc on people’s livelihoods and communities.

Climate Change - effects on animals, birdlife and plants There is already undeniable evidence that animals, birds and plants are being affected by climate change and global warming in both their distribution and behaviour. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are severely reduced, climate change could cause a quarter of land animals, birdlife and plants to become extinct. Climate variability and change affects birdlife and animals in a number of ways; birds lay eggs earlier in the year than usual, plants bloom earlier and mammals are come out of hibernation sooner. Distribution of animals is also affected; with many species moving closer to the poles as a response to the rise in global temperatures. Birds are migrating and arriving at their nesting grounds earlier, and the nesting grounds that they are moving to are not as far away as they used to be and in some countries the birds don’t even leave anymore, as the climate is suitable all year round. A sea level rise of only 50cm could cause sea turtles to lose their nesting beaches - over 30% of Caribbean beaches are used by turtles during the nesting

season and would be affected. The already endangered Mediterranean Monk Seals need beaches upon which to raise their pups and a rise in sea level could there could damage shallow coastal areas used annually by whales and dolphins which need shallow, gentle waters in order to rear their small calves. Humans have already destroyed many of the natural migrations of animals. The migratory journeys of Wildebeest in several African countries are stopped by fences. Changing rainfall patterns are causing dams to be erected in some areas of our planet, not taking into account the migratory fish and mammals that annually migrate up river to breed and spawn and water birds which rely on wetland sites for migration are at threat from rising sea levels caused by human effects. On the other side of the coin, the atmosphere is sucking moisture from the land at a greater rate than ever before causing severe droughts in many countries which are now facing reduced crop production and major drinking water shortages. Although it is thought that no species has yet become extinct exclusively because of climate change, many migratory and non-migratory species are expected to become extinct in the near future. SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change and socioeconomic development are deeply intertwined. Social and economic activities are the main driver of climate change. In turn, climate change will have serious impacts on these activities, e.g., by rising sea levels and exposure to severe weather events.

Let’s take a closer look at the cycle above to understand the underlying relationships. Since it is us humans who drive climate change, we can also act to reduce the impact of our activities on the climate (mitigation) as well as the impact of climate change on us (adaptation). Socioeconomic Development comprises a myriad of factors like population, economic activity, urbanisation, education, social equality, consumption patterns, lifestyles, and institutions. These factors determine the way we live, including how we use energy and land. Socioeconomic scenarios are used to describe possible socioeconomic futures. Energy & Land Use are the main source of human greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants which both interfere with Earth’s climate. Greenhouse gas emissions include carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation, methane from livestock, rice paddies, waste fills and fossil fuel exploration and nitrous oxide from agricultural sources. Projections of future energy and land use and associated emissions are derived from energy-economy and land use models, often coupled together to form integrated assessment models.

Emissions raise the concentration of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in the atmosphere. This changes the balance between incoming sunlight and outgoing heat radiation at the top of the atmosphere, leading to a radiative forcing of the climate system. Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric transport, and radiative transfer models are used to convert emissions projections into concentration and radiative forcing projections. Climate Change is characterized by rising temperatures and changes in precipitation driven by radiative forcing of the climate system. Earth system models and coupled climate models are used to derive projections of future climate change from emissions and radiative forcing projections. Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation lead to Climate Impacts on natural and human systems through, inter alia, droughts, floods, storms, sea level rise, reduced freshwater availability, heat stress, and potential large-scale reconfigurations of Earth system components (tipping points). Research on these effects is carried out in climate impact studies, which use a suite of models ranging from water transport models to vegetation and agriculture models to produce climate impact projections. Climate impacts will – and already did – influence social and economic activity. Socioeconomic damages emerge not only from the direct impact on physical infrastructure, human productivity, natural resources, and ecosystem services. They also emerge from indirect impacts such as disruptions of globally connected supply chains, deteriorating institutions and climate impact induced migration. Importantly, direct and indirect damages are not only a function of future climate change and adaptation measures, but also depend on assumptions about broader socioeconomic developments.

