Cog notes 4 - informal vs formal reasoning PDF

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informal vs formal reasoning...

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Cog&bio revision notes 3 Informal reasoning -Formal reasoning (deductive/inductive) is too narrow an approach to reasoning -Informal reasoning: Arguments based on own relevant knowledge, experience or opinion Not based on logical forms; More error prone Informal vs formal reasoning: -Ability to spot fallacy in informal reasoning is weakly associated with deductive reasoning performance (Ricco, 2003): Thus different cognitive processes involved. But if you are good at overcoming belief bias (accepting believable but false conclusions in syllogistic reasoning) then you tend to be better at spotting fallacies in informal reasoning (Ricco, 2007) -Content is important in informal reasoning (and in real life) less so in formal reasoning (Hahn & Oaksford, 2007) Consider the following: Ghosts exist because no one has proven they don’t The drug is safe because we have no evidence that it isn’t Superficially similar but because ghosts are implausible, drugs aren’t so the second statement seems more plausible, even though both involve an absence of evidence -Contextual factors more important in informal reasoning Information from a perceived expert or authority figure is more plausible and persuasive Oaksford & Han (2004): A theory of informal logic: Three things influence the perceived strength of a conclusion: -Degree of previous belief. How much you believed something Vitamins are naturally good for you -Positive arguments have more impact than negative ones Taking vitamin C won’t hurt you and might help you cold -Strength of evidence Lots of people take vitamin C and get better, plus my mum always told me to take it when I was ill Reasoning is limited: Human reasoning has its limits Motivations to influence and improve thinking and reasoning toward answer don’t always help (Camerer & Hogarth, 1999) Performance is sometimes improved in some circumstances and for some people but not all and it’s never flawless We are limited animals with limited resources – we evolved that way We get it wrong even when we are given lots information and great effort is made to help us fully understand the problem -Dunning-Kruger effect: “those who are incompetent… have little insight into their own incompetence” Dunning, 2011, p, 260) or You don’t know what you don’t know

People with out insight into their own thinking mistakes often fail to improve Confidence in performance isn’t related to actual performance....