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Page 1 10/29/19: Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis The First Conspiracy ● The Secret Soviet-Castro relationship ○ La Coubre ■ On March 4, 1960, this French ship carrying Belgian weapons mysteriously blew up in Havana harbor. Over a hundred were killed ■ Fidel tells KGB that he’s absolutely sure the US was behind the explosion ● Some leaders are conspiratorial by nature (e.g., FIDEL CASTRO) ● Convinced that the US is ready to attack the revolution ■ Asks for Soviet submarines ○ Raul visits the Kremlin July 1960 ■ Raul goes to Moscow & meets with Soviet leader ● He & Fidel believes that the US will be attacking their revolution after the explosion of La Coubre ■ Raul asks: “Do you think the US could arrange an intervention under the banner of the OAS?” and Khrushchev responds: “It is not a real possibility now.” ● Within Soviet intelligence, there is a sense for a real opportunity for the Soviets & communism through the Castro brothers ● No grassroots desire within Cuba to be communist ■ YOUNTSIE (Youngsters) becomes AVANPOST (bridgehead) ● KGB changes code name for their relations with the Castros ○ Recap: ■ Castro brothers intended a second, Communist, revolution all along. They understood they needed to build a cadre of Marxist-Leninist officers to avoid what had happened to Arbenz (learning from 1954) ■ Communism and the connection to Moscow were likely once Fidel, Raul, and Che took power ■ Evidence Soviet-era records and oral histories with Cubans & Soviets ● Americans react ○ DDE (Eisenhower) approves policy of overthrowing Castro in March 1960. It was assumed that the regime required a little push, as did Iran and Guatemala. The Indonesian counterexample is forgotten ■ Iran & Guatemala were successes, thus they make the same assumption that the Cuban regime would collapse ■ Failure of operation in Indonesia is not even mentioned ■ Election is upcoming and Americans are seeking to replace DDE as of January 1960 ○ The plan involves training Cuban exiles in Guatemala for guerrilla operations ■ The number of exiles that the CIA is training grows in the fall of 1960 and the plan is reworked into an invasion plan ■ Guatemala is pro-US after overthrow

Page 2 Kennedy learns about the plan after his election and it is formally presented to him in March 1961. Distracted by Laos, he wants something simpler, less likely to attract world attention to the US ■ North Vietnam & China (Communist) are making gains in Laos and US has committed to protect Laos ■ US trying to stabilize Laos after collapse of French powers The Education of a President ○ Handover of secrets from one administration to another wasn’t formalized ○ Sukarno ■ When Kennedy comes to power, no one briefs him on Sukarno disaster (Indonesia) ○ Foreign Intel Advisory Board Warns Eisenhower about Covert Action ■ People who had succeeded in intel & are brought in & given full clearance to advise the president on the intel community ■ Eisenhower had received warnings from the board about covert ops but never warns Kennedy ● Focuses on his concerns in Laos ■ Feb. 2, 1960: ● Warns about the efficiency of the covert operations to Eisenhower ■ Jan. 5, 1961: ● Covert operations are probably not worth it & entail risks to Eisenhower ● 16 days before he leaves office ○ Kennedy decides to keep the same national security team as Eisenhower did (Allen Dulles, etc.) ■ Secret Golden Boy ● Richard M. Bissell, Jr. ● Yale grad (econ tutor to McGeorge Bundy - Kennedy’s National Security Advisor) ● Early Cold War covert action ● Marshall Plan ● Guatemala ● U-2 ● Head of Directorate of Plans (CIA Clandestine Service), 1958-1962 ● Comes up with the Trinidad Plan ● Didn’t tell Kennedy that he screwed up in Indonesia ■ Trinidad Plan, March 11, 1961 ● Location of invasion in Cuba ● 1500 people (Guatemala on steroids) ● Kennedy says no ■ Kennedy had proposed the Alliance for Progress and by events in Faraway Laos ● US wants the British, Soviets, & France to stabilize Laos & make it into a neutral country ● However, the US was overtly attacking Soviet allies in Latin America ○

