Fall 2018 CCPP Syllabus. Updated. October 1, 2018-1 PDF

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Climate Change Policy and Perspectives FES 840a, GLBL 745, YLS 20039 Fall Semester, 2018 Monday/Wednesday 2:30 – 3:50pm Location: Yale F&ES, Sage Hall, Bowers Auditorium, 205 Prospect Street Professor Daniel Esty, Hillhouse Professor of Environmental Law and Policy Office Location: FES office (Kroon Hall #139), YLS office (Room SLB 272) Office Hours: Professor Esty’s office hours will rotate among various days and times and will shift back and forth between his FES and YLS offices. Appointments for a specific timeslot can be made through Jamerlyn Brown at 203-436-5182 or [email protected]. Teaching fellows will hold weekly office hours and will be available by appointment. Teaching Fellows: Courtney Durham (MEM ’19; [email protected]; 202.262.1525) Franz Hochstrasser (MEM ‘18; [email protected]; 831.588.2191) Sam Mardell (MEM ‘19; [email protected]; 781.475.4274) Course Description and Learning Objectives: This course will examine the scientific, economic, legal, political, institutional, and historic underpinnings of climate change and the related policy challenges of supporting a prosperous and sustainable modern society. Particular attention will be given to analyzing the existing framework of treaties, law, regulations, and policy – and the incentives they have created related to the build-up of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. The course will center on a set of critical questions including: What would a 21 st century policy framework that is designed to deliver a successful response to climate change look like? Does the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement provide the right foundation for action? How should issues of equity be addressed? How might incentives be structured to engage the business community in climate change problem solving? While designed as a lecture course, class sessions will be highly interactive. Required readings cover broad thematic territory, commensurate with the sweeping coverage of the course. Readings include several books and a number of articles, studies, and reports that will be available on the Canvas. Students are expected to come to each class prepared to engage in back and forth dialogue around critical questions, which are provided in italics for each class session in the syllabus below. Students are required to attend a weekly discussion section, where critical questions will be discussed in smaller groups. There are no prerequisites for this course, although some familiarity with environmental law and policy will be helpful. Students are encouraged to enroll simultaneously in Professor Sue Biniaz’s four-week “Climate Change Negotiations” mini-course, which will cover complementary material.

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Students interested in attending COP 24 in Katowice, Poland might also want to enroll in Professor Gordon Geballe’s half-semester “International Organizations and Conferences” course, which will cover practical details about the COP process. The Geballe course will prepare students to contribute as informed delegates at COP 24. Students enrolled in the Geballe course will participate in a special weekly discussion section of FES 840a, led by Courtney Durham. Professor Esty’s FES Program Manager is Timothy Mason ([email protected]; Kroon Hall G31). Professor Esty’s YLS Assistant is Kelly Hernandez ([email protected]; Room SLB 327). Course Assessment Breakdown and Description of Assignments: Grades will be based on three factors: 20%

Class participation (including attendance, preparation for class, and contributions to class discussions)

30%

Short written analysis assignments (three 2-page “policy memos” over the course of the semester, chosen from the twenty-three available prompts – each 10%)

50%

Final exam (a take-home analysis writing exercise available on December 5 and due on December 10 – alternative dates will be arranged for students attending COP 24 in Katowice)

Policy memo topics are provided in the syllabus. These memos should be structured as actual memos to your choice of decision makers. Each one should make the case for an answer to the question posed using tight logic, careful arguments, and compelling writing. Citations should be included as appropriate (endnotes can be on a third page). Essays must be submitted as Word documents using 12-point type, single-spaced, with double-spacing between paragraphs. Essays should be e-mailed to Professor Esty ( [email protected]), Courtney ([email protected]), Franz ([email protected]), and Sam ([email protected]) by midnight the night before the class for which the memo topic corresponds. The first of the three policy essays should be completed by September 25; the second must be completed by October 28; the third must be completed by December 2. Canvas Page Usage Policy: All course readings have been posted on the Canvas course site. Any course related messages will be announced through Canvas. Students are expected to check the course page for updates prior to each class. Laptop Policy: Professor Esty allows the use of laptops in class, but cell phones must be put away.

