Project on Demand forecasting of Hutatma Dudh Sangh PDF

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Shivaji University Kolhapur

1.1) Introduction:-

In any business concern there are different department viz., purchase, finance, personal, marketing, production etc. success of business depends upon all these department out of that marketing department is almost importance as it was money center. Without marketing the business concern can not exist. The success of marketing depends upon market information, consumer’s information about buying activities. The study “demand forecasting of Hutatma Dudh Sangh” is selected for practical fulfillment of MBA program. Before planning about marketing, organization needs to identify its target consumers and their decision process. In the present world we find that in order to known the position of the product and also demand for the product in future, consumer opinion and post dada becomes vital. To achieve these objectives the researcher conducted the study. This research problem deals with the “Sale forecasting for Hutatma dudh sangh, Walwa.In order to competition with other companies, the organizations needs to acquire competency with respect to have a sale forecast. Organization need’s to estimate the current and future sale and quantitative measures are essential to analysis marketing opportunities, planning marketing program and controlling marketing efforts. The size of market depends upon the interest of buyers, their income and access to the market offer. R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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There fore, the study of demand forecasting in vital framing production policies, price decisions regarding distribution channels and decisions regarding sales promotion. This project will help the organization in planning, controlling and directing the production program, marketing activities and store department etc.

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1.2) Objectives of the Study:-

In any study there are some intentions or objective On the basis of this objective the study is directed and completed. Researcher has selected the “ Following are the main objectives of the study. 1) To make in depth study of marketing activities of Hutatma milk. 2) To study the past trend of sales of the organization. 3) To predict the sales of Hutatma Milk for near future. 4) Identification of tools and measures for implementation of sales forecasting. 5) To study factors affecting on sales volume of product.

1.3) Scope of the study Actually sales forecasting is an estimation of projected sales for near future period. Simply speaking of sales forecasting involves reviewing performance history of products or service and related it to the marketing and sales efforts of the firm with in the anticipated market environments like economics competitive technological and public policy and buyer’s behavior.

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1.4)

Methodology of the study : -

Researcher used both primary and secondary data to conduct the study.

A) Primary Data :Primary data refers to the data collected from primary sources i.e. the data collection by the investigator. Primary data is also called as an original data. Since it is collected for the first time by researcher research was selected Walwa Town for to collect primary data. A research was utilized survey method for primary data collection. Survey was made with the help of questionnaire. Questionnaire was made for the specific consumer segment. Research was selected 50 consumers as sample from the entire population (consumer of Hutatma Dudh). By using survey method and with of the questionnaire research was selected primary data from 50 consumers. B) Secondary Data :The secondary data on the other hand are based on second hand information. The data which have already organization been collected, complied and presented earlier by any agency made be used for the purpose of investigation. For this study researcher has used past years sale figures as a secondary data to calculate the demand for next fiveyear. Demand estimation was done by trend equation method.

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 Statistical and Quantitative Method:The all method of sales forecasting is based on personal judgment. Personal judgment, if supplemented by the statistical and quantitative, the accuracy of sales forecasts may be more reliable. (a)

Trend equation method.

(b)

The regression method

As compare to regression method, trend equation method is more reliable and more accurate.

 Trend Equation Method:Under this method trend of organization or industry’s sales to other movements is fixed with the help of historical data of different variable available. The statistical approaches including moving average correlation analysis. The basis assumption in this method is that factors, which had been responsible for the past movement, will also play an important role in the in the future. The trend method can be used for both linear and non-linear relationship.

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1.5 Limitations of study:-

For conducting the study researcher faced some difficulties and these may by treated as obstacles / limitations of the study. 1) For sales forecasting, there are different techniques such as expert’s opinion method, market test method, time series analysis, statistical demand analysis, trend equation method and regression method. This study is limited to trend equation method. 2) Sales forecasting is very wide concept and also it very difficult to consider all the components for sales forecasting. 3) Hutatma Dudh Sangh is very busy unit, so they can’t devote much time to research, which researcher has accepted from them.

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2.1

Introduction to industry

 Address –

Hutatma Co – operative Dudh Sangh Ltd., Walwa, Padwalwad Road, Walwa, Tal- Walwa, Dist-Sangli.

 Phone No.

-

(02342) 267808, 267544.

 E-mail

–

[email protected]

 Status

–

Co-operative.

 Establishment –

23/7/1997

 Establisher

Nagnath (Anna) Naikwadi.

–

 Production commencement –  Registration No.

–

23/7/1997

Regi.No.MSCS/CR/67/97/ Date 23/7/1997

.  Managing Director –

Mr. R. B. Kamble.

 Chairman

–

Shri Vaibhav N. Naikwadi.