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Page 3 ● Thus, Kennedy wants operation in Latin America to be more covert Zapata Plan, March 16, 1961 ● Came up way too soon after the Trinidad Plan ● Invade the Bay of Pigs (a swamp) ■ Fiasco April 17-19, 1961 ● FAILED; JFK hadn’t fully implemented/dedicated to the plan ● Like Sukarno in Indonesia, Castro regime controlled Cuban military (not the case in Iran & Guatemala) ● In Fall 1960, Castro had eliminated most of his opposition ● JFK didn’t know about Indonesian case. He had fired PFIAB [Daddy issues] ● CIA assembled PBSUCCESS team ● JFK distracted by Laos & his admin was impressed by Richard Bissell ● US Military didn’t express doubts after CIA changed the landing site ● JFK eliminated most of the air raids ○ Two Presidents, Different Tolerance for Covert Action ■ In 1954, when Guatemalan operation was on the verge of failure, DDE authorized use of US planes. He also supported US naval blockade ■ In 1961, JFK refused the use of US planes and was reluctant to get US Navy involved ● Worried about effect on US policy in Latin America & in SE Asia ○ The Education of a General Secretary Krushchev ○ Puffer Fish, No More ■ Roswell Gilpatric’s speech in October 1961 that asked them to stop bluffing ■ End of Khrushchev’s strategy of bluff ○ New strategy - Meniscus ■ January 1962 ■ Americans have more power than the Soviets, and the only way to deter them is to scare them ● Must distract them around the world so that they can’t take advantage of the fact that they have more nuclear weapons than Soviets do ■ Take international politics right to the top (Meniscus effect) ● Create crises around the world to distract the US w/o telling the US that his aim wasn’t world war ■ Khrushchev proclaims worldwide policy of pressure tactics ● In Berlin - he believed that US was particularly vulnerable here ● In Laos - endorses China & communists in Vietnam & Laos ● No pressure in the Caribbean b/c didn’t want to give Americans a pretext for invasion to Cuba ○ First Soviet defense plan for Cuba, March 1962 ■ January 30, 1962: Adzhubei with Kennedy ■ March 1962, Khrushchev overturns freeze on conventional arms deal with Cuba ■

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Page 4 Sept. 1961: Soviets weren’t sure with partnership with Cuba Decides to give conventional weapons & trains Cuban army to prepare for eventual invasion by US army Escalante Affair (April) Kremlin supplements September package with Soviet troops, One Sopka Shore Launcher and 10 IL-28 Badger bombers ● ●

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Laos ■ ■

May 6: Pathet Lao, Chinese, North Vietnamese coordinate offensive at Nam Tha May 14: Kennedy orders 1800 Marines plus two air squadrons to Thailand ● Be in position to invade & secure the capital of Laos ● Kennedy worried that Communists were trying to overtake & make communist part of Thailand Bulgaria, May 1962 ■ Khrus. Heard of US position in Thailand ● Angry b/c reminder that US have project force (move around air force carriers) while Soviets had none ● Believes that his Meniscus strategy is failing ■ Khrushchev decides to send missiles to Cuba ANADYR: Soviet Deception Operation ■ Need to get by US who had strong navy ■ July 1962: Soviets stop declaring commercial cargos ● Put more than 50,000 troops on ships b/c are sending both ICBMs and tanks & short range missiles ■ Cuba-bound troops told they are going to Siberia ■ Soviet military furnishes Cuba-bound troops with winter clothing The Global Mousetrap ■ July 1962: Raul visits Moscow ● Cubans say that they don’t need nuclear weapons to protect themselves against the US (they just wanted air missiles & tanks) ○ Nuclear weapons aren’t going to protect them if US are landing on their shores ● Soviets admit that it’s to defend Soviet communist system & Raul accepts ■ Khrushchev devises plan to use Cuban missiles to drive global bargain with Kennedy ● Plans to give JFK 2 alternatives: war or give Berlin ● Threat of war is real b/c Soviets have nuclear weapons on US doorstep ● The Berlin/Cuban crisis scheduled for November 1962 ○ Once missiles are in Cuba & in operation ■ SAM (Serviced Air Missiles) ● Sent to Cuba first ■ Why the Secrecy?