Course Outline:

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UNIT ONE

BACKGROUND

August 29 September 3 September 4 September 5 September 10 September 12 September 17 September 19 September 24

Course Overview No Class – Labor Day Movie Watch Party and Discussion: Before the Flood Trends in Climate Science and Policy U.S. Energy Politics and Policy History Climate Change: A Policy History COP 21 and the Paris Climate Change Agreement America’s Greenhouse Gas Control Efforts Beyond National Action: Mayors, Governors, and Business Leaders

UNIT TWO

PATHWAYS FORWARD

September 26 October 1 October 3 October 8 October 10 October 15 October 17 October 22 October 24 October 29 October 31

Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Climate Change Justice (Guest Lecture: Sue Biniaz) Natural Gas: Bridge to Sustainability or to “the Edge of the World?” Electrification: Storage, Electric Vehicles, and the Smart Grid Deforestation, Carbon Capture, and Geoengineering No Class – October Recess Pathways to Deep Decarbonization - Innovation Adaptation and Resilience Carbon Pricing Financing Climate Change Action

UNIT THREE

INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS

November 5 November 7 November 12 November 14 November 19 November 21 November 26 November 28

Climate Change Policy in the European Union Climate Change Policy in China Climate Change in the Developing World Trade, Competitiveness, and Climate Change No Class – November Recess No Class – November Recess Global Environmental Governance Geopolitics, National Security, and Climate Change

UNIT FOUR

POLICY PERSPECTIVES AND COMMUNICATIONS

December 3 December 5

Climate Change Communications No Class – Work on Final Exam

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Unit One

Background

August 29 Class 1

Course Overview Why does climate change matter? Why might climate change be considered a tragedy of the commons? What are the drivers of climate change? What are the “planetary boundaries” of the Earth as a system?

Required Readings: Barbara Freese. Coal: A Human History. Penguin Books, 2003. (Read chapters 1-3). Garrett Hardin, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” 162 Science (1968), pp 1243-48. Kerry Emanuel. What We Know About Climate Change. MIT Press, 2007. (Read pp. 3-93, skim if you are familiar with the science of climate change). Daniel Yergin. The Quest. Penguin Books, 2011. (Read introduction, Prologue, chapters 11-12). Johan Rockström et al. “A Safe Operating Space for Humans.” Nature 461 (2009): 472–475. DOI: 10.1038/461472a. Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a Suggested Readings: Barbara Freese. Coal: A Human History. Penguin Books, 2003. (Skim chapters 5-9). Will Steffen et al. “Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet.” Science (2015). DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855.

September 3

No Class – Labor Day

September 4 7:00 – 10:30 pm

Movie Watch Party and Discussion: Before the Flood Kroon Hall, Burke Auditorium What are most pressing problems caused by climate change? What are the solutions proposed in the movie? Which are most compelling?

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September 5 Class 2

Trends in Climate Science and Policy What do we know about climate change? What don’t we know? How has the pattern of energy consumption changed over time? Why are energy trends important to understanding climate change? Can we conserve our way to a sustainable future?

Required Readings: Climate Change Trends and Data packet, posted on Canvas. Al Gore. “An Inconvenient Truth.” 2006 (book synopsis). Link: http://www.ontheissues.org/Archive/Inconvenient_Truth_Al_Gore.htm Al Gore. “The case for optimism on climate change.” 2016. Link: https://www.ted.com/talks/al_gore_the_case_for_optimism_on_climate_chan ge#t-246883 Christiana Figueres et al. “Three years to safeguard our climate.” Nature (2017). Link: https://www.nature.com/news/three-years-to-safeguard-ourclimate-1.22201 Gus Speth. The Bridge at the Edge Of The World. Yale University Press, 2008. (Read pp. 67-88; skim pp. 17-66). Daniel Yergin. The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power. Free Press, 1991. (Read pp. 523-542). IPCC. “Summary for Policymakers.” Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 2013. Link: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf Suggested Readings: “Climate change: How do we know?” NASA. Link: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy. “Environmental Performance Index Summary for Policymakers.” 2018. Link: https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/2018-epi-report/executive-summary Daniel Yergin. The Quest. Penguin Books, 2011. (Read pages 25-26, 28-29, 35-36).

