Power and Politics in Today\'s World Part 1 PDF

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Power and Politics In Today’s World: Final Exam Study GuidePart 1: The Collapse of Communism and its AftermathLecture 1: Introduction & Course Summary Today's world - 30 years since 1989. o Unusual period of great change, compared to the previous 40 years of relative stability (Post-war). o...

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Power and Politics In Today’s World: Final Exam Study Guide ****Part 1: The Collapse of Communism and its Aftermath**** Lecture 1: Introduction & Course Summary  o o

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Today's world - 30 years since 1989. Unusual period of great change, compared to the previous 40 years of relative stability (Post-war). International stability due to cold war.  Exceptions - Cuban missile crisis, Vietnam war.  But most conflicts were played out as proxy wars. So from the POV of western democracies' citizens, it is a far off war. No great impact on the stability of people's lives (except soldiers). Fall of the Berlin Wall - 1989 Soviet union shedding totalitarian control for the first time in decades. Context: in China, Tiananmen square. Generally speaking, democracy was on the rise.  Democratization in Eastern Block countries, South Africa ending Apartheid, problems in Norther Ireland were settling in 1997 Good Friday Accords, and Israel-Palestine seemed to be moving towards resolution - Early 90's Oslo accords - everyone anticipated a settlement before Rabin's assassination in Nov. '95.  Francis Fukuyama - the end of history. Democracy sweeping the world. We went from a non-democratic world to a world where most countries were democracies by most standard measures.  Enormous confidence in democratic capitalism, ending poverty, world heading towards benign equilibrium. September 2017 Germany AFD - Alternative for Deutsland.  Far right, anti-immigrant, anti-system political party. Celebrating crossing the 5% threshold to get seats in parliament. There had been a Coalition between the SPD (moderate left) and the CDU (Merkle's conservative/centrist party).  Coalition ends - so Merkle tries to ally with FDP (libertarians) and the Green party. Fails lol bc green regulation and libertarians don’t go together. This took 6 months  During 6 months, AFD rises in popularity, so German president didn’t want another election because Social Democrats refused to join Merkel in a coalition. Everyone knows that another election => AFD does better.  Social democrats persuaded to go back into coalition because terrified of AFD doing better in another election -- secured concessions from Merkel's party.  Politics seem to stabilize but October 28, 2018 Germany Merkel resigns, wont run for reelection, steps down as party head. Bavarian region - CDU hemorrhages support to AFD, SPD loses support to the greens. Fringe parties growing stronger.

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This is a scary trend - reminder of 1932 elections. Nazis become largest political party in Germany, taking 30 something % of the vote. 2016 massive shocks to establishment parties:  Brexit result in UK,  Trump's populism - Austrian election - green candidate defeats far right 54/46, but far right gains ground in legislature. Establishment parties come in 4th and 5th.  Belgium - center right party retains majority, but increased support for far right (12% of vote) and gained seats.  Italy - center left cedes power to center-right. But votes for center-right come for the far-right party (17%) - gained 109 seats since a few years earlier. The trend is the same across eastern europe, Turkey, Latin america.  Anti-establishment, sometimes anti-system parties gain ground. Central Questions How did we get from there to here? What are the challenges and prospects going forward? What politics and policies will get us to a better place? (US an elsewhere) Shapiro's approach Study history with the tools of political science and political theory, use history to keep them honest.  New data, avoids "just so stories" - fitting the theories to the data.  Allows us to test out political theories against unprecedented new events.  Modernization theory - holds that modernization produced democracy.  Conventional wisdom - democracy incompatible with state-run economies.  But vietnam and China have become "state capitalist" while not being democratic.  Sheds light on :  relationships between business, govt, and labor. Communism taken off the table, has a huge impact on business, govt, and labor relations.  Provision of public goods (which types of democracies are more/less likely to do so)  Much of political theory doesn’t take where we actually are into account. Thinking about normative questions must also be realistic in order to be impactful. i.e. 4% global wealth tax perhaps theoretically desirable, but not viable. Paths not Taken.  NATO expanded or shut down (french prez wanted this) after cold war? How would that have changed things?  9/11 - could we have not invaded Iraq? (a politically viable option).  Other possibilities to respond to 2008/9 economic crisis? Study politics and policy together  How can we ensure good policies are adopted and bad ones are shut down? Shape of Course