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Have to cross from Baltic States to Cuba (across Atlantic Oceans) where the British, Norwegians, Spanish, & US were covering territory (members of NATO)

Page 6 10/31/2019 Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis What US picks up, July-August, on Cuba ● July 31: NSA sends intelligence report [TS/DINAR] saying that Soviet vessels in Cuba trade “making false port declarations;” “declaring less than known carrying capacity.” Noted “absence of commercial trade messages, which normally provide cargo info.” ● August 6: CIA reports to JFK that 11 Soviet merchant ships are on their way to Havana; delivering close to full amount of arms delivered in first half of 1962 ● August 29: U-2 photographs 8 SAM (surface air missiles) sites over Cuba ○ They now realize that their U-2s can be shot down ● Essentially, Soviets are now building up Cuban military & are building SAM that can shoot down U-2s (thus, they don’t want the US to know) Politics, August 30, 1962: Senator Kenneth Keating - Midterm Election ● Liberal Republican ● Claims that he has evidence that Soviets are placing missiles in Cuba JFK isn’t protecting country ○ Evidence was wrong (b/c Soviets hadn’t yet sent any); getting them from Cuban emigres who are exaggerating ○ Confused with SAMs ● JFK is nervous b/c he thinks that intelligence had leaked SAM info. & didn’t want Republicans to know amidst midterms Kennedy’s First Big Mistake ● Kennedy stops distribution of any unconfirmed reports on offensive missiles in Cuba to prevent leaks to Congress or the press ● He doesn’t realize that his own daily intelligence brief is affected ○ They stopped disseminating for the president as well His Second Mistake ● JFK believes crisis will be over Berlin ● Khrushchev tells West German ambassador in early September that he intends to launch another Berlin crisis in November ● JFK doesn’t want to be distracted by Cuba when real problem is in Europe ● Also paying for limitations on intelligence dissemination he imposed in early September ○ Didn’t want Cubans to shoot down U-2s right before election, so tells intelligence to reduce flights Kennedy draws a Red Line, Sept. 1962 ● Convinced that Soviets will make trouble in Berlin, rather than Cuba ● Issues a statement that US wouldn’t accept placement of offensive missiles in Cuba ○ Did it for domestic political reasons (“I will defend country”)

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Not intended for Soviets

Sept 10: at request of SecState no more long overflights of Cuba ● Two U-2 incidents ● August 30: U-2 strayed over Sakhalin ● Sept 8: Chinese shootdown U-2 flown by Nationalist Chinese (Taiwans on behalf of US) ● Sept 8: US intel reports 12 confirmed SAM sites ● Sept 15: NSA intercepts first SAM radar. First SAM close to operational JFK saw none of these reports - they were excluded from his PDB [Checklist] - couldn’t be corroborated b/c they couldn’t fly over Cuba. ● Sept 15: a resident of Havana mails a report containing secret writing to the US. Says that Soviets are heavily guarding a large zone west of Havana in Pinar del Rio - perimeter bounded by San Cristobal ○ Disseminated Sept. 18 ● Sept 18: Cuban refugee in imami reports Soviet trucks pulling long trailers carrying canvas-covered objects. Shown photos of Sov. missiles, he identifies MRBM ○ Disseminated mid-Sept ● Oct 1: CIA disseminated another exile report of Soviet convoy with 32-foot trailers JFK slowly pressured to change U-2 policies ● Spy reports slowly force change in U-2 policy ● October 3: DIA pushes for overflight of Western Cuba ● October 5: US intel community request that overflight be made ● Oct 9: JFK’s Special Group authorizes overflight ● October 14: U-2 flies over western Cuba, first offensive missile site found Cuban Missile Crisis ● Khrushchev’s plan is failed Oleg Penkovsky’s role ● US/British mole in the Soviet GRU (military intelligence service) ● Stole manuals for the missiles US figured out the deployment patterns ● Combination of SIGINT & Humint to give JFK, with certainty, info that Soviets had given Cubans missiles What the U-2 Finds ● Atomic barrage ○ Soviets had decided to provide 50,000 men & 12 battle field nukes (Lunas) ○ US hadn’t anticipated this as they were debating on invasion of Cuba ● Foxtrots with nuclear-tipped torpedoes ○ Submarines to protect the ships with the warheads & missiles (from across the Atlantic)

