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Keegan Linwood 201594519

Book Review Keegan Linwood 201594519 GEOG 2337-001 March 28th, 2019

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Keegan Linwood 201594519 A Book Review of The Next 100 Years by George Friedman Summary In the book, The Next 100 Years, George Friedman attempts to prognosticate major geopolitical events and trends in the 21st century. Friedman successfully uses past events to help justify his predictions of the future, which exemplifies the concept of history repeating itself. Friedman predicts that the United States will remain the dominant superpower over the next hundred years, and the majority of geopolitical events will serve as challenges toward American dominance. Friedman predicts that a Second Cold War will emerge between the United States and Russia (2009, p. 6). After Cold War II, Friedman predicts that Russia will be defeated again by the United States, and both Russia and China will experience fragmentation (2009, p. 71). From the collapse of Russia and China, Eurasia will become a “poacher’s paradise” as Turkey, Japan, and Poland will emerge as new powers (Friedman, 2009, 137). After this occurs, an anti-United States coalition, primarily consisting of Japan and Turkey, will form in order to challenge American dominance (Friedman, 2009, p. 174). Rising tensions and animosities will form between a pro United States coalition, and an anti-United States coalition, which will ultimately lead to World War III (Friedman, 2009, p. 194). After World War III, the United States will experience an economic boom, coined as the “golden decade” in the 2060’s, and will remain as the unquestioned world superpower (Friedman, 2009, p. 212). With the majority of Eurasia in disarray, Friedman predicts that the global heartland will shift from Russia to North America, and that Mexico will become the primary challenger to the United States (2009, p. 223). This United States-Mexico conflict will continue into the 22nd century, which is where the book ends (Friedman, 2009, p. 248). Friedman predicts a lot of seemingly farfetched geopolitical events that will occur in the 21st century, but the world vastly changes over time. Friedman also states that, “If we were at the beginning of the twentieth century, it would be impossible to forecast… particular events” (2009, p. 3). Therefore, Friedman is justified in being bold with his predictions of the future world.

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Keegan Linwood 201594519 Commentary Friedman does an excellent job of incorporating the idea of history repeating itself into his forecasts for the future. The United States has been a world superpower since World War II, and has been the unquestioned world superpower since the end of the Cold War. Because of this, it’s no surprise that a sequel to the Cold War could happen in the near future. Because of past ideological differences between Russia and the United States, it will prove difficult for these countries to avoid conflict with each other (Friedman, 2009, p. 6). Friedman anticipates that Russia will again lose this Cold War, as history repeats itself once again. This is justified as Russia still is a relatively new country, rising from the ashes of the Soviet Union. America is just better equipped to win wars, or as Friedman states, “disrupt things so the other side can’t build up sufficient strength” (2009, p. 5). After Cold War II, Friedman predicts that major world events will occur only to challenge American dominance as the sole world superpower. This is exemplified in Friedman’s prediction of World War III with the anti-American coalition created in Eurasia. This coalition, primarily consisting of Turkey and Japan, makes sense because of their respective past conflicts with the United States. In World War II, Japan was a main axis power, and constantly fought against the United States in the South Pacific. In addition, the only nuclear bombs deployed in conflict were dropped by the United States on Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki. No matter how much time has passed, the United States’ past conflict with Japan cannot be forgotten. In World War I, the Ottoman Empire was part of the Central Powers pitted against the United States and other Allied Powers. This may not have been the main source of conflict during World War I, but bloodshed did occur between both countries. Because both Japan and Turkey have had prior conflicts with the United States, it makes sense to form a coalition to challenge the world’s lone superpower. This further illustrates the repetition of historical events, as enemies in past World Wars have the potential to create a new World War in the future.

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Keegan Linwood 201594519 After World War III, Friedman predicts that Mexico will become the next big challenger to the United States’ world dominance (2009, p. 223). Similarly to Japan and Turkey, Mexico shares a hatred for the United States with past conflicts and border disputes. Therefore, it’s not much of a leap to believe that Mexico would fight back once they accumulate more power and wealth in the future. Once again, past historical events effect what may happen in the future, and this makes perfect logical sense in Friedman’s predictions. Discussion It has been 10 years since Friedman forecasted future world events in The Next 100 Years. In that time, it sure looks like the world is heading towards a Second Cold War between Russia and the United States. The complicated relationship between Trump and Putin, along with allegations of Russian influence of the 2016 U.S. election, have increased tensions between both countries over the past decade. Increasing tensions between these superpowers is how the first Cold War began following World War II. Therefore, Friedman’s initial prediction regarding Cold War II seems to be coming to fruition. If Friedman accurately predicts the outcome of Cold War II, with the United States defeating Russia again, then it could create a domino effect that leads to World War III along with his other predictions. Friedman’s thoughtfulness, evidence based logic, and accuracy to this point have demonstrated the quality of The Next 100 Years as a forecast of the future. Friedman successfully uses the concept of history repeating itself to justify his prognostications of the future. Countries who have faced the United States in past wars and conflicts are primed to challenge American supremacy over the next century. The more things change, the more they stay the same, and The Next 100 Years exemplifies this perfectly in a thought provoking prediction of future geopolitical events for all readers alike.

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Keegan Linwood 201594519 Friedman, G. (2009). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. New York: Anchor Books.

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