Economic - Economische factoren voor een DESTEP-analyse tussen Spanje en België. PDF

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Economic FactorsSpain: GDP (2018): $1211,32B -> forecast $1420,00B by end of quarter GDP per capita PPP (2017) $ 34272,36 -> forecast $ 34812,5 days to start a business 00,00 by end of quarter Competitive index 74,  Country risk rating (economic) -> 0,9 moderateMade-in-cou...

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Economic Factors Spain:  GDP (2018): $1211,32B -> forecast $1420,00B by end of quarter  GDP per capita PPP (2017) $ 34272,36 -> forecast $ 34800,00 by end of quarter      

12,5 days to start a business Competitive index 74,20 Country risk rating (economic) -> 0,9 moderate Made-in-country index: 20th place Government expenditure (2015): $ 246,4B Government budget (2017) -3,1% of GDP -> forecast -1,5% of GDP by end of quarter

Short term:

The next general election in Spain will need to address potentially conflicting pulls: the pressure to make the current economic upturn more inclusive, while remaining true to its fiscal responsibilities. The lack of unifying themes does represent a risk to Spain's economic growth from 2019 onwards. Spain is still gripped by a standard-of-living crisis, while its incidence or risk of poverty is higher than its Eurozone peers, including Italy. Overall, the next general election could focus on the distressed state of parts of the household economy, highlighted by compressed real income growth, high youth unemployment, and poor job security for some. Medium and long term: The economy is likely to perform solidly in the medium term After suffering an acute economic and financial crisis, Spain is on a solid recovery trajectory and is now one of the fastest-growing economies in the Eurozone (source: Country report Spain IHS Markit 2018)

Business:  -4,1 Bussiness confidence (2019) -> forecast -10,2 by end of quarter  Corporate tax rate (2019): 25%  Bankruptcies: (4th quarter 2018) 1489 companies -> forecast (1st quarter 2019) 1120 companies  Ease of doing business: rank 30 out of 190 Prices/money:  Inflation: 1% (Jan 2019) -> forecast 1,20% by end of quarter  CPI (jan 2019) 103,09 -> forecast 104,62 by end of quarter  Loans private sector (dec 2018) 443650 EUR -> forecasted to rise  Legal interest rate (2018) 3% -> max rate being able to charge  Bank lending rate (dec 2018) 0,937 % -> forecasted 1,19% by end of quarter  Euro exchange rates is important because they work with a lot of foreign companies for their products.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/765065/statutory-interest-rate-in-spain/ Labour:  Unemployment rate 14,55 at the end of 2018 -> downwards forecast for 2019  Job vacancies (Jan 2019) 47,16 Thousand -> forecasted 58,20 Thousand by end of quarter  Labour costs (2nd quarter 2018) 102,40 index points -> forecasted 106,50 by end of quarter  Wages (3rd quarter 2018): 1842,62 Euro/month -> forecasted 2050,00 Euro/month by end of quarter

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Minimum wages (2019) € 1050 per month -> forecasted € 1210 per month in 2020 In 2017 most employees work in service sectors and have a lower secondary education. Employees are on a sick leave 10,4 days a year on average

Consumer:  Consumer confidence (jan 2019): 93,8 -> forecast 90 by end of quarter  Consumer spending (4th quarter 2018) -> € 173866 -> forecast € 170468,00 by end of quarter Import/Export: 

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(2017) $333B total import o

$198B (60%) Europe -> $8,81B (%) Belgium

o

$73,5B (22%) Asia

o

$25,2B (7,6%) Africa

o

$22,4B (6,7%) North America

o

$12,3B (3,7%) South America

o

$1,04B (0,31%) Oceania

Import 2017 (top 10) o o

nr 3. Machinery including computers: $34.6 billion (9.9%) nr 4. Electrical machinery, equipment: $26.6 billion (7.6%)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/spains-top-10-imports/ https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/esp/ 

Trade deficit 2,57B (end of 2018)

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import prices index 114,1 (end of 2018) -> forecasted to rise to 115 in 12 months

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Import duties range from 0% - 17% (depends on the product)

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21% VAT – 10% Reduced VAT – sometimes a reduction of 4% tax apply.

Transport:

Buildings (for example storage):

Construction output (end 2018) 1,2% -> forecast Education:

https://ec.europa.eu/education/sites/education/files/document-library-docs/et-monitorreport-2018-spain_en.pdf http://web.b.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=16&sid=51e7e515-c898-40ee9ab2-a05f387fc86b%40sessionmgr102 Spain statista country report by Statista November 2017 Technology products:

Advertising:

Belgium: 

GDP (2018) $492,68B -> forecast $495,00B by end of quarter

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GDP per capita PPP (2017) $ 42658,58 -> forecast $ 42900 by end of quarter

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4 days to start a business

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Competitive index 76,61

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Fiscal expenditure (2017): € 228976,10 Million

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Government budget (2017): -1% of GDP -> forecast -1,8% of GDP by end of quarter

Business: 

Corporate taxrate (2019): 34%

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-1,5 Business confidence (jan 2019) -> forecast 1,80 by end of quarter

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Bankrupties :



Ease of doing business

Prices/money: 

Inflation (2019): 1,99% -> forecast 2,10% by end of quarter

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CPI (jan 2019): 108,17 -> forecast 109,60 by end of quarter

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Bank lending rate (end 2018) 1,57% -> forecasted 1,60% by end of quarter

Labour: 

Unemployement (dec 2018) 5,50% -> forecast 6,20% by end of quarter

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Job Vacancies (3rd quarter 2018) 149180

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Labour costs (3rd quarter 2018) 111,60 index points

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Wages (2015) € 3445 per month -> forecast 3700 per month in 2020

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Minimum wages (2018) € 1562,59 per month -> € 1570,00 per month by end of this quarter

Consumer: 

Consumer confidence (jan 2018) -6 -> forecast 1 by end of this quarter

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Consumer spending (3rd quarter 2018) 55361 Million -> forecast 54656,00 by end of this quarter

Import/export: 

4,9% growth in export of goods and services

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High technology export $ 30,703,539.07



(2016) Belgium export

o Spain: $10,61B 

Trade surplus 520 million (end 2018)

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Export price 122,67 (end 2018)

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Import duties ranging from 0% - 17% (same as Spain)

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21% VAT – 12% VAT – 6% VAT – 0% VAT

Transport:

Buildings: 

Construction output (end 2018) 2,5%

Education:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ic.reg.durs https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG? end=2017&start=1961&view=chart https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/tx.val.tech.cd?end=2017&start=1988&view=chart...