Page 8 In first week, JFK opts for Naval Quarantine ● JFK changes his mind & starts to fly U-2s regularly over Cuba NSK caught off guard. Overreacts. Then decides to seek a way out ● Intelligence plays a secondary role in the crisis itself ● Oct 23: NSA info determines that U-2 Shootdown, Oct 27. Events spiraling out of control. Rudolf Anderson, the only casualty of the Crisis ● Oct 27: Khrushchev demands a public deal ○ No invasion of Cuba ○ Removal of US Jupiter Missiles in Turkey near USSR ○ Khrus. Issues a public statement that if you want a deal, you have to promise not to invade Cuba & remove your missiles from Turkey & UK (that were aimed at the Soviets) ● U-2 shot down in Cuba - Anderson pilot of U-2 dies ● US thought that the Soviets had done this & fear that crisis will spiral out of control ○ Later learns that it’s a mistake; local Soviet commander had done it w/o Moscow authorization ● Kennedy offers a secret deal ○ RFK, the secret envoy, and the Jupiters ○ Meets on behalf of USSR & claims that Soviets must keep it a secret JFK’s Secrets ● Turks & American people not told. JFK uses a friendly journalist to create impression he opposed this idea. JFK actually edits the article in the Saturday Evening Post ○ Weren’t aware of how crisis was dealt with peacefully b/c they didn’t know about the deal ● Khrush. Keeps the secret too Dr. No (1962) ● Released in US, May 1963 ● First James Bond movie JFK vs. LBJ ● JFK: January 1961 - November 1963 (34 months): 163 covert actions approved by Special Group ● LBJ: November 1963 - February 1967 (39 months): 142 covert actions approved by 5412/303 Committee ● Source: Church Committee, Final Report ● Name of President omitted; seemed like there was a deep state JFK inherited a bunch of Eisenhower Covert Actions: But that isn’t the only reason ● Italy: Inherited ○ Weakness of Christian Democrats in face of strength of PCI

Page 9 US started supplying money to Christian Democrats & Italian Trade Unions at high rate in 1955 ○ JFK was uncomfortable with this program - he found these amounts excessive - Bundy called it “our annual shame” - and US started scaling them back People’s Republic of China: Inherited ○ Taiwanese guerrillas ○ Support for Dalai Lama ○ Aimed to overthrow Mao Ze Dong Congo: Inherited ○ Assassination plot vs. Patrice Lumumba ○ Lumumba killed by Belgians in February 1961 ○ US covert action vs. his supporters ○

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Liberal vs. Conservative difference is not helpful here ● Kennedy brought Liberal internationalists into national security community. They believed in intervention in foreign countries, sometimes even covertly ● But done differently Fears of Castroism (revolutionary Marxism) in Western Hemisphere ● Leads to old style Eisenhower-era covert action (supporting the right & assassination plots) ● And new style JFK Alliance for Progress reports ○ New policy towards Latin America ○ Assumed that PBSUCCESS was incompatible with new approach to South & Central America