CLIMATE CHANGE FORESTORY

IMPACT

ON

AGRICULTURE

AND

Agriculture is a major source of GHGs which contribute to the greenhouse effect and climate change. However, the changing climate is having far reaching impacts on agricultural production, which are likely to challenge food security in the future. The principal barrier to food security is currently food access. Sufficient food is produced globally to feed the current world population, yet more than 10% are undernourished. Climate change is likely to contribute substantially to food insecurity in the future, by increasing food prices, and reducing food production. Food may become more expensive as climate change mitigation efforts increase energy prices. Water required for food production may become scarcer due to increased crop water use and drought. Competition for land may increase as certain areas become climatically unsuitable for production. In addition, extreme weather events, associated with climate change may cause sudden reductions in agricultural productivity, leading to rapid price increases. For example, heat waves in the summer of 2010 led to yield losses in key production areas including: Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, and contributed to a dramatic increase in the price of staple foods. These rising prices forced growing numbers of local people into poverty, providing a sobering demonstration of how the influence of climate change can result in food insecurity. Heat waves (periods of extreme high temperature) are likely to become more frequent in the future and represent a major challenge for agriculture. Heat waves can cause heat stress in both animals and plants and have a negative impact on food production. Extreme periods of high temperature are particularly harmful for crop production if they occur when the plants are flowering – if this single, critical stage is disrupted, there may be no seeds at all. In animals, heat

stress can result in lower productivity and fertility, and it can also have negative effects on the immune system, making them more prone to certain diseases.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FOREST In the United States, forests occupy approximately 740 million acres, about one third of the country's total land area. America's forests provide many benefits and services to society, including clean water and air, recreation, wildlife habitat, carbon storage, climate regulation, and a variety of forest products. Climate influences the structure and function of forest ecosystems and plays an essential role in forest health. A changing climate may worsen many of the threats to forests, such as pest outbreaks, fires, human development, and drought. Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests through changes in temperature, rainfall, weather, and other factors. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways. A potentially positive effect of climate change is a faster growth of some tree species. This is due to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the twentieth century, which stimulates the photosynthetic activity of trees. The increase in temperatures also makes it possible to lengthen the period during which trees grow, but multiplies their water requirements accordingly. There is a close interrelationship between climate change and forests. Air temperature, solar radiation, rainfall and concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are major factors in forest productivity and forest dynamics. Forests, in turn, affect climate by removing and releasing large amounts of

atmospheric carbon, absorbing or reflecting solar radiation (albedo), cooling through evapotranspiration and producing cloud-forming aerosols. CLIMATE CHANGE HEALTH IMPACT ON HUMANS

Climate change clearly has health impacts  Climate change clearly has health impacts which are mostly related to water.  Health hazards may be caused by extreme temperatures, an increase in water temperature, water scarcity, and chemical and biological contamination of water used for different

purposes (including food

production and processing).  Increasing water scarcity may limit access to water for drinking water and sanitation, increase the concentration of pollutants, reduce the selfcleaning capacity of sewers and limit the ability of natural ecosystems to assimilate wastes.  Flooding may cause contamination and, especially in large cities, stormwater overflows and pollution.

 In poor and rural areas, environmental health hazards are often even more significant, as water supply and sanitation infrastructure is lacking, in a bad state, or because small service suppliers cannot cope with adverse weather conditions.

Vector-Borne and Rodent- Borne Diseases  Vector-borne diseases result from infections transmitted to humans and other animals by blood-feeding insects, such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas.  Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct

seasonal pattern, which

clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive.  Rodent-borne diseases are less directly affected by temperature. However, the impact of weather on disease- carrying rodent populations (for example, increased food supply or exposure during flooding) can affect transmission of diseases such as hantavirus and flea-borne plague  In general, disease transmission by insects and rodents is a complex process and unique for disease.  Population characteristics, human behaviour, and ecological factors play a critical role in determining when and where disease occurs, which makes it unlikely that increasing temperatures alone will have a major impact on tropical diseases.  There is even greater uncertainty regarding diseases that cycle through animals and can also infect humans, such as Lyme disease and mosquitocarried encephalitis viruses. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON COASTAL AREAS The coastline of the United States is highly populated. Approximately 25 million people live in an area vulnerable to coastal flooding. [1][2] Coastal and ocean activities, such as marine transportation of goods, offshore energy drilling, resource extraction, fish cultivation, recreation, and tourism are integral to the nation's economy, generating 58% of the

national gross domestic product (GDP).[2] Coastal areas are also home to species and habitats that provide many benefits to society and natural ecosystems. Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, increases in precipitation, and warmer ocean temperatures. In addition, rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing the oceans to absorb more of the gas and become more acidic. This rising acidity can have significant impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems. The impacts of climate change are likely to worsen problems that coastal areas already

face. Confronting existing

challenges

that

affect

man-made

infrastructure and coastal ecosystems, such as shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and water pollution, is already a concern in many areas. Addressing the additional stress of climate change may require new approaches to managing land, water, waste, and ecosystems.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON TOURISM

Each tourist destination worldwide has its own appeal. This can come from the activities it can provide to visitors, like skiing or golf, or it can come from their natural beauty or what nature has to offer. It is important that each destination should retain its charms in order to keep the tourist industry booming. Another important factor to keep tourism alive is that of accessibility. Areas that become damaged or inaccessible lose their charm, causing tourists to seek other unspoilt or reachable destinations. With climate change, the beauty of the local destinations is threatened while accessibility too can become a problem especially when airports, roads and bridges are destroyed during extreme weather disturbances. The different impact of climate changes on the tourism industry will be discussed in the succeeding sections.