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Collapse of Communism & Aftermath The rise of liberalism at home and the Washington consensus abroad results from disappearance of communism as a viable economic system.  Neoliberalism. - mildly regulated free market capitalism.  Get rid of internal regulation  Ease of international trade.  Massive privatization.  Pushed to developing world as Washington consensus - condition for giving loans to developing countries. IMF, World Bank. New Global order?  3 waves  4th wave? Arab spring? Democratization continuing now?? Northern Ireland?  Intl. institutions  ICC holds dictators accountable. a. Creation of UN doctrine of the responsibility to protect (in the wake of Rwandan genocide '94, Kosovo '99). The end of the end of history  9/11 => global war on terror. Invasion of iraq, libya, collapse of syria.  End of the idea that history is heading in a benign direction.  Resurgence of state capitalism. China.  Intervention in Africa  Resurgence of Russia as a global power (actively involved in ME and elsewhere now).  Role of business in ptx conflicts. New Politics of Insecurity.  The way govts. Responded to the financial crisis. (paths not taken).  Govt ended up bailing out elites w/o doing much for those harmed by the crisis. What is to be done? (great Leninist slogan)  How was the votive sentiment so poorly diagnosed - to the point where they failed to respond to the growing economic insecurity, and even instituted political reforms that were likely to make things worse.  What kinds of policies were pursued, which ones might have been pursued, etc… 

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Lecture 2: From Soviet Communism to Russian Gangster Capitalism

Background info Aug 19, 1991 -Moscow •

Coup to remove Gorbachev.

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"too ill to continue in office"

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Armored personel carriers surround govt. ministries.

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Gorbachev had come to power in '85 after Brezhnev. died in'82.

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Feb 1985- Gorbachev. But head-scratching in west.

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charismatic, younger, behaved like Westerner. Charm offensive.

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strong rapport w/ Reagan

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perestroika- restructuring USSR econ. old command system reform

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Glasnost- free speech- opening of state media. Allow regime criticisms.

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G Did nothing to stop exodus of eastern Europe from the Block.

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Reformer, not revolutionary. Gradual adjustment.

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But had to fight against hardliners on both sides.

Yeltsin •

gets on tank, declares new govt. not legit

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calls for resistance. Build obstacles to prevent attempts to take parliament.

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Decisive moment when military says it won't support the coup . won’t fight against the people.

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Yeltsin is a radical-thinks reforms must go faster and be more extensive. Resigned from CCP politburo which had never been done before. ⇒ conflict between him and Gorbachev.

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Leaves CCP → Russian politician. Runs 2b in Russ. parliament

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elected president of parliament b4 coup.

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not Soviet parliament, just Russian.

Power passes from G to Y •

Because G won't leave the party.

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Yeltsin siezed the moment. -men who designed glasnost backed him now.

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Democrats > CCP

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After rally, Russian flag hoisted instead of Soviet hammer + sickle.

Why did USSR collapse? Timeline

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Baltic States announce secession

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Referendum to keep USSR together:(91) -Baltic States refuse to come.

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Coup

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Ukraine votes to secede.

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Yeltsin secretly meets w/ Ukraine Prez-agree USSR no longer exists.

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Confederation of Independent States formed.

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Gorbachev Resigns, Ussr ceases to exist@ end of December.

Why collapse? •

Unsustainable system: stores empty-couldn't buy on legal market. nutrient central command economy ceased to function.

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people making decisions have poor info . .

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poor work incentives.

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Containment worked. Don't go to war, just prevent econ expansion abroad + wait.

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Soviets got involved in quagmire war in Afghanistan in the 70's. Spent a decade embroiled there.

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Regan announced Star wars. Increased cost of arms race to an unsustainable amount.