 Type of product

-

Milk, Shrikhand, Pedha, Ghee, Basundi and Lassi.

 Branch

–

 Department &

 Customers –

Athani (Karnataka) – Production department, Quantity control dept, sales

marketing dept Human Resource department finance dept.

Mahananda, Pune, Pachagani, Mahabaleshwar and

Walwa Village

 Employee -

150

 Audit Class - A R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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2.2) Milk Industries In India :-

Introduction:-

The early 1915 saw a milk revolution in India. Milk, which is free from cholesterol, contains a good percentage of water and rests includes fats, lactose, proteins vitamins. Milk can be rightly called ‘Natures gift’ to every creature on the planet. Though milk in India is only 145 Gms. (1985) where as the western country the per capita consumption is 700 Gms.

2.3) The Beginning :The India sub-continent however is also one of the world’s major regions with an ancient milk culture. Milk consumption itself subject to rapid changes in consumption and volume due to urbanization and the spread of new life styles possess a major and growing demand on agrarian production system. It is the structural imbalances between the demand for milk producers for urban consumption and the potential for tapping rural surplus to meet this demand. A report written in 1895 for Bombay Govt. States that Swedish firm exhibited a cream separator in Gujarat, within few months two cream separators had been set up in Gujarat were processing according to the report. 3200 IB of milk the cream that separated was sent to Bombay and separated milk sent to Ahmadabad and Baroda. In 1909 it is stated in Anand Taluka. R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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The enterprise of butter production becomes important in character after 1911 with the establishment of military dairy in Anand and Polson’s dairy in 1914 with the colonial Govt. at was the poison’s butter was needed for the Indian Army and it was exported to Mesopotamia. The establishment of dairy increased the competition of milk and cream. During the first world was there is boom in the milk prices and special report on dairy industry stated that the quality standards were not maintained. There was a lack of hygiene and it was allegedly that butter was adulterated. The extent of the spread of the dairy industry was such that by 1915. Anand taluka had 38-cream separators. The boom in milk prices, which lasted till 1919, made the milk dealers corner the milk economy. A lumpsum as a bribe was usually given to village leaders who in return gave the assurance of collecting the milk of the entire village for dealers.

2.4) Operation Flood:-

India National Dairy developments milk operation flood aims at-

a) Capturing a dominant share of urban milk market. b) Creating a procurement network to link, humorous co-operative producer societies in different milk shed area, the organization urban dairy industry. c) Upgrading the milk- production capacity of the Indian born stock through a program of cross breeding veterinary services. R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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The operation flood program has been made possible largely on the basis of dairy commodity aid and grants received from a variety of international agencies. The most important of which have been the world flood program (WFP) of United Nations food and agricultural organization (FAO), the European Economic Community and World Bank.

2.5) Anand pattern :-

The program follows the model, which has evolved in Khed district in Gujarat “The Anand Pattern”. The Kaira districts co-operative milk producer union (KDCMPU) has successfully organized itself to gain control over the milk trade to Bombay. This, milk trade has been existing since. The 19th century and had been organized by private collectors and middleman. The KDCMPU subsequently set-up the Anand milk producer union 1td. (Amul) at Anand.

The “Anand Pattern” has come to mean a three organizational structure linking primary producer societies responsible for procurement to district co-operative unions engaged in processing and product manufacturing while at the state level district unions are grouped together into federations, changed with co-ordination of marketing function. These whole Frames have been projected as a representative structure in which directing at union level is elected R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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by the representatives of each primary societies while union in turn depute representatives to federal bodies.

2.6) Brief History of Organization :-

The Hutatma Dudh Sangh. Walwa. Is popular in sangli district. The Dudh sangh is situated in Padawalwadi Road, Walwa. Dudh sangh is established in 23/07/1997. The main intention of the Dudh sangh is to give the maximum rate to the milk the majority of population of Walwa is engaged in Agriculture therefore plenty of row materials available. The Dudh sangh is registered under multistage etc. The detail information of organization as follows.

2.7) Governing Body:-

The body consists of 10 directors electors elected from different categories. It also has one expert nominated as director, two one a managing direct; usually we have a chairman and vice-chairman selected by the selected directors. Presently Mr. V. N. Naykawadi is the chairman while Mr. B.B.Patil. Are vice-chairman and Manager Director is Mr. R.B.Kamble. Mr.Balasaheb.Patil. Is the marketing manager in the charge of all the marketing in the organization? Shareholder and Investment The total investment till this date of the Hutatma Dudh Sangh is Rs. 10 corers and shareholder investment is Rs. 44, 31,000 /R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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2.8) Organization products:-

The Dudh Sangh produces various products namely good quality of processed milk, and it products like shrikhand,

pedha, Ghee,

Basundi and lassi. The various products are available in different volumes. The dairy is successful in maintaining the brand image of the product in the market. The Dairy uses the milk for producing the products having the 4.5 to 5.5 fat and also uses cow milk. T Hutatma Pedha’s demand is very high and the Lassi is new product of the Dudh Sangh therefore the Lassi is popular in Walwa.