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David Wallace-Wells. “The Uninhabitable Earth, Annotated Edition.” New York Magazine, 2017. Link: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hotfor-humans-annotated.html Kevin Loria. “The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere just hit its highest level in 800,000 years and scientists predict deadly consequences.” Business Insider, 2018. Link: http://www.businessinsider.com/carbondioxide-record-human-health-effects-2018-5 POLICY MEMO:

Should policymakers focus on climate change as a “crisis” or on promising technological solutions? How important is optimism to solving the climate change crisis?

September 10 Class 3

U.S. Energy Politics and Policy History What should U.S. national energy policy goals be, and what interests should inform these goals? How have the major U.S. energy policy initiatives of the past 40 years fared? What have been the obstacles to policy progress toward clean energy systems in the US and in other countries? Which nations have coherent national energy policies?

Required Readings: Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2018) - "Energy Production & Changing Energy Sources." Published online at OurWorldInData.org. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources Michael Graetz. The End of Energy. MIT Press, 2011. (Skim pages 1-147, 265-270). Jason Channell et al. “Energy Darwinism.” Citi Bank, 2013. Link: https://ir.citi.com/Jb89SJMmf %2BsAVK2AKa3QE5EJwb4fvI5UUplD0ICiGOOk0NV2CqNI %2FPDLJqxidz2VAXXAXFB6fOY%3D Trevor Houser, John Larsen, and Peter Marsters. “The Real Electricity Reliability Crisis.” Rhodium Group, 2017. Link: https://rhg.com/research/the-real-electricity-reliability-crisis-doe-nopr/ Christopher Ingraham. "What the EPA's proposed fuel standards could do to your gas mileage.” Washington Post, 2018. Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/02/what-epas-

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proposed-fuel-standards-could-do-your-gas-mileage/? utm_term=.675ce56bfcf0 Suggested Readings: Sir Nicholas Stern. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. Link: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100407172955/http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/d/Executive_Summary.pdf. (Read Executive Summary) David Anthoff and Robert Hahn. “Government failure and market failure: on the inefficiency of environmental and energy policy.” Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy 26 (2010): 197–224. Link: http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/26/2/197.full.pdf+html Stephen Lacey. “Energy Policy in Trump’s Washington: Year One.” Greentech Media, 2018. Link: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/energy-policy-in-trumpswashington-year-one#gs.xpPu=1g. (Podcast recording is 52 minutes; the article lists other recommended readings). POLICY MEMO:

Should energy policy focus on harnessing cheap energy as the key to economic competitiveness? If so, how? If not, why not?

September 12 Class 4

Climate Change: A Brief Policy History Why is climate change a partisan issue in the United States? Is climate change a politically polarizing issue in other countries? What have been the major policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the US? How have they worked? What policy tools have been deployed to address climate change globally? What can we learn from the success of the Montreal Protocol?

Required Readings: Michael Graetz. The End of Energy. MIT Press, 2011. (Read pages 155-216). Justin Gundlach. “How Much Does the Existing Regulatory Patchwork Reduce U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions?” Columbia Law School, 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7916/D8959HDJ Ian Parry and William Pizer. “Emissions Trading Versus CO2 Taxes Versus Standards” Resources for the Future, 2007. Link: http://www.rff.org/files/sharepoint/WorkImages/Download/CPF_7_IssueBrie f_5.pdf

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Kelly Levin, Benjamin Cashore, Steven Bernstein, Graeme Auld. “Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change.” Policy Sci 45 (2012). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-012-9151-0 Suggested Readings: James Hansen, “Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near,” in Bill McKibben, ed. The Global Warming Reader (2011). Waxman-Markey Bill. “H.R.2454 - American Clean Energy and Security Act.” Link: https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/house-bill/2454. David Roberts. “The once and future Democratic consensus on climate change.” Vox, 2017. Link: https://www.vox.com/energy-andenvironment/2017/11/18/16669094/democratic-consensus-on-climate-change POLICY MEMO:

Can the political process in Washington create policy for meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions? If not, what would need to change for a major climate change initiative to advance?