Page 10 11/05/19 JFK and Covert Action Liberal vs. Conservative Difference is not helpful here ● Kennedy brought Liberal internationalists into national security community. They believed in intervention in foreign countries, sometimes even covertly ○ Liberals believed that it was not only in the interest of the US but also other countries for certain extent of interventionism to be good ○ Conservatives also believed in the power of covert action but didn’t necessarily have the same objectives (e.g., land or social reform in the target country) ■ Concerned mainly with communism ○ US didn’t intervene for material objectives (i.e., oil) at the time ● Thus, consensus between both liberal & conservatives that intervening in foreign countries can be in the interest of the US (despite different objectives) ● But done differently Fear of Castroism (revolutionary Marxism) in Western Hemisphere ● Leads to old style Eisenhower-era covert action (supporting the right and assassination plots) ● And new style JFK Alliance for Progress covert action (supporting the Left and political institutions) ○ Liberal performers who want reform ● Kennedy senses that he needs to provide an alternative to Castros (that isn’t Eisenhower/United Fruit Company) Trujillo and his family were thieves ● One of the richest men in the Americas (dictators) ● Bribed US Congress members to ensure that Domincan Republican sugar was controlled ● US produced sugar & had long-standing relationship with the Philippines & buying their sugar Island of Hispaniola DR: As Influential as B ay of Pigs on US Covert Action - Covert Alliance for Progress ● May/June 1961 events in the DR are very influential on the Kennedy Administration. CIA knew very little about the political opposition to Trujillo and overestimated military support for the assassins ● JFK Administration wants covert money to go to the Left. Eisenhower administration sent assistance to kill Trujillo but not to build democratic institutions. Kennedy also tried to bribe Trujillo out. ● After Trujillo’s death, Kennedy approves covert financing to center & left parties (Fall 1961-Early 1962)

Page 11 Success: President Juan Bosch elected President of the Dominican Republic, December 1962 (59.5%) ● US poured money into DR to create circumstances & established Bosch as president ● Social Democrat New model: US respects & cultivates neutrals [Eisenhower had opposed fencesitters in the Cold War] ● Kennedy believed that many leaders in developing world were neutrals ○ Believed that especially in Egypt & Indonesia, they were pushed to Soviets b/c of Eisenhowers ● Kennedy tried to establish relationship with Nkrumah, Sukarno, & nasser - just wants them to remain neutral The Case of British Guiana: JFK Initiative ● British colony ○ On the road to independence ● Racially divided between East Indians & Subjects of African descent ○ Divided population as result of Imperialism ○ African slaves brought over to work on sugar & coffee plantations (owned by the British & Dutch) ○ When British abolished slavery in their empires, they imported people from East India to work on plantations (very cheap labor) ○ Population today: half Afro-Guianese & Indo-Guianese ○ Political division along racial lines ● Cheddi Jagan - Marxist. His wife was member of CPGB ○ Popular politician among Indo-Guianese ○ Idea of Marxist leading South America intimidated Americans ● Jagan’s PPI had mass support from East Indians ● April 6, 1961: JFK admin starts reviewing plans to remove him from Government ○ US begins intervention to defeat Jagan b/c they know that British will pull out & Guiana will no longer be a colony ● Jagan elected Chief Minister (PPP Party), August 1961 election ● Starting in November 1962: CIA began providing covert funding to Jagan’s opponents (by 1968: 2.08 million allocated to this) ● Between November 1961 and 1963: money went to help Forbes Burnham and Peter D’Auguier’s parties in the June 1963 election ○ In racially divided British Guiana, US & American Unions wants to help anti-communist Afro-Guyanese against Indian Marxist ○ Not Guatemala because US not helping a military thug like Armas but this is intervention ● US successfully urged the British to impose Prop Rep on British Guiana ○ Fear of Castro that promotes intervention to alter democracy 1963: Year of Covert Action; JFK faces a series of decisions (Jan-June 1963) ● Concerns over Guatemala ● State Department proposes overthrow of Diem in South Vietnam

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RFK & CIA propose new secret campaign against Castro CIA, State, and WH propose secret operation against Du...