2.9) Dairy Plant:-

The dairy plant is well equipped with machinery. The collected milk is processed in this plant. In this plant the packaging unit where different packages of milk are produced. This plant also includes cold-storage rooms where shrikhand, pedha and Ghee is produced and stored. Because the all products are perishable therefore it is necessary to have a cold storage room.

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2.10) Dairy farmers’ organization:-

Name of regions in Maharashtra. i)

Walwa

ii)

Miraj

iii)

Shirala

iv)

Tasgaon

v)

Palus

Name of regions in Karanataka i)

Chikodi.

ii)

Athani.

iii)

Raybag.

iv)

Jamkhandi.

The union is operation in 9 Talukas of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Fortunately the union has developed a good network for milk procurement as well as extension service which encourages farmers for increasing the milk production as it becomes their ensure of earning. Before the establishment of union the middlemen are exploiting the farmers by making the lowest milk prices and were purchasing as per their requirements. But now with constant efforts by the union the scenario is completely changed and a farmer becomes more aware for their milk quality and they are getting milk payment on quality basis. Due to ensure regular payment the farmers R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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are purchasing highly ending buffaloes and cows by borrowing loan from nationalized and co-operative bank, which result in the milk production.

2.11) Milk Distribution:The milk distributes retail packs of 200 ml, 500 ml and 1 liter in plastic pouches. The quality of this milk is of international standard. This milk is pasteurized and is well packed. The pasteurized milk is supplied to various organizations like Mahananda, Mumbai, Pune and Walwa town.

2.12)Future plans: 1.

High value added, product will be manufactured by Hutatma Dudh Sangh Milks & distributions network will be organized.

2.

Export Shrikhand & other products.

3.

Increase in the capacity of milk powder, Ghee manufacturing.

4.

Artificial insemination centers in big villages.

5.

To increase the market collection area from other district.

2.13) Milko – Tester:-

Dudh sangh provides the milko – tester to the milk societies. The sangh gives 50% concession in milko – tester. The main intention is to remove the malpractices and the milk – produces get how much R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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fat to their milk. Dudh sangh has appointed two electrical engineers for the maintenance of these milko – testers. So the milko – tester becomes the important in dairy industry.

2.14) Objectives of the Organization:The Hutatma Dudh Sangh, Walwa, is situated in Walwa Taluka. There is large market acceptability Hutatma Milk and Milk products. The Dudh Sangh is successful in maintaining the brand image in the market because of following objectives. 1) The main objective is to increase the collection of milk, as well as to increase the market of milk and milk products to satisfy the most of population. To remove the monopoly in dairy business and to give reasonable returns to the milk producers. 2) To encourage the management staff and workers for additional study on dairy and dairy technology etc. 3) To serve the level of living by providing the employment to the society. By providing the employment the workers earn something and this earning is helps in increase the standard of living. 4) Undertake activities of procuring clean and quality milk at fulfill the market requirement. 5) To increase the collection of milk as well as to increase the market of milk and milk products to satisfy the most of population. R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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2.15) Organization Chart:-

The organization set up adopted by Hutatma Dairy as follows – Organization is creation of network it is a task of mobilizing the necessary resources. It is systematic and rational relationship of authority and responsibility between people and groups organization includes dividing the whole work into manageable task by departmentation, decentralization, delegation and span of control. The organization chart of Hutatma dairy is simple, with duties and responsibilities of each person. Managing Director controls the whole business activity and he takes all major decisions with the consultation of chairman.

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Organization Chart:Organization Structure

Shareholder

Board of Directors

Managing Director

Production

Personal

Marketing

Finance

Department

Department

Department

Department

Dairy

Labour

Marketing

Chief

Manager

Welfare

Manager

Accountant

Officer

(Walwa)

Asst. Dairy

Retailers

Accountant

Consumer

Cashier

Manager

Shift Manager

Dairy Supervisor

Lab Assistant

Workers R.I.T. Management Studies, Rajaramnagar.

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Sale forecasting 3.1 Introduction

In the marketing field, nothing happens unless something is sold out sales forecasting is an important event in marketing the whole marketing and production systems depend on sales forecasting i ,e., to estimate the sales for a specified future period either in terms of money or in terms of unit which forms the basis of proposed marketing plan. Th...