Why did USSR collapse so Peacefully? •

"This elephant didn't stumble around. just ended with a whimper, not a bang."

why did elites give up power so easily? •

they had already learned from Berlin, had found ways to protect themselves from the collapse.

Hirschman schema: how people respond to decline. •

3 choices.

1) Leave declining organization 2) Complain, try to push to change- Voice

3) change it yourself. •

People will chose what to do based on the cost of doing each.

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company: cost of exit for shareholder low. will leave. for worker, cost high, will voice

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in USSR, disappearance of loyalty in population and elites towards USSR.

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Yale delegation to CPSU.

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widespread evidence of brazen corruption: KGB agent selling currency @ black market prices. Offer to sell weapons, even nukes, to South Africa.

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Vadim Zagladin's Revelations: USSR unsustainable. must be replaced. leading politburo official. says system is Bankrupt. Concluded this in 1978.

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country elites did not believe in public ideology of the country.

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Suggestions to transform economy slowly met by fury. nobody had the attitudes expressed by Gorbachev. loyalty to party & reform seem mutually exclusive to most.

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conclusion: no loyalty.

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Also, Reduced cost of exit. why?

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political costs low

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elites could go become leaders of the new institutions forming. Georgia, Belarus, et

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leading figures took subordinates with them.

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Economic costs low → oligarchs

a) officials move $ overseas. initally for loyal motives- USSR reserves. -

But after '91 coup attempt, Soviet Bureaucracy disappeared. people in control of Bank accounts no longer supervised.

b) theft of state assets also ⇒ Oligarchs. Rem Vyakhirev & Gazprom. Let friends/relatives buy parts of Gazprom for low prices, flip it, and pocket the difference. c) Russia inherited a weak & bankrupt state. -

inflation, collapsing Ruble, heavily reliant on oil, but fluctuating prices ⇒ high instability.

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defaulted on debt- had us bailed out by IMF

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky & Mendip Bank. (Yukos Guy) speculate against the Ruble, gain large sums of $. He also did the loans-for shares scheme.

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context: communist resurgence in '95 ⇒ huge backing of Yeltsin by oligarchs who wanted 2 avoid. Gave loans to govt to save it, in exchange for shares of state companies.

****Rise of Gangster Capitalism •

this is the oligarchy stuff above.

From Yeltsin to Putin: Reconstituting State Power. Yeltsin's oligarchs vs Putin's oligarchs. •

Oligarchs waged war on imposing govt. capacity to tax

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Putin did reform this. 13% flat tax. Reduced taxes across the board. Used high oil prices to create a sovereign wealth fund for a rainy day.

How do we know a weak state when we see it? •

lack Rule of law

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no monopoly on use of force

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inability to tax, low capacity for raising revenues.

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had to tax exports b/c no capacity to tax profits. No way to audit companies.

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Haphazard use of power.

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When govt. capacity to enforce is low, the govt. must rely on unpredictability & severity of punishment.

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Putin:

a) took down Khodorkovsky (Yukos & Rosnet). Gets attn of other oligarchs. Putin also siezed back much of Yukos and claimed it for Rosnet- state- owned oil conpany. b) took down Vyakhirev, who had been giving away gas & oil fields. Putin fired him & reclaimed the assets. c) Bill Browder. making lots of $ by acquiring companies and getting rid of corruption. Putin hates him. Hermitage Capital Management. -

Browder believed his early success in Russia was due to his acumen as an investor.

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But that’s because he was only going after Yeltsin’s oligarchs.

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But once he went after Putin, oligarchs, his lawyer + accountant were mauled by police.

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Magnitzky act, passed by OB in 2012 let US freeze oligarch's foreign assets and sanction them, and ban them from entering the US

Why is Russia so corrupt and what can we learn from this? •

Most ppl in Russia think most others are corrupt.

Path dependence? Resource Trap: Oil Curse •

it looks like half of econ is services. But many sectors are connected to hydrocarbons. 3/4 of Russian econ.

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Govt. Revenues highly dependent on oil. 40%.

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makes for lots of corruption. Access to oil sector = immediate wealth. So officials in charge of it profit.

