Clark, Golder, and Golder cultural determinants of democracy PDF

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Clark, Golder and Golder: The Economic Determinants of Democracy

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Classic modernization theory argues that countries are more likely to become democratic and to stay democratic as they develop economically A variant of the modernization theory argues that changes in the socioeconomic structure of a country that accompany economic development in the modernization process (not high income per se) promote the emergence and survival of democracy

Classic modernization theory

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Argues that all societies pass through the same historical stage of economic development Economic historians such as Rostow and Gerschenkron believed that countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in the 1950s and 1960s were just ‘primitive’ versions of European nations and that they would eventually ‘develop’ and come to look like Western Europe and the United States Primitive/ immature countries were characterized by large agricultural sectors and small industrial and service sectors o Would eventually develop into countries w small agricultural sectors and large industrial and service sectors with higher educational attainment and increasing societal ‘complexity’  Przeworski and colleagues (2000, 88): o ‘As a country develops, its social structure becomes complex’ o ‘various groups, whether the bourgeoisie, workers, or just the amorphous ‘civil society,’ rise against the dictatorial regime, and it falls.’ o In effect, democracy emerges out of a dictatorship by economic development

Clark, Golder, and Golder graphed the proportion of countries that are democratic at different levels of income based on data from Przewroski and colleuges (2000, 80) o Income is measured by GDP per capita calculated in 1985 PPP US dollars o Indicates that a country is much more likely to be a democracy if its average income is high rather than low o Nearly all countries with a GDP per capita about $8,000 are democratic o 88 percent of countries with a GDP per capita of less than $1,500 are dictatorships

Critique of modernization theory: ‘Survival’ story

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Increasing income promotes the survival of democracy but does not affect whether a country becomes democratic in the first place. Przeworski argued that increased income helps democracies survive but does not help countries become democratic Decision to choose democracy or dictatorship depends on the types of outcomes that citizens expect democracy or dictatorships to produce for them o For a wealthy person, switching to a dictatorship is a gamble because there is a possibility that they may not be in the dictator’s circle and may become much poorer in contrast to remaining in a democracy and enjoying their wealth.  This is why, according to Przeworski, countries where the average person has a high income tend to remain democratic  For a poor person, switching to a dictatorship is a gamble they are willing to take as the possibility that they may be in the dictator’s circle makes them hopeful. Given that they are already poor and have nothing to lose, poor people may be more willing to take a chance with dictatorship and, hence, why democracy tends to be unstable in poor countries.  This had led Przeworski and various co-authors to argue that the emergence of democracy may be entirely unrelated to the level of income in a country but that we will still observe a long-run positive relationship between increased income and increased democracy because rich democracies survive longer than poor ones.  In spite of this, however, there is empirical evidence that suggests that high levels of income are related to the emergence of and transition to democracy.

Figure 1.1:

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Probability that a country will transition to democracy and the probability that it will transition to dictatorship at different levels of income

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Numbers are grey whenever a country is more likely to transition to a dictatorship than democracy Numbers are black whenever a country is more likely to transition to a democracy than a dictatorship Countries are more likely to become democratic as wealth increases Probability of becoming democratic is six times larger than the probability of becoming dictatorial when GDP per capita is greater than $6,000

Critique of economic determinants: political resource curse

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Barro, 1999 Countries that depend on revenue from immobile assets are less likely to democratize Countries that depend on revenue from natural resources such as oil, diamonds, and minerals, will find it difficult to democratize Demand-side and supply-side explanations for the political resource curse (Uhlfelder, 2007) o Demand-side explanation: resource revenues reduce both the citizens’ demands for democratic reform and government responsiveness to that demand o Gov. does not need to tax the citizenry to extract revenue, they can extract it from the ground. (Beblawi, 1997) o Close connection between taxation and representation B&L, 1985 o Citizens often demand greater representation and accountability when their leaders want to raise taxes o The fact that governments w access to natural resource have a stream of unearned income means that they can afford to keep taxes low. o Demand for greater representation is lower than it should be o COUNTER: this assumes that a democratic system is mainly focused on taxation and representation.  Supply-side explanation: o Resource revenues allow dictators to resist pressure to democratize and help them to consolidate their hold on power o Ross, 2011, 3:  Oil-funded leaders in the ME, for example, are able to mitigate opposition groups by ‘offering new handouts, lowering taxes, or both’  In response to the Arab spring, Algeria announced plans to invest $156 billion in new infrastructure and to cut taxes on sugar  COUNTER: PRC does not say that having an abundance of natural resources in bad, rather, it is the extent to which the gov depends on the natural resources for its revenue  If it depends on NR, it will become autonomous.  If it depends on other sectors, the gov. will have to make credible commitments to its citizens and be representative.

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A country w an abundance of NR can still democratize so long as the income that the government earns from this sector of the economy is small relative to what it earns from other sectors of the economy w more mobile assets.

A variant of modernization theory  Critics argue that the classic modernization theory lacks a strong causal mechanism and that it simply relies on an empirical correlation between income and democracy (Acemoglu and Robinson 2006)  Changes in the socioeconomic structure that accompany economic development (not only high income level per se) promote the emergence of democracy o For example, the increase in mobile assets. o As the modernization process brings about efficiencies in the agricultural sector, resources are freed up for the use in the manufacturing industry. o Consequence of these changes is that the economy increasingly comprises actors with mobile assets  Bates and Lien (1985): this composition of the British economy played a crucial role in the creation of representative government in England o 17 century modernisation in England – brought about shift in economic power o Small ag. Elites who controlled large portions of the easily quantifiable agricultural products � rising class of wool producers, financial intermediaries, controlled assets that were not easily quantifiable and thus, were more difficult for the state to tax. o According to B&L, the ability of the gentry to hide their assets from state predation changed the balance of power between modernizing social groups and the traditional seats of power – esp. the Crown o Crown had to negotiate w elites in order to extract revenues o Increased urbanisation � increased wool trade � increased economic decision makers whose actions determined the share of the revenues available to the crown � actors use their new found bargaining power to increase the strength of institutions such as Parliament that helped aggregate their interests o Result was the supremacy of the Parliament (increasingly democratic system) and the withering away of the old avenues of representation th

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Increased income � increased occupational differentiation, improved education, growth of the service economy � facilitates democratization (Ross, 2001)....