September 17 Class 5

COP 21 and the Paris Climate Change Agreement What are the elements and institutions of the international regime to address climate change? Are these institutions working? What was accomplished at COP 21 in Paris? What is the significance of this outcome? What explains the success in Paris after years of disappointing results? How do non-state actors engage in the UNFCCC talks? What is the Action Agenda?

Required Readings: C2ES. “History of UN Climate Change Talks. https://www.c2es.org/content/history-of-un-climate-talks/ IPCC. Fifth Climate Change Assessment Report: Synthesis Report. 2014. Link: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf. (Read Summary for Policymakers). Daniel Bodansky and Lavanya Rajamani, “Evolution and Governance Architecture of the Climate Change Regime”, in Detlef Sprinz and Urs Luterbacher (eds), International Relations and Global Climate Change: New Perspectives (MIT Press, 2nd ed, 2016). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2168859#.

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Decision of the Parties to the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties (COP21). UN Environment. “Emissions Gap Report.” 2017. Link: https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/22070. (Read Executive Summary). Ted Nordhaus, “The Two-Degree Delusion: The Dangers of an Unrealistic Climate Change Target” in Foreign Affairs, February 8, 2018. Link: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-02-08/two-degreedelusion. Suggested Readings: William Nordhaus. Climate Casino. Yale University Press, 2013. (Read pp. 3-66). Jules Kortenhorst. “The Paris Agreement: 10 Key Takeaways For the Global Energy Landscape.” Rocky Mountain Institute, 2015. Link: https://rmi.org/news/blog_2015_12_18_the_paris_agreement_10_key_takea ways/ “Adapt, Curb, Engage: 21 Solutions to Protect Our Shared Planet.” Cities4Climate, 2015. Link: https://envirocenter.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/21%20Solutions%20to %20Protect%20Our%20Shared%20Planet.pdf David Roberts. “No country on Earth is taking the 2 degree climate target seriously.” Vox, 2017. Link: https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels Mengpin Ge and Kelly Levin. “INSIDER: What’s Changing As Countries Turn INDCs into NDCs? 5 Early Insights.” WRI, 2018. Link: http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/04/insider-whats-changing-countries-turnindcs-ndcs-5-early-insights POLICY MEMO:

Did the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement change the trajectory of the global response to build-up of greenhouse gas emissions? If so, how? If not, why not?

September 19 Class 6

America’s Greenhouse Gas Control Efforts What was the Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan? What interests support the Trump Administration’s proposal to back away from the CPP? What interests oppose repeal?

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Is the Clean Air Act an appropriate basis for driving action on climate change? What is CAA Section 111(d)? Required Readings: William Nordhaus. Climate Casino. Yale University Press, 2013. (Read pp. 197-232). Nathan Rott. “Trump Moves To Let States Regulate Coal Plant Emissions.” NPR, 2018. Link: https://www.npr.org/2018/08/21/639396683/trump-movesto-let-states-regulate-coal-plant-emissions The New York Times. “What Is the Clean Power Plan, and How Can Trump Repeal It?” The New York Times, 2017. Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/10/climate/epa-clean-power-plan.html Nathan Rott. “Trump Moves To Let States Regulate Coal Plant Emissions.” NPR, 2018. Link: https://www.npr.org/2018/08/21/639396683/trump-movesto-let-states-regulate-coal-plant-emissions Suggested Reading: Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. 497 (2007). Link: https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/549/497/ “Climate Change: An Evangelical Call to Action.” The Evangelical Climate Initiative, 2006. From Bill McKibben. The Global Warming Reader. Penguin Books, 2011. US EPA. “Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Review of the Clean Power Plan: Proposal.” 2017. Link: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-10/documents/ria_proposedcpp-repeal_2017-10.pdf US EPA. “FACT SHEET: Proposed Affordable Clean Energy Rule – Overview.” 2018. Link: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/201808/documents/ace_overview_0.pdf POLICY MEMO:

Will repealing the clean power plan help or hurt the US economy? Why might some power utilities and other companies...