(i) Coral Bleaching: Affects Scuba Diving Tourists Scuba diving is one of the most popular activities that encourages the growth of tourism. Areas with extensive and diverse coral reefs would attract visitors from different countries to explore the wonders of the underwater world. However, climate changes in recent years have caused damage to the oceans and the reefs. In the Philippines, a country that is blessed with various diving sites, the warming of the sea especially from the El Nino phenomenon resulted to what is known as coral bleaching. Coral bleaching results to the death of about 49% of live coral. Moreover, the higher amount of dissolved CO2 means that corals, molluscs and shells are also destroyed in the process (Ocean Heritage Philippines 2009). Without these organisms and creatures underwater, the diving industry in this nation will suffer. The diving crowd does not have any reason to visit the Philippines if its corals and sea life will continue to experience devastation. (ii) Coastal Flooding and Erosion A more pressing concern of climate changes is the rising of the sea level. Maldives’ elevation is low, which means that the higher the sea level rises, the more likely will the island be over washed with storm surges. It is estimated that Maldives could be removed from the map in the next 30 years if the sea level continues to rise unabated. Not only will the country’s tourism become affected but the entire island would disappear. (iii) Spread of Diseases There are many diseases that thrive on warmer climates. Many of them become spread or carried to other countries that did not have them in the past because of the movement of people and goods. The dengue-carrying mosquito and the malaria-carrying mosquito do not thrive in cold climates. They are found in

tropical countries in Africa and in Southeast Asia. But with the warming of the globe, suitable environments can be created for them in other nations. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON BUSINNESS Climate change is affecting society, the economy and communities across the globe. Increasingly, businesses are considering the impacts of climate change to ensure they are prepared to respond in appropriate ways. Businesses are assessing a number of risks, including physical: the impact of extreme weather events, or supply shortages from water scarcity, for example; transition risks from society’s response such as changes in technologies, markets and regulation; and potential liabilities for emitting greenhouse gases caused by business activities.  Increased Risk Due to Extreme Weather Scientists have linked climate change1 to increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including storms, floods, droughts and heat waves. In the coming years, we will likely see more events that disrupt the operations of businesses and cause them extreme financial and physical damage. Severe weather is a primary reason that climate change increases risk for businesses. Because of this increased risk, insurance costs for many companies will rise as well.  Changes in Resource Availability and Cost These extreme weather events have the potential to disrupt supply chains making getting the resources and materials businesses need more challenging. Severe drought and weather pattern changes may cause a shortage of crops used for food, apparel and other products. Rising electricity and transportation expenses may also increase the cost of moving goods. Regulatory restrictions on

goods linked to climate change could also increase costs. Resource scarcity could drive companies to use alternative materials and recycle more waste.  Changing Demand As the climate changes, demand will shift. As global temperatures rise, for instance, demand for heating oil will decline — as will demand for other winter goods. More consumers are also prioritizing sustainability in the products they buy, shifting demand toward more environmentally friendly goods.  Harsher Working Conditions As temperatures rise and weather patterns change, working conditions in some sectors may become harsher. Jobs that require physical labor, especially outdoors, will become more challenging, and health and safety risk in these industries will rise. This will increases costs in these sectors.  Changing Regulations Regulations aimed at mitigating and preventing pollution will also significantly impact businesses. Companies that produce high levels of emissions will have to invest substantial funding into upgrading their facilities to reduce, capture or eliminate them. Energy companies, of course, are already working to shift their power generation toward cleaner resources. Potential cap and trade programs2 could also have a substantial impact on the economy. Under these systems, companies are legally allowed a set level of emissions. Companies emitting more than their legal limit must purchase extra credits. Businesses that keep their emissions below their legal threshold can sell their excess credits to other companies. Depending on how a firm handles emissions, a cap and trade program could be either an expense or a source of extra revenue for them.

 Increased Public Pressure As the public grows more accepting of climate change as fact, it becomes less accepting of businesses that don't work to reduce their environmental impact. Increasingly, consumers look for products that are sustainably produced or at least have a smaller environmental impact than other comparable...