Quiz 4 Study Guide PDF

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Quiz 4 Study Guide. Given a set of questions to know and includes answers pulled from readings....

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1. Who have "words of estimative probability" typically been used by? For what purpose? Used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring Provides a decision maker with an unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision 2. What kind of role could you find yourself in (at Vanderbilt or later in your career) where you would use these words? Provide an example of a situation you might use them for and provide a specific example of a sentence you might write or speak. Certain 100, almost certain 93, probable 75, chances about even 50, probably not 30, Almost certainly not 7, impossible 0 - percent chance Likely more than 50, frequent 10-50, occasional 1-10, rare less than 1 I am almost certain that the quiz results will be returned on friday. 3. How does the key point of this article relate to the key concepts in Darwin Hunt's The Concept of Knowledge and How to Measure It and Nat Gage's article The Obviousness of Social and Educational Research Results? Knowledge article: It said that theres degrees of knowledge based on how certain someone is Obviousness article: People will believe anything that is conceivably reasonable and say that it is obvious People should standardize words in order to insure clarity in what they are saying

4. What are "weasel words"? Provide some examples. Why are they different than the words of estimative probability that appear in various tables throughout the article? (The answer to this question is not explicit in the article. You need to do some thinking...) Weasel words - create an estimative statement using “maybe” or “suggest” “might” “could” “possibly” “maybe” “may” - theyre vague and symptomatic of the problem - certain to cause confusion WEP - express their confidence in the finding - while weasel words don’t...