CBC case 2015 v2 - Appunti 1 PDF

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Colonial Broadcasting Company CASE

Along with ABN and BBS, Colonial Broadcasting Company (CBC) is one of the three major American television network. The dataset Colonial_Broadcasting_case.syz contains a sample of 88 TV movies broadcasted by the three networks. These are the variables included in the dataset: - Ratings: Nielsen rating for movie - Competition: average of Nielsen ratings received by the two competing networks during the movie’s broad cast - Top_movie: dummy variable, 1=successful movie, 0=unsuccessful movie - Previous Ratings: Nielsen rating for program immediately preceding movie on same network - Budget: amount spent to produce a film (in millions of dollars) - Fact: dummy variable, 1=based on true events (fact-based), 0=fictional - Stars: dummy variable, 1=the movie has one or more “star” actor/actress, 0=no stars in the movie

1. CBC is interested in analyzing the aspects that explain the success of a film with respect to its competitors. A movie can be defined as successful when its rating is higher than the average competitor’s program ratings. Use a logistic regression model to study the relationship between the probability that the film is successful and the following variables: Fact , Previous rating and Budget. Comment on the meaning of the estimated coefficients and their statistical significance. 2. Generate the confusion matrix using the default cut-off value. What is the true positive rate? Is the default cut-off (0.5) suitable in this specific case? 3. With a confidence of 95%, can we assume that a movie based on a true story, that costs 35 million dollars and the previous program with a 20 in ratings, will have a probability higher than 90% of being a successful film?

4. If the previous rating remain constant (we assume equal to 15), on average, is it more likely that the success of a film is based on a true story that costs $25 million or on a fiction that costs $45 million?

5. How do you evaluate the inclusion of the variable Stars in the logistical regression model estimated in point 1? Is the model more effective with or without the Stars variable?...