Why not diversify? 1) Beneficiaries want to keep SQ. 2) Govt needs it b/c hard to raise $ any other way. 3) Source of geopolitical power. -

oil goes to western europe.

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Germany = top importer of Russian oil & gas.

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this is why no NATO response to Ukraine.

Lecture 3: A Unipolar World? NATO, The Washington Consensus, and the European Union International architecture of the early post-Cold War world  NATO expansion  Washington Consensus  EU enlargement Three lenses on Politics  Interests - focus on people's interests.

E.g. Marxism, formal rational choice models (use economic approaches to politics that focus on people's individual interests). Common wisdom on politics - people expect others to do things in their interests. o In IR, this falls under the title of Realism. Countries will follow their individual interest. But not every interest theory of IR is realist. Some say you have to look at how domestic interests influence international interests.  But the main idea behind Realism and the other schools - look at the interests of the relevant actors. They are all interest-based. Institutions o Domestic politics: indep. Some thing courts and SOP are important. Others think it’s the political parties that are most important. But they all agree the institutions are most important. o On the international level - look at intl. institutions like NATO, UN, etc… there are many types  Liberal institutionalists o Tensions between institutionalists and interest-based accounts. Ideals - ideas, cultures, norms are what influence politics o Realists will say that this is besides the point o But others think that norms are important and structure the decisions people make o Constructivism - Normative behaviors (norms shape our behavior). Shapiro's view: to say "Which is the right one?" Is the wrong question. All are true under different conditions. We should try to understand which apply under which conditions - and this is always changing. o

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The First post-Cold war international security crisis. Saddam Hussein's Invasion of Kuwait. Aug. 2, 1990.  Operation Desert Storm. o UN approved, authorized by Security Council with Cuba and Yemen Voting Against. o China Chose to Abstain, but didn’t veto. USSR supported it.  US not blameless: Bush seemed ton indicate earlier that he would be OK with SH invading Kuwait.  HOWEVER, o This was an action of last resort o It was proportional: stop the bully without becoming one o It wasn’t unilateral: broad regional support and participation (except Jordan). And Security council authorization was given.  If this template was followed, the world would look really different. However, this was a path not taken for settling future international security crises. NATO & the UN  Both created in 1940's after WWII.  The United Nations (initially) o UN created from the remnants of Wilson's League of Nation's idea following WWI. o Created to prevent nations from going to war. To mediate/resolve disputes without "bombs and bayonets". o Truman made this one of his top Priorities.

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But four years later, the situation had changed. NATO created as an alliance to face down the Soviet Threat. o "The best deterrent to aggression is the certainty that immediate and effective countermeasures will be taken against those who violate the peace…" o "If the free nations do not stand together, they will fall one by one" How did this Alliance take shape? o Article 5 of NATO Charter: parties agree that an armed attack on one of them shall be considered an armed attack against all of them. They will take actions they deem necessary to ensure security of the North Atlantic Area, including the use of armed force. And the security measures taken shall be terminated when the Security council takes the necessary. (we will not cease and desist militarily until the UN security council makes the problem go away through their means) o Realists would say that the UN is subordinate to NATO.  Realists are against NATO - it would unnecessarily militarize the relationship with the soviets, they will militarize in response (Which they did).  This is stupid - countries act in self interest, they wont be guided by military organizations, just as they wont be guided by UN when it comes to deciding their best self-interest.  Remember George Washington farewell adress: international incumbrancers  This was a long policy of US presidents - refuse to join permanent alliances.  US presidents had never formed eternal alliances, in adherence to Washington's precedent.  Lord Palmerston Quote. Was NATO successful? o Could the cold war have been Won without it? Counter-factual. We don’t know. Imponderable. o NATO never went into battle during the cold war.  Until Kosovo in 1999, even though Article 5 not triggered.  Afghanistan after 9/11  Libya in 2012

NATO after the cold war  Francois Mitterand: it's done its job, lets get rid of it. o But this is hard to do b/c of East Germany. It's almost inevitable that german reunification would occur.